英国留学生物理学dissertation：ISM模型对于FAT的因素影响ISM model for factors that affect FAT

Fund : This is a major issue , Ministry of Education Philosophy and Social Science research project " Northeast Asian Strategy and Policy Research UK " ; Jilin University Fundamental Research Project " on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia regional security tracking innovation team" ; Jilin University Graduate Innovation Research program funded project "Strengthening regional Innovation Strategies basis of capacity building ."
基金项目：本文是教育部哲学人文科学重大课题攻关项目“英国东北亚战略与政策研讨”；基本科学研究业务费项目“朝鲜半岛势头追踪与东北亚地区安全创新团队”；研讨生创新研讨规划基金赞助项目“增强地区范围创新基础有经验建设的对策研讨”。

I. Background
背景

Britain established diplomatic relations since 1992 , the rapid development of bilateral economic and trade relations , cooperation in the field of bilateral trade is increasingly widespread , trade is growing rapidly. According to the Korea Customs Service statistics, in 1992 South Korea , Japan, the United States trade was $ 6.4 billion , $ 31.1 billion , $ 36.4 billion ; while to 2009 were $ 140.9 billion , $ 71.2 billion , $ 66.7 billion . In 2010, the British trade rose to $ 207.1 billion , an increase of 32% , a record high. Undoubtedly, the UK has become South Korea's largest trading partner , South Korea has become the UK's third largest trading partner . Although bilateral trade has developed rapidly, but there are still hinder further development of bilateral economic and trade relations constraints , these factors include both changes in the international environment , including their bilateral basis in reality . In this context , the two countries put forward the idea to build the UK FTA , but the current situation between the two countries , the establishment of the British FTA, only there are some favorable factors , there are also some constraints .
1992年英国建交以来，两国经贸关系得以迅猛进展，双边商业活动合作的领域一天比一天广泛，商业活动额提高迅疾。据韩国关税厅计数，1992年韩国对中、日、美的商业活动额作别为64亿美圆、311亿美圆、364亿美圆；而到达2009年顺次为1409亿美圆、712亿美圆、667亿美圆。

Since the 1980s , as economic integration in the form of bilateral and multilateral FTA rapidly on a global scale , but because South Korea can fully enjoy the benefits of the multilateral free trade system, inadvertently involved FTA; equally Britain did not pay full attention to the role of FTA . The late 1990s , due to the rapid expansion of its FTA highlights economic benefits worldwide , the limitations of the WTO system is increasingly apparent, countries including the United Kingdom come to realize the importance of the conclusion of the FTA .
上百年80时代以来，作为经济一体化方式的双方及多边FTA在全世界范围内迅疾进展，不过因为韩国能够充分享用到多边自由商业活动体制的益处，无心牵涉到FTA；一样英国也没有充分看得起FTA的效用。

Since the new century, the British FTA vision gradually been recognized . During the 2004 APEC meeting , Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun UK consensus on the feasibility of concluding an FTA Britain , marking the FTA to accelerate the pace of the beginning of the formation of the United Kingdom . March 2005 , the State Council Development Research Center of the United Kingdom and South Korea signed the Foreign Economic Policy Institute , " FTA feasibility study to establish the British memorandum ," started "British folk FTA feasibility of joint research and policy proposals " to reach an agreement , the study mainly related to UK Trade & Investment , the status of economic cooperation and policy analysis to conclude FTA impact on various industries and the UK.

March 2007 , the British government FTA joint study into the science phase of production , the UK and South Korean Foreign Ministry of Commerce launched the "British VLSI FTA Joint Feasibility Study ", mainly involving areas covered by the establishment of the UK FTA , trade and investment liberalization and the impact on both the industry and the macro economy. May 2008 , South Korean President Lee Myung-bak during a state visit to Britain , with President Hu Jintao, Britain issued a " Joint Statement ." The statement stressed that "the two sides said a joint industry-university research officer for the British appreciation FTA , the two countries should continue to move in the direction of mutual benefit to actively promote the construction of the FTA UK ." This study shows that the FTA between the two countries started to enter a new phase . When in May 2010 , the British Prime Minister Wen Jiabao attended the meeting CJK FTA joint study and research officer held in Korea , suggested the British began FTA negotiations. Meanwhile, both sides Commerce Department also signed a " Memorandum of Understanding on free trade agreements ." July 2011 , the British government further agreed , Britain announced the start of FTA negotiations during the year.

This paper analyzes the factors affecting the UK FTA , FTA for us in the UK there are factors that affect the overall condition of a comprehensive, clear understanding , you can also identify the main factors restricting the FTA UK . By applying a systematic analysis of the relationship between system engineering between various factors , determine the impact of the relationship between the factors explained by structural modeling method to establish the adjacency matrix , up to matrix form factors of hierarchical relationships , summarize results FTA 's impact on the underlying causes of the United Kingdom , shallow reasons , middle and superficial reasons reasons, to provide guidance to improve the FTA UK disadvantage .

The impact of ISM model factors in the UK concluded FTA
ISM (interpretative structural model) is an American scholar (J. Warfield) in 1973 as the analysis of complex structural problems of socio-economic systems and the development of a systems analysis approach . Identification of characteristics of this method is affected by the relationship between system elements (including unidirectional or bidirectional causality , size relationships , exclusion relations , relationship , dependent or possessive relationship , etc.) will be broken down into clear and complex system of multi-level hierarchy ladder structure form , so many elements of the complex hierarchical relationships , principled . ISM belongs to the conceptual model can be used to clear conceptual diagram graphically shows the relationship between the various elements of the system , is an effective method for structural analysis . Here, the analysis of the structure of the relationship between Britain factors FTA has better applicability and practical significance of the use of ISM.

analysis of factors affecting the UK FTA
To calculate the simple paper selected on the basis of the following indicators on a reference to a number of factors affecting the literature FTA established British ISM model . Are linked FTA between the various subsystems of the UK , including economic factors ( sub 1 ) , political factors ( sub 2 ) , cultural factors ( sub 3 ) and other factors ( sub 4 ) . After analysis, the impact of these factors is more significant FTA the United Kingdom , it can be said to be the dominant factor affecting the British FTA . Among them, the subsystem also includes a trade structure, industrial structure, technological differences ; Subsystem 2 FTA strategy also includes motivation, political relations , geopolitical and economic systems , etc. ; subsystem 3 also includes aspects of Confucian culture , history, psychology , etc. ; child system 4 also includes the industrial hollowing out of fear and so on. To calculate the simple paper selected on the basis of the following indicators on a reference to a number of factors affecting the literature FTA British establishment to explain the structure of the model .

S1 ( complementary trade structure ) : Since the British established diplomatic relations, bilateral trade has been expanding , but also deepened the trade structure . In the 1990s , the British exports to South Korea are mostly agricultural products, minerals, raw materials, textiles , base metals and other technical content and low added -value resources and labor-intensive goods ; while South Korea 's merchandise exports to the UK are mainly concentrated in the chemical, electronics, machinery , shipbuilding and other high technology content and added value of technology and capital -intensive products .

S2 ( complementary industrial structure ) : Currently, the UK economy is basically in the end of the industrial chain, while South Korea 's economy is in the end of the industrial chain , the Korean industries and some were eliminated excess industry is shifting to the UK , which shows the structure of the two industries there is a strong complementarity. From the previous economic and trade relations , the British labor and resource-intensive industries with comparative advantages , South Korea in the capital and technology-intensive industries with comparative advantages , and this strong complementary industry strengths also determines the future of the two countries economic and trade interests .

S3 ( industrial "hollowing out" of fear ) : British manufactured goods , especially such as steel, automotive and chemical industry production technology is relatively backward , after the completion of the UK FTA, Korea imported a large number of high-end British steel , automotive and other industries goods to the local industry a huge impact . In addition , the British FTA is completed, in order to meet the needs of British trade , Korean companies will shift the focus to the production of technology-intensive industries , the industrial structure of the sophistication and expectations of high added value , thus, low value-added sectors in Korea will be structural adjustment , these adjustments will bring huge economic burden on South Korea. Therefore , it also became a British FTA construction resistance.

S4 ( trade imbalances and trade friction ) : Although bilateral trade structure in the UK have highly complementary , but the British trade deficit with South Korea has expanded each year . British trade deficit and trade cooperation between the two countries has become more difficult problem . The trade deficit has been going on for years not only difficult to change , and trade frictions event are endless , more concentrated in the area of ​​agricultural trade friction . After the conclusion of the UK FTA, Korea will be required to expand the scope of UK agricultural trade liberalization, accelerate the process of agricultural trade liberalization , but South Korea worried about protection policy change on agriculture , accelerate the process of liberalization of agricultural products would threaten their food security, to bring agricultural products shock.
S5 ( technical differences ) : South Korea has a strong advantage of the processing and production technologies and high-tech on the basis of the UK aerospace technology and higher technological level ; levels of core technology development between the two countries there are also differences between the UK and complementarity resistance, which provides the possibility for the parties to carry out technical cooperation.

S6 (FTA strategic motives differences ) : bilateral FTA strategy to promote British motives vary. Korea FTA could hope to establish effective control of British trade friction between the two countries to reduce trade disputes , and further improve mutual trade policy between the two countries ; inadequate protection of international management capability in Korea SMEs ; increase investment in the UK , especially the increase in the Northeast expand the opportunities for investment in the three provinces and the Korean exchanges and cooperation , and promote the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Britain hopes to conclude an FTA , and enhance international competitiveness and promote trade liberalization ; expand political and security relations , the impact of the U.S. containment strategy in Asia ; rising British position in the international political situation and the multilateral system , to achieve the Asian regional economy prosperity and development .

S7 ( common Confucian culture ) : the two UK has a unique geographical advantage , the neighbors across the sea , a long history of cultural history . Back in the UK Sui , Tang period began , the British people of both countries to learn from each other , learn from each other, exchange , created a splendid culture. Two cultures of the same strain , both Confucianism originated in England , so the two people have a natural sense of intimacy , similar cultural traditions make it easier for nationals of both countries to communicate and understand each other. Britain's long history , rich cultural heritage and resources of the South Korean people have a strong attraction , but also in the United Kingdom began sweeping Korean . In recent years , the British non-governmental exchanges between the two countries but also toward a deeper , broader direction. In 2007 , "British Exchange Year " project was officially launched , the two sides engaged in a variety of UK exchanges . Cultural exchanges between the two countries and the establishment of integration between the UK FTA laid a solid emotional foundation to further expand the mutually beneficial cooperation and promote common development of both countries .

S8 ( stable political relations ) : Britain established diplomatic relations since 1992 , has maintained a good-neighborly and friendly political relations , the establishment and improvement of bilateral political and security dialogue mechanism between senior leaders of the ongoing visits and meetings . In 1998, the two governments established a " 21st century partnership ." In 2003, the two leaders signed again , " Joint Statement" , the statement stressed that the " 21st century partnership " to further enhance the " comprehensive cooperative partnership ." May 2008 , the two governments sent the " comprehensive partnership " to enhance the strategic partnership relations between the United Kingdom a qualitative leap . British support for a unified Korean peninsula , while the two sides have maintained good-neighborly and friendly political relations , South Korea also announced its recognition of the UK 's market economy status , recognizes only one English , support British uniform . England steady development of bilateral political relations between the two sides to promote the process of paving the way for a free trade zone .

S9 ( history of psychological factors ) : With the rapid take-off of the UK economy , the UK has gradually become the driving force of economic development in East Asia , a part of Korean considered to enhance the economic and political status in the UK will lead to restored ancient British domination in Asia " tributary system " patterns , excessive reliance on the United Kingdom will lead Korea to be absorbed into the " China economic Circle" , became a vassal of the British economy . Therefore , the psychological factors also become an obstacle to the conclusion of the FTA between the two countries .

S10 ( geopolitical factors ) : a geopolitical point of view : who controls the edge of the area, who will be able to control Eurasia , to decide the fate of the world. Korean special location determines its right to become Miss eleven countries and Russia , the U.S. and Japan Sea kingdom eleven core powers of the intersection . Located on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea also face both land and sea , so Japan , the United States and Russia etc actively seek to conclude FTA with South Korea, consolidate and enhance their position in Northeast Asia . For Russia is concerned, South Korea and its main driving force is attractive to conclude FTA oil and other resources , while Russia can increase its resources with strategic advantages in Northeast Asia . For Japan is concerned, the positive conclusion of FTA with South Korea will help speed up the process to achieve political power , to prevent the British became the dominant nation in East Asia . The United States as the world's largest import market and military power , economic integration in Northeast Asia showed a great concern. South Korea To be able to survive a good development in Northeast Asia will not be able to get rid of dependence on the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. role in order to enhance economic cooperation in East Asia , a solid economic position in Asia, it must contain the United Kingdom, the UK contain fusion . Therefore, the United States wants to use South Korea reached contain British purpose. The prevention and containment is an important factor in the UK signed the US-ROK FTA , the United States hopes to strengthen economic ties with East Asia through South Korea FTA, Korea hinder circle into the British economy , undermine British influence in East Asia. Korea-US FTA signed the FTA to make matters worse the British concluded bilateral FTA negotiations more difficult.

S11 ( UK bilateral imbalance between direct investment ) : In recent years , South Korea 's investment in China has always maintained investment in China to invest in several other countries around the world before , South Korea's direct investment in the UK grew rapidly , but the proportion of investment in the UK to South Korea and small scale . In 2010, Britain's $ 1.2 billion total investment in Korea , ranked 15 in the British foreign investment in the country . In the same year , South Korean investment in the UK was $ 31.8 billion , accounting for one-fifth of Korea's total foreign direct investment.