英国dissertation:全球气候变化研究

　　在国内和国际上对全球变暖的原因和气候变化之间的关系有很多种不同的看法。在话题讨论中大家从多个不同的立场，围绕气候变化的几个关键原因作出辩论。在科学界以及有了比较一致的看法，那就是由于人类活动引起的温室气体排放导致了全球气温的增加。

　　Nationally and internationally there is a diverse range of opinions about the causes and consequences of global warming and its relationship to changes in the climate. There are several key perspectives or ‘ discourses’ surrounding climate change that emerge in this debate within the community. Amongst the scientific community there is strong consensus that global temperatures have increased and attributable to human induced emissions of greenhouse gases.

　　对于这些复杂的环境问题，大家围绕气候变化讨论了很多，其中对解决气候变化问题已经达成了部分共识，但是具体到不同的人，大家仍然持有自己的独特看法。

　　An example of these types of complex environmental issues where there is a various opinions and perspectives is the current range of debates or discourses around climate change. There are bodies of consensus around climate change its existence, causes and ways to address it in the future; each has its own discourse.

　　这种观点一直在政府中的气候变化委员会中占主导地位，这其中包括著名的科学家和参加过世界气候大会的学者，他们都认为解决气候问题需要进行人为的干预。

　　This viewpoint has been dominated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which includes eminent scientists from all over the world who have reached agreement that changes to the climate are the result of human intervention.

　　There is, however, conjecture amongst groups in the community concerning the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether such a warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations. In addition there is disagreement regarding the sensitivity of the climate, the outcome of additional warming and the long term consequences of increasing global warming. This short paper outlines the four contrasting discourses Denialists, Fatalists, Technologists and Strong Environmentalists. It begins by giving a background on the latest developments and introducing the concept of environmental discourses before discussing each discourse in the current climate change debate.

　　For some time scientists had been advocating changes to our high intensity carbon consumption lifestyles, however it was not until 2006 with the release of Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth and the Stern Report commissioned by the UK that the issues of the potential consequences of climate change were raised broadly within the general public. The Stern Report drew direct links between inaction to climate change and the economy claiming that ‘the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more (Stern 2007,p.vi). Amongst OECD countries Australia has the largest per capita emissions of greenhouse gases, largely due to our dependence on coal fired power station as the prime source of electricity generation for energy. This component is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Following the release of the Stern report there were several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and subsequently in Australia the Garnaut Climate Change Review, which all drew similar conclusions that climate change was largely due to anthropogenic intervention or caused by human actions. Some of the effects of human induced climate change include flash flooding, urban heat island, water and air pollution, loss of biodiversity and amenity. The costs to the economy of doing nothing are high and many business analysts suggest that the low carbon economy represents an opportunity for business. Recent reports by two separate studies that appeared in Nature highlight the impact humans are having on extreme weather events and suggest greenhouse gas emissions are linked to more frequent heavy rainfall (Mark & Osborne 2011).#p#分页标题#e#

　　Internationally, at the latest United Nations conference on climate change held in Durban in 2011, 194 countries agreed to the Durban Platform which includes the launch of a protocol or legal instrument that will apply to all members, a second commitment period for the existing Kyoto Protocol and the launch of the Green Climate Fund. The platform provides for a new comprehensive package with legal force to be agreed by 2015 and to be implemented by 2020. It also provides for a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol of between five and eight years, and the establishment of the Green Climate Fund to channel up to $US100 Billion a year in aid by 2020 to developing nations.

　　In November 2011, the first of 21 bills were passed in Federal Government signalling Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy. The administration for the Clean Energy Act 2011 commences on 2 April 2012, meaning that the Clean Energy Regulator can start operations to prepare for the introduction of the carbon price on 1 July 2012. Under this initiative, Australia is anticipated to cut 159 million tonnes a year of carbon pollution from our atmosphere by 2020. The legislation will take effect on July 1 2012, when polluting companies will pay $23 per tonne of carbon emissions and households will be compensated with tax cuts and benefit increases.

　　Against the backdrop of international agreements and national initiatives the next part of this paper introduces environmental discourses.

　　Among any group of people there is likely to be different opinions on the same subject as different people interpret issues and solutions in different ways. The current discussion and debate surrounding climate change its existence and ways to address it has multiple perspectives. These perspectives will shape and influence differing business responses. This paper aims to outline and discuss the different perspectives or competing discourses surrounding this subject. Before examining the prevailing viewpoints on climate change it is helpful to first define the term climate change.

　　Climate change is a statistical description of weather conditions and their variations including both averages and extremes.http://ukthesis.org/ygsslwdx/  Climate change is a change in the average pattern of weather over a long period of time. Greenhouse gases play an important role in determining climate and causing climate change .

　　Climate change has been framed as a scientific, economic, environmental, social and political issue to name a few. At its heart regardless of your viewpoint many would agree it is a wicked problem. Dryzek (1997) gives special attention to complex issues, predominantly environmental.