奥林匹克对东伦敦房地产影响研究

奥林匹克对于东伦敦房地产市场的影响力

 

摘要
 

本dissertation的目的是为了测验2012年伦敦奥林匹克运动会和它对于东伦敦区域内的房地产市场所引起的含义。本文提供了一个区域和基础设施的发展概况，经济和生态分析，并同时显示了举办奥运会的优缺点。
 

“奥林匹克省会的经济影响”是中华人民共和国2009年的报道，它表示，国家和国际所承认的主办城市能通过媒体曝光获利；新的公司在城市里投资，以及频繁的媒体曝光，包括创业，培训和教育项目的社会性福利；社会经济发展项目和文化项目的筹资；资助基础设施效益，以及巨大的住房影响，它们预期在奥林比克会结束以后会实现。东伦敦的绿色空间再生额意外的计划包括：创造在奥林匹克公园西部的绿色空间和新能源空间，来支持2012年伦敦承诺使用可再生和高效能源的技术，和可供房资源。
 

Olympic games effect on the east london property market
 

ABSTRACT

 

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the 2012 London’s Olympic Games and implication it caused on the property market within East London area. The paper delivers an area and infrastructure development overview, economical and ecological analysis, and shows both the advantages and disadvantages of hosting the games.

 

“Economic Impacts of Olympic Games” report 2009 by PWC stated that national and international recognition of the host city through extensive media exposure; community benefits including job creation, training and education programs; funding for community economic development projects and cultural programs; infrastructure benefits; new company investment in the city, and increased trade; and housing impacts is immense are expected to be achieved after the end of the Olympics. Additional plans for regeneration of East London include creation of green spaces and a new energy centre in the west of the Olympic Park to support London 2012 commitment to use renewable and energy-efficient technology, and affordable housing. The benefit from extensive investments in transport infrastructure will make it ideally connected both internationally and locally.

 

The arrival of DLR and the Jubilee Line has made a huge impact on revitalizing East London. Further, Crossrail - Stratford to Heathrow, Eurostar International Station at Stratford, City financial developments and Canary Wharf office space expansion will make a substantial contribution. With its excellent transport links, the area is a regeneration hotspot and has positive impact, which the London Olympics help creating. A location that sees a regeneration and development for the better is likely to attract strong demand and see prices rising substantially. The money started moving in and prices have rocketed and still expect a potential growth after a residential and commercial development emerging until 2020. The extent of impact on house prices appears to be dependent upon the size of the housing market in the city.#p#分页标题#e#

 

The Olympic legacy is that after the games, East London will receive facelift; a large park and the athletes’ village will become at least 5000 homes. Many of the key investment areas within once bleak East London are likely to be positively impacted by new infrastructure developments in the years to follow. Despite the recent global financial recession a rapid recovery is soon expected with property price increase in East London starting 2010 and onwards. (PropertyInvesting.net team, 2009) London is likely to stay a significant global financial centre that provides relatively high paid employment.

 

CHAPTER I

 

INTRODUCTION

 

“The ‘legacy’ of the Olympic Games will be manifold. Many areas of London and other parts of the UK and the lives of thousands of individuals will be touched by the Games. There will be many intangible benefits, and a significant effect on the reputation of London lasting for decades”. (Going for Gold: Transport for London's 2012 Olympic Games, 2006)

 

The primary and secondary research of East London (Newham) regeneration arrangements was conducted, and the findings provided valuable information for the context of this study project. For the purpose of the paper a case of Barcelona Games and their influence on property market and area profile was used, demonstrating the correlation between Olympics and the property market in Barcelona in 1992 and will draw likelihood parallel. The case aimed to provide the experience and implications of hosting of major world event. The study examines anticipated benefits for the real estate perspective. It also profiles the impact of hosting the Games on the office, retail and residential sectors.

 

1.1 Background

 

The planning and preparations for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games in London have already generated a significant activity. The coming years expect even more intense action towards the delivery of the 2012 Games - the regeneration plans for a large number of urban green spaces and upgrading of amenities in the area. The Olympic legacy is that after the games, Stratford high street will receive a 10 million pound facelift; a large park and the athletes’ village will become at least 5,000 privately owned and affordable homes. This research project was set up to develop an analytical framework for investigating and reporting the impacts from the Games, concentrating on East London property market, both now and in the future – post Olympic period. One of the key objectives is to be able to demonstrate and understand the impacts on people, communities, the economy and environment.

 

1.2 Rationale

 

The existing studies have explored the relationship between Olympic Games, the planned regeneration of the area and property values. However, few have looked at the relationship between Olympic Games and desire for people to invest and relocate to this part of the city. It is hoped, therefore, that, at a higher level, this paper shall make a contribution to a field of research, which has been little studied, but which undoubtedly has implications for planners, businesses, investors and the local population. It should, however, be noted that Olympics are never held in the same country twice, thus constructing predictions based on the previous case studies should be made with care, and take into account that all views are merely speculative as Olympic development is yet to be completed in London.#p#分页标题#e#

 

1.3 Objectives

 

The objectives of this dissertation are (1) to indentify and analyze influence of factors such as Olympics development, (2) difficult economic climate and exchange rates fluctuations, and (3) explore the effects of regeneration characteristics on property market in the area. In order to pursue these objectives, a detailed literature review of previous researches, including scholars, was carried out, as well as an analysis of the economic situation at the time the Games were announced and the present. Several case studies were looked at and supplementary secondary data was also used in order to understand the reasons behind London’s bid for the Olympics 2012.

 

1.4 Research Questions

 

The following questions are to be answered:

 

Understand the residential market in East London and whether the development of the area with Olympic games being held in 2012 will make it possible to see likely trends?

 

Could the view on Olympic games as a “catalyst for delivering sustainable communities and affordable homes transform East London” live up to expectations?

 

Is London’s plan to use the Olympic Games to re-urbanize its eastern suburbs realistic?

 

1.5 Scope

 

The limited time frame of this project has necessitated a focus on specific area of East London. This research study is focusing on the property market of the primary location of Olympic Games. As the property industry is a vital component in the UK’s economy the scope of this paper is to analyze the East London borough in order to identify whether there is any evidence to suggest that the Olympic Games have an effect upon residential standards of living, desirability and property prices within the same locality.

 

1.6 Structure

 

The report is structured in a way in which firstly, the ambition and desired legacy is briefly described. Aspects related to the property impact will not be considered at this stage, but rather, demographics can be portrayed in terms of population, education, employment and socio-political benefits as a base to what will fundament the primary research.

 

The study then moves on to the understanding of the property industry. This part covers an overview of recession and business interest in the future property market of East London. The analysis continues with an examination of the regeneration of the area and property figures as key enablers of the economic growth. Alongside, the analysis will include the views of economists, businesses and individuals’ main motivations for choosing previously economically deprived area for their investment and relocation.

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All findings derived from literature research, analysis and summary of questionnaires are presented in the conclusion. Having an understanding of the current situation will allow investors and other interested parties to have the clear picture that will certainly help to make decisions whether investment/relocation will be the correct move for the future. The limitations and recommendations are to follow in the last section of this project.

 

CHAPTER II

 

METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH

 

2.1 Research Approach

 

Given that the subject requires observations, statistical numbers, and the expert’s opinion in the industry for conducting a thorough research and analysis, the methodologies used for this project were based on a qualitative research mostly based on the opinion of economists, property market analysts and journalists who can describe the Olympic events, its social environments and the impact on the property market.

 

In supporting this project the data collection involved the use of both primary and secondary data research. The primary data was collected in the form of questionnaires that were answered by east London property market professionals; these discussions were focused on the Olympic developments, explore the strategic pitfalls of regeneration form their experience and review of future market predictions. The primary research consisted in formal interviews to various individuals working as full-time employees in varied areas of property market, such as sales, research analysis, and developers, provided insightful views about the area of regeneration.

 

Furthermore, a case study approach was chosen as the research method, as it “investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context and addresses situations in which the boundaries between phenomenon and content are not clearly evident”. (Meyer, 2001) This way the research benefited from combination of various levels of analysis: data collection methods such as observations, interviews, questionnaires and archives. (Eisenhardt, 1989) It also allowed producing answers to questions like “why” and “how”. (Saunders et al., 2009) The data collection was conducted in a form of open questions, however, due to the nature of the facts revealed, the participants identities were agreed to be confidential.

 

For the compilation of secondary data, extensive literature reviews of the real estate industry were done. For this purpose, various data was sourced from existing market analysis, such as: market and governmental bodies reports from various literature publications and online resources, including Google Scholars, related books, business and industry reports via the EBSCO database. The focus was made on overall market performance in the UK and consumer behavior patterns in previous Olympic hosts. Additionally, a variety of articles in the FT, Mintel and industry reports were reviewed to investigate the UK property market industry and its present and future trends. Other articles based on individual review of writers in newspapers and periodical journals were mentioned within the literature review.#p#分页标题#e#

 

2.2 Primary Data (Qualitative Research)

 

2.2.1 Data Collection

 

Qualitative primary research was undertaken through data collection from a number of in depth questionnaires given the exploratory nature of the project. The primary qualitative data approach was chosen as it provides more descriptive textual information of parties’ opinions and data collected this way generally is a better tool for describing and understanding a phenomenon. (Weston et al, 2001) The questionnaires allowed interviewed public for greater time in considering their answers and encouraged a free expression of views within respondents’ own frames of reference. The questionnaire (Appendix A) consisted of a standard number of questions for each respondent with the closing question: “Would the interest for east London properties, in particular Stratford, increase after the 2012 Games?” - the question of the main interest of the research. It will demonstrate the professional view for relocation and investment desirability in East London.

 

Seven questionnaires contained 12 questions and were sent to the following parties:

 

Executive employees within real estate agencies

 

Property market analysts

 

Private Developers and entrepreneurs

 

Real estate industry consultant.

 

A range of respondents presented a well-rounded sample of views.

 

2.2.2 Data Analysis summary review

 

Based on the questionnaire the most frequently mentioned factors were drawn and the effects are discussed below summarizing the viewpoints of real estate professionals and property investors.

 

The demographic situation in East London area at present is low to mid income individuals and families, with a greater number of students based within the University of East London area. Since the games were announced in 2005 property prices rose by approx 10 per cent virtually overnight. Further they have ebbed and flowed with the rest of the London property market, with no significant uplift as yet. The situation has not stabilized, as recession influenced the buying ability of customers enormously. Large deposits require by lenders have stymied the market. Reasons for buying in the area at the moment, two years before the Olympics, is mainly investment, as in the mid to long term it should see a significant capital appreciation on the property. The predictions are based on the fact that in general ‘Olympic effect’ has not yet taken place and, for instance, Stratford properties are one of the cheapest areas to buy in London. Post Games investments should see the rise through the ranks to become fairly sought after, thus in couple of years after the Games it is likely that people will be looking to live in the area for its amenities, lifestyle and what will be – superb facilities. Buy-to-live purchasers will choose the area because of shopping, bars, restaurants, sports facilities, parks, new schools etc. There are, however predictions, that East of London might experience the post Games slump in the property prices, especially for modern style flats, due to high supply of new properties onto the market.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Shoreditch and Hackney are closer to the city and have a higher proportion of large housing stock. The demand for large houses also increases the demand for better bars, restaurants, etc., which then further lead to the increased desirability of the area. Stratford has smaller properties and though the new infrastructure is being constructed, none of it is yet open or in use. Once it is, the prices will be likely to rise accordingly. Olympic effect on quality of east Londoners’ life should improve greatly, however it will take place only in the mid-long terms, when parks, shopping, schools, sporting facilities are transformed and complete in year 2014. That is the time when professionals predict the increase in interest in East London properties. Socio-political climate will potentially improve in the future. It is though unlikely in a short term to attract a higher income households, as they have more freedom to choose where they wish to live. A neighborhood, at the same time, will offer a range of dwelling types by size, configuration, tenure, design and price, accommodating households of lower incomes with a place to start and get into the property ladder. It is expected to have an enormous number of first-time buyer to be moving into the area and young families, and professionals, who will relocate for amities of the area with its bars, restaurants and shopping, and good transport connections.

 

2.2.3 Findings and Conclusion

 

To summarize the questionnaires it has to be said that house prices arguably influenced by the Olympics are expected to rise at least 5 per cent faster per annum than the UK market generally. Although many districts close to the Olympic Park have already seen 10 per cent house price growth, Stratford is the exception. It is predicted that the prices in E15 will likely to grow in the long term, because the area socio-political climate is unlikely to improve over night. Despite the slow rise in the prices, the area sees grown interest from investors. Further, most of the professionals who took part in the research agreed that the area is most likely to be popular among first-time buyers, as the prices near Olympic Village are still lowest in London.

 

2.3 Secondary Research (Case-Study)

 

2.3.1 Urban Transformation of Barcelona

 

Prior to 1992 Barcelona’s coastline was one of the least desirable districts of the city, full of disused warehouses and dilapidated industrial land. A prime reason for the bid to host the Olympics in 1992 for Barcelona was the need for a catalyst to boost the local economy of the Catalonia. The region was in desperate need of a major urban regeneration. The greatest legacy achieved in Barcelona was the total makeover of area leaving Olympic Village seafront - one of the most desired property locations. All these factors significantly affected superior property price growth in house prices – with more than a three times increase in house prices during the six years prior to 1992. The Mayor of Barcelona: “The Olympics was the big excuse to change Barcelona’s position in the world…before, it was an industrial city. Now it is a city of knowledge, a global city.” (Slot, 2008)#p#分页标题#e#

 

Funding: Barcelona adopted a mixed public/private sector model with the government financed approximately 65 per cent of the total cost (5.3 billion US Dollars) of the Games. (Brunet, 1995)

 

Economic Impact: The Games are estimated to have generated the greatest economic benefit, adding 16.6 billion US Dollars to the Spanish economy in seven years, between 1986 and 1993. (Sànchez, Plandiura, Vali?o, 2007) Investment in the area helped reduce Barcelona's unemployment rate from 18.4 to 9.6per cent in 1986 and 1992 respectively. (Autonomous University of Barcelona, 2007)

 

Urban impact: The revitalization of increasingly run-down urban areas was an explicit aim of the Barcelona Games. The development of Olympic Villages was a key part of the regeneration - urban centers were constructed, including not only housing, but also supporting retail, other community facilities. While largely utilizing existing infrastructure, some additional facilities were built, e.g. shopping mall. (Brunet, 1995)

 

Infrastructure: Another major benefit is the chance it offers to develop new infrastructure projects from which the host city benefits long after the Games have moved on. The most obvious additions are new stadium and other facilities built specifically for the Olympics, and generate ongoing income for cities through the attraction of subsequent major sporting events. (Slot, 2008)

 

Real estate: Construction activity that upgraded the housing stock, occupancy rates, rentals and prices had the major impacts on real estate markets. Barcelona experienced rapid increases in housing prices and rentals in their respective Olympic years. The impact on the residential market was pronounced - the Olympics cited as a major contributor to increases in residential values of between 250 and 300 per cent over the period 1986–1993. The residential construction increased by 23 per cent between 1988 and 1991, compared to increases of 5 per cent in the hotel and 12 per cent in the office markets. (Reaching Beyond the Gold, 2001)

 

The supply of housing: Between 1986 and 1991 a significant amount of residential construction took place in Barcelona, although this increase was not constant. The amount of housing for sale decreased, even though the building sector was in expansion. The supply of newly-constructed houses during the period experienced a cumulative increase of 101.5 per cent. From 1993 onwards, the economic recession had a harsh effect on the building sector with reduction of 34 per cent in the amount of housing for sale. (Reaching Beyond the Gold, 2001)

 

The prices of houses for sale and to rent: From 1986 to1993, there was a 139 per cent cumulative increase and increases in housing prices were more restrained (2 per cent increase in 1993). Between 1986 and 1993, there was also a 144.5 per cent increase in rent, which remained high in successive years until 1993, when rents started to decrease. (Sànchez, Plandiura, Vali?o, 2007)#p#分页标题#e#

 

Office Market: The Olympic inspired economic boom of 1986-1990 led to a major increase in construction of office space - approximately 850 thousand square meters was built. However, the office market peaked in 1991, with rentals declining by almost 50 per cent influenced by increasing supply, but by 1994 the market once again reached equilibrium. (Sànchez, Plandiura, Vali?o, 2007)

 

2.3.2 Conclusion

 

The Olympics represented the beginning of a new city Barcelona, with the expansion of its geographical borders and the massive development of infrastructure. The new roads contributed to the increase of employment, retail and residential mobility and due to the nature and the size of regeneration of the project between 1986 and 1993, Barcelona carried out the most important urban change in Europe at the time.

 

CHAPTER III

 

LITERATURE REVIEW

 

The hosting of an Olympic Games has a significant impact on the Host City however, publication “The environment and sustainable development update ” asks a valid question: “to what extent, with what results and with what benefits ”. (International Olympic Committee, 2009) Most of the publications on Olympics and other major events that were researched are relevant in order to answer the main question of this project paper, whether the regeneration of East London will make it attractive for people to relocate to, and will the likely trends follow. The main subjects covered in the literature are the economic impact of the Games on the city and its implication of consumer spending behavior, improvements in infrastructure and transport that makes the area more desirable for people to live in.

 

The literature review was conducted through research of academic journals, mainly found through Google Scholars, on-line database including Bloomberg, FT, Business week and other reliable sources. Number of books and publications were used to help explain the situation of the property market and the factors that have significant influence on the demand and prices of the real estate. Furthermore, the publications of the Governmental bodies: the International Olympic Committee, the British Olympic Association, the Olympic Delivery Authority and the Commission for a Sustainable London among others, as well as, Internet research, mainly the EBSCO database, were accessed several times in order to find any relevant and up to date information to form a basis for the solid argumentative analysis of the project.

 

The economic downturn has affected every aspect of business market in one way or another, and property market is not an exception. This notion drove a release of an immense amount of different information formats, including: articles, columns, blogs, websites and printed publications. Only some of this information is relevant to the research project, thus it is extremely vital to extract the relevant points of information required for the purpose of this paper without moving too far away from the set aims and objectives. After extensive research two relevant publications were selected. The views of PWC and Halifax estate agency were used within this paper as to express the professional opinion on the property situation at the time of the recession, present and in post Olympic period.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Moreover, the PWC report examined several categories of impact in London: the socio-economic health impact, which takes into account how potential socio-economic development affect public health through levels of income and job security, and on social cohesion, access to housing and education. Further, Olympics 2012 are believed to inspire children to “choose Olympic sports”, promoting better social environment, less teenage crime. (Price, Dayan, 2008) The above factors are crucial for the successful area regeneration and creation a family oriented climate, however these effects will only be visible in the long run.

 

Research focused around the Olympics 2012 housing market and the regeneration. A key article that links strongly to the title of the project is: “Olympic Games Impact Study” (OGIS). (PWC, 2005) The material has proven to be extremely useful, containing a substantial amount of information about the bid and benefits of hosting the Olympics in London 2012. It defines the scope of the potential impacts on social, economic and environmental life. Section four of the paper that has mainly been used and believed to have high credibility, concentrates on the analysis of the environmental impact. It concludes: “the overall environmental impact is expected to be significantly positive in the Lower Lea Valley during and after hosting the Olympics although there are some negative environmental impacts to be managed during the construction process.”

 

Academic study “Reaching beyond the gold: the impact of global events on urban development” (Vrijaldenhoven, 2007) deals with three types of global events, one of which is Olympic Games. “Global events are used for numerous city problems. These problems can fall into various categories. Cities could, for example, be dealing with rapid expansion, a decrease in the number of inhabitants, a lack of tourist visits, or major infrastructural disorder. Many city governments believe that these problems can be solved by organising a global even in the city”. (Vrijaldenhoven, 2007)

 

Indeed, “The Mayor of London, through the London Development Agency, is investing in new infrastructure and in the remediation, release and development of land for new industry and housing. Through creative masterplanning and urban strategies, we will ensure that regeneration will be sustained”. (Bishop, 2010) In fact, London’s five legacy commitments that were set out by then Mayor Livingstone and after re-election since 2005; validated by Mayor Johnson are, as follows (A 2012 legacy for London and Londoners, 2010):

 

increase opportunities for Londoners to become involved in sport

 

ensure Londoners benefit from new jobs, businesses and

 

volunteering opportunities

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transform the heart of east London

 

deliver a sustainable Games and developing sustainable communities

 

showcase London as a diverse, creative and welcoming city.

 

The Legacy Masterplan Framework publication, 2009, highlighted that quality of life is fundamental to the well-being of Londoners and to attract capital.

 

All contemporary cities need to address:

 

the way they house their citizens

 

the relationship between transport and development

 

the quality and attractiveness of their physical spaces and

 

the way they meet the challenges posed by climate change.

 

Vrijaldenhoven, further in his work, discusses in details the increased interest of different countries to be chosen to hold such event. It illustrates a perspective on the urban strategies cities use when dealing with global events, insight into the character of global events and their impact on city development, and past cases, such as Barcelona, that has proven to be a useful example for this research. “The similarities are clear. London, like Barcelona, has in mind an Olympics that will transform a large area of industrial wasteland”. (Slot, 2008) “The Olympics was the big excuse to change Barcelona’s position in the world…before, it was an industrial city. Now it is a city of knowledge, a global city.” (Hereu, 2010)

 

London Olympics bid for the Games 2012 highlighted the plan to provide affordable housing for people; in fact, the goal of the government was to provide 50 per cent of affordable houses for people in East London area - the center of Olympic Village and the biggest regeneration in London ever taken. Although, the improvements already taking place show the likelihood of people to change their perception and outlook on the area and its surroundings, thus, boosting demand, this is likely to push the prices to rise. Another issue with affordable housing target is that it might be extremely tough, almost impossible to achieve as the cost of the land in London area is expensive, especially taking into account the current economic climate. If anything, number of constructions has been dramatically reduced in an economic downturn. Many developers slow or stop their rate of building completely as the margin they are trying to achieve is squeezed by increasing land values, as a result, less affordable housing being built.

 

Although the argument above looks valid, the publication by Greater London Authority of 2008 states: “the weakening market is likely to cause a fall in the number of affordable homes being built. However, as development slows down throughout the industry the proportion of affordable units being built in London may increase.” Furthermore, because the population of Greater London is forecasted to expand by 2015, most experts predict building requirements to keep up with this demand. (Propertyinvesting.net team, 2009) “The combination of the market slowdown and the credit crunch will affect some of the regeneration schemes taking place across London more than others…Well established, desirable and/or prime residential areas are less likely to be affected by the softening market and the credit squeeze due to the underlying strong demand in these locations...Areas associated with the 2012 Olympics will also be less affected by the current market conditions, particularly the area around Stratford and the Lower Lee Valley. This is because these areas will be the focus of the global media in four years time and will offer developers the opportunity to show case what they can do.” (Greater London Authority, 2008)#p#分页标题#e#

 

Many literature sources on East London and its regeneration show a drawn buyer’s interest. The area is increasingly considered for residential property investment, as it is still a lower priced region that is in a close proximity to central London and city East commercial borders. Most of the biggest developments usually take place in the degenerated and deprived urban areas, where land is usually cheaper and the planning regulations are not so tight and easier to follow, thus more attractive for investors and developers. Therefore, relaxed government policies attract public or private development funding, intending to re-generate areas with the aim to create a new environment, provide employment and improve quality of life. The Olympic village will bring to the market a large amount of new-built properties that are mainly attractive for first-time buyers, investors, young families and city professionals. Obviously, the changes will in the long run and do bring valuable alteration to the infrastructure of the area, but the literature fails to reflect on how socio-political situation of the area is changing and how much effect it will have on housing market, if any. Thus it could have been helpful to see the analysis and comparison to similar cases to enable to make predictions and to reflect on them in this paper.

 

Google Scholar proved to be a useful tool for finding academic journals on the subject of this research paper. One of the extremely useful publications by Adam Blake helped to draw the fuller picture about the economic impact of the Games. Blake’s work not only concentrate on demonstration of the positive influences, that are increasingly discussed by the media prior the bid for the Games, but gives negative past examples that needed to be acknowledged. “Hosting the Olympics has not always brought financial reward. The 1972 Munich Olympics and 1976 Montreal Olympics made losses of 178 million Pounds and 692 million Pounds. The 1984 Los Angeles Olympics and the 1992 Barcelona Olympics made surpluses of 215 million Pounds and 2 million Pounds. This increased economic performance of Games organisers, as well as the increased economic impact of the Games is due to a larger market, particularly for television rights to the Games, but also because the higher costs of the Games with larger competitor numbers and higher expectations of the quality of Olympic venues has meant that organizing committees have had to justify these costs and therefore have been driven to increase revenues and economic impacts”. (Brown, Massey, 2001)

 

It is the fact that global economic downturn had a negative effect on the property prices and on people’s ability to buy due to several factors, i.e. rising unemployment, large deposit requirements from money lending institutions. Despite the fact that the UK as a whole is slowly recovering from 2009 - the pick of the crisis and businesses are starting to make progress and people are feeling more money confident the “UK Housing market is expected to decline by at least 15 per cent during the next 2 years. London is expected to fall as much as 25 per cent. … The house prices are unlikely to see a final bottom until late 2011/early 2012”. (Walayat, 2009) Many sources fail to reflect on the long term effects on Olympic Village property market, especially considering the recent Budget cuts that will affect public sector employees and low to middle class families in general. It is difficult to find information that covers the predicted economic slump of the 2012. “Just when it looked as though lending conditions were starting to ease, the Bank is warning that we could face a second credit crunch”. (Bien, 2010) If this happens, despite affordability of housing and improvements in the area socio-political atmosphere, East London is likely to see buildings empty, due to Banks and building societies decrease in lending.#p#分页标题#e#

 

To conclude, it must be said that there are many views on the property situation of East London in the next years, some extremely encouraging, some are not so bright. There is no one view on the future of the area, just a weighing up of ideas and speculation. Most of the literature though has an extremely positive overview, as it has mainly been written to encourage investors and attract general public interest to the area. Some publications, such as newspaper articles from the Guardian and the Times have a lot of relevant information, to fill in the picture, but were not of a particular use for the paper. As it previously mentioned, a lot of information was printed when the Games were initially announced, thus it mainly has an extremely optimistic outlook on the perspectives of the East London area regeneration, which might give a slightly misleading impression. Area that sees a regeneration and development for the better is likely to attract strong demand and see prices rising substantially ahead. However, “evaluating the effects of mega-events, such as the Olympic Games, is a complex affair. The economic and social costs and benefits for the host city or region are not easily estimated. The evidence available from the experience of cities that have hosted the Olympics over recent decades suggests that the positive claims derived from hosting the event, often made during the bidding competition itself, may be exaggerated.” (Poynter, 2006)

 

CHAPTER IV

 

ANALYSIS

 

The extensive study carried out for the purpose of answering the main questions that were formulated in the Chapter I of the project provided the solid foundation for the analysis of all current trends and permits to make the future intelligent predictions. Olympic Games influence the area of east London in number of ways, providing impacts and changes of different length and depth. Therefore, the below material divided in such a way that highlights the power significance of the impacts, starting from the strongest to less crucial collision on the property market in London. The analysis will demonstrate the current property trends and compare them against the statistics available in the year 2005 when the decision on the Olympic bid was announced and the expected property values of the post Olympic period.

 

Transformation of east London from all activities that are currently carried out in the area - regeneration with its infrastructure and transport improvements, upgrading in education facilities, increased employment – expect to see an enormous demographic change in the future. Furthermore, the investment in the area and an enormous involvement of east London authorities with tremendous help from the public will likely to give great recovery of a socio-economic climate.

 

4.1 Impact

 

4.1.1 Economic Impacts#p#分页标题#e#

 

At the current economic downturn the media, at national and international level, discusses the potential impact of hosting the 2012 London Olympic Games. The reason for this is an intensified pressure on government spending and jobs. First of all it is important to establish what economic impact, in the contest of this research paper, really is. It is a measure generated by capital costs such as spending on, for example, infrastructure upgrades, operating costs - policing and broadcasting, plus tourists spending, or an inward investment and trade. (Halper, 2009) Revenue from related sporting and cultural events brought to the city has positive economic effects. These include: the media, marketing activities, athletes, officials, spectators and visitors. Furthermore, the increased investment in sport infrastructure, such as accommodation and transport, is expected during the run-up to the Games, thus bringing economic benefits. The publicity brought by holding the Games also attracts sponsorship investments.

 

PWC has conducted OGIS to assess the net benefits that would arise from hosting the Olympics in London. It concluded that London's GDP would increase by 5.9 billion Pounds between 2005 and 2016 (refer to table below). Increase of 0.5 billion Pounds was estimated in the five boroughs around the Olympics site: Greenwich, Hackney, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest and 1.9 billion Pounds for the UK as a whole.

 

Table: Summary of expected economic impact (change in GDP, million Pounds), PWC 2005

 

Spatial level

 

Pre-event

 

(2005-2011)

 

During event

 

(2012)

 

Legacy

 

(2013-2016)

 

Overall

 

(2005-2016)

 

North East London

 

464

 

31

 

31

 

525

 

As a % of the London change in GDP

 

13.8%

 

3.4%

 

0.01%

 

8.9%

 

“The largest economic impact in GDP terms would occur in London during the pre-Games construction period whereas, for the UK as a whole, the impact on GDP would be greatest over the period of the Olympics at a level 1.067 billion Pounds. There is an 84.4 per cent chance that the Olympics will have a positive impact on UK GDP over the period 2005-2016: in London the comparable probability is 95.3 per cent. However there is a 10 per cent chance that the UK will lose 517 million Pounds. The study by the University of Nottingham suggests that for the UK as a whole and for London between 11 and 12 per cent of the effect on GDP is attributable to expenditure on infrastructure.” (Matthewman, Kamel, Bearne, 2009) Some other studies done by Dr Blake (2005), Brunet’s (2005) study of the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and InterVistas Consulting study of the 2010 Winter Olympics - all support the view that Olympics bring positive impact for the economy of the host country.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Studies of the impact of previous Olympics have indicated that inward investment has been attracted by preparations for the Olympics. All the impacts however depend upon the size and maturity of the property market of the host city. Smaller and less mature markets, experience a greater impact of the Games. The reason being is that smaller cities use Games to launch themselves onto the international arena. London, however, already has its worldwide presence and is an established city that has been a prime destination for inward investment for decades, thus might be assumed that it does not require any further promotion to attract new entrants. This point however, should be argued. With increased competition from other established and emerging cities London business stable position could be exposed to risks. Olympics, on the other hand, might help to promote awareness of London as a business destination.

 

Furthermore, London is visited widely by tourists and has an immensely rich and sophisticated property market and foreign investors are familiar with the market and require no introduction. Thus, the major opportunity from Olympics for London is in the influences on the urban development through investment in infrastructure and environmental improvements. This will not only determine the success of the Games themselves, but also the degree of long term benefit of East London area and its property market, in particular. The study “Reaching Beyond the Gold” that covers Seoul, Barcelona, Atlanta and Sydney Games supports this statement. It revealed that holding the Olympics helped to revitalize run down urban areas through the design and location of the Olympic Villages. (Jones Lang LaSalle IP Inc., 2010) This is the aim of London Olympics 2012, but the scale of the project is much bigger, in fact, the biggest regeneration project ever held in Europe. Muzon (2010) concludes that the revenue generated by the Olympics tends to exceed the direct costs of hosting the Games, however the extent of any such positive net impact will heavily dependent upon the level of improvements required and the way spending is treated within the financial appraisal.

 

That said, not all views are positive. There are a number of sources that suggest a possible negative economic impact - a study by the European Tour Operators Association, which found that hosting the Olympics did not have a positive effect, for example, on tourism in either Greece or Sydney, in fact it had the opposite effect. (The Financial Times, 2009) The sceptical economists see Olympics bringing just few tangible benefits, comparing to the substantial preparation costs it drain from the country’s economy. Royal Geographical Society published the following: “the 2012 Games will have a negative impact in the following ways: The cost to the wider community: The costs of the Games (such as through tax funding, security and contingency funding) have resulted in the Games costing 9.3 billion Pounds, well above the original budget. An additional 675 million Pounds funding has been allocated through lottery funding. This has resulted in other ‘good causes’ that are also supported by the lottery, receiving lower levels of funding in the run up to the 2012 Games.” (Royal Geographical Society, 2010) Further the publication demonstrates the negative attitude of businesses local to east London: “in a survey undertaken by the Thames Gateway Forum, a number of respondents 26 per cent replied that the Olympics would not be good for their organisation. Around 9 per cent of the 212 businesses, which are required to move away by the end of the year, have yet to agree an ‘exit strategy’ in part because they cannot afford the cost of relocation.” General Manager of Tyrone Textiles Ltd., T. Mayes, made the similar statement: “Hosting the Olympics is great news for the country but for us, as a business, it presented a real challenge”. (Mayes, 2010) The company went through the compulsory purchase of its Stratford facility by the LDA to enable the construction of the Olympic Park.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Despite the negativity, a variety of trade models clears that hosting a mega event like the Olympics encourages national exports and, amongst other benefits, boosts the trade by up to 30 per cent higher in the countries that hosted the Olympics. (Rose, Spiegel, 2009)