英国圣安德鲁斯大学 (University of St Andrews)：谢佩岛机场终端能力，飞机起降时段及货运概述

Terminal capacity and shortfall
终端能力和不足

However, it is clear that in the South East demand outstrips capacity. Using Scenario s02, the maximum capacity of the London airports is shown in Table 1: (4)
然而，很显然，在东南方的需求超过容量。 （4）使用情景S02，伦敦机场的最大容量，如表1所示：

The other airports in the South East currently have a combined passenger volume of ~2mppa and a potential capacity of 3 times that, however many of these airports service local markets more than the larger London market and as such are unlikely to take on the extra demand in the same way as the 5 London airports will.
在南方地区的其他机场目前有合并载客量〜2mppa和潜在的能力的3倍，然而，许多这些机场的服务当地市场超过较大的伦敦市场，因此不大可能采取额外需求在相同的方式中的5伦敦机场。

However, if we assume these other South East airports will service 6mppa by 2030, this gives us a total capacity of 200mppa with the current airport infrastructure.
然而，如果我们假设这些其他东南亚的机场服务6mppa到2030年，这为我们提供了总容量为200mppa目前机场基础设施。

The estimate of demand for 265mppa by 2030 means that a new airport with adequate transport links in a sensible location – so as to serve as a ‘London airport’ – could be expected to serve a minimum 65mppa by 2030 if all other airports were at capacity – a 24.5% share of the South East. Given that we have used the most recent forecasts (mid-level figures) with a maximum usage scenario, this gives us a safe lower bound for demand.
鉴于我们已经使用了最新的预测（中间级人物）与最大使用量的情况下，这给了我们一个安全的需求下限。

However depending on the location of the airport, it may be expected to take an additional share of passengers from other London airports. A modest 3-5% additional share would mean, on average, an additional 10mppa using the new airport - 75mppa in 2030.
但是，根据机场的位置上，它可能会采取额外的股份乘客从伦敦其他机场。一个温和的3-5％的额外股份将意味着，平均而言，在2030年一个的附加10mppa使用新机场 - 75mppa。  http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/

In addition, with air travel growth set to continue after 2030, while it may no longer be safe to assume no further development of other South East airports, to be feasible this new airport would be expected to maintain at minimum its 28-30% share of the South East market. This would equate to in excess of 200mppa by 2050, which may not be a realistic figure for a new London airport but shows that future expansion of the new airport is likely to be viable in terms of passenger demand.#p#分页标题#e#
此外，随着航空旅行的增长将继续在2030年之后，虽然它可能不再是安全的，不承担任何其他东南机场的进一步发展，是可行的这个新机场将有望保持在最低的28-30％份额东南亚市场。

Runway slots
飞机起降时段

In 2009, the average number of passengers per commercial flight at the five London airports was 128, while at the other South East airports this figure was much lower at 30, due to the significant proportion of local and smaller flights. (6)
2009年，五个伦敦机场的商业航班乘客每平均数为128，而在其他东南亚机场，这个数字低得多，在30℃，由于本地和较小航班显著比例。（6）

However with increasing demand comes a change in both available aircraft size and in the proportion those aircraft are filled. This is not often taken into account in many forecasts.

Since 1990, average passenger numbers on commercial flights in the South East has increased by 1% per year, (6) and with a shortage of available runway slots in the South East this trend is expected to continue. Currently most operators on average across the year still run with some capacity on flights, and we are therefore likely to see larger numbers of full aircraft. In addition, while recently low cost airlines (that rarely use the largest aircraft) have taken a proportion of market share, many major operators are being seen to invest in new larger aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and the forthcoming Boeing Dreamliner.
此外，在最近的低成本航空公司（很少使用最大的飞机）已经采取了比例的市场份额，许多主要的运营商都被视为投资于新的大型飞机，如空客A380和即将推出的波音客机。

By 2030, therefore the average number of passengers per commercial flight in and out of London airports may have potentially increased to 150-160. A terminal throughput of 75mppa therefore also equates to forecast requirement for 470,000 to 500,000 runway slots (take-offs and landings) for commercial passenger aircraft per year in the South East.

Freight
货运

In 2009 total UK air freight was 2.05 million tonnes and London’s airports accounted for 76% of this volume. [CAA Freight 2009] While, due to the global economic recession, this actually represents a 7% reduction on levels 10 years earlier, the volume air freight is expected to increase around 3-fold over the next 20 years. (5)
在2009年英国空运为205万吨和伦敦的机场占76％，本卷。 [CAA货运2009]同时，由于全球经济衰退，这实际上减少了7％，10年前的水平，成交量空运预计在未来20年增加3倍左右。 （5）

While freight does not generally have a direct impact on terminal throughput, it is a contributor to demand for runway capacity. With Heathrow’s and Gatwick’s runways both operating at near capacity, freight traffic has moved to other airports such as Stansted and Birmingham (5). Anticipated freight demand at the London airports is shown below, with a forecast for freight demand at a new London airport and continued significant use of Stansted: (5)#p#分页标题#e#
预计在伦敦机场的货运需求如下图所示，在新伦敦机场的货运需求预测和继续大量使用斯坦斯特德：（5）

Another important factor is that the express parcel sector is expected to increase its share from 20% in 1998 to more than half of total air freight. (5) The short delivery times associated with these packages are likely to increase the demand for night flights. Therefore, as well as being able to cope with additional demand for runway slots, any new airport would benefit from 24-hour flight operation by being able to support this express parcel demand.
另一个重要因素是，快递包裹部门预计将增加其份额从1998年的20％，空运总量的一半以上。 （5）

Therefore 500,000 runway slots would need to be serviced by 2030. This could be achievable with widely-spaced (>1000m) two runway scheme and the latest technology in aircraft traffic management. (2) Supporting additional capacity in the future will require further development and the addition of one or two runways at later stage (2040).
因此，500,000飞机起降时段，到2030年将需要进行维修。这可能是实现广泛间距（>1000米），两个跑道方案和航空交通管理的最新技术。 （2）支持额外的容量在未来将需要进一步发展和另外一个或两个跑道后期（2040）。