赖斯大学Rice University:基于ISM模型的影响中韩FTA缔结因素分析

I. Background

 

China and South Korea established diplomatic ties in 1992, bilateral trade and economic relations to the rapid development of bilateral cooperation in the field of trade increasingly widespread trade is growing rapidly. According to the Korea Customs Department statistics, in 1992 South Korea, Japan, America's trade volume was $ 6.4 billion, $ 31.1 billion, $ 36.4 billion; while to 2009 were $ 140.9 billion, $ 71.2 billion, $ 66.7 billion. In 2010, China and South Korea trade rose to $ 207.1 billion, an increase of 32%, a record high. Undoubtedly, China has become South Korea's largest trading partner, South Korea has become China's third largest trading partner. Despite the rapid development of bilateral economic and trade, but there are still hamper the further development of bilateral economic and trade relations constraints, these factors include both changes in the international environment, including two own basis in reality. In this context, the two countries put forward the idea of ​​the establishment of China-ROK FTA, but the current situation between the two countries, the establishment of China-ROK FTA, only there are some favorable factors, there are also some constraints.

1992年中韩建交以来，两国经贸关系得以迅猛发展，双方贸易合作的领域日益广泛，贸易额增长迅速。据韩国关税厅统计，1992年韩国对中、日、美的贸易额分别为64亿美元、311亿美元、364亿美元；而到了2009年依次为1409亿美元、712亿美元、667亿美元。2010年，中韩贸易额增长到2071亿美元，同比增长32%，创历史新高。

Since the 1980s, as the economic integration in the form of bilateral and multilateral FTA rapid development on a global scale, but because South Korea can fully enjoy the benefits of the multilateral free trade system, centerless involving FTA; same Chinese did not pay full attention to the role of FTA . The late 1990s, due FTA rapidly expanding on a global scale and economic highlights, WTO regime increasingly apparent limitations, including China and South Korea and other countries, come to realize the importance of an FTA.

上世纪80年代以来，作为经济一体化形式的双边及多边FTA在全球范围内迅速发展，但是由于韩国能够充分享受到多边自由贸易体制的好处，无心涉及FTA；同样中国也没有充分重视FTA的作用。90年代末期，由于FTA在全球范围内迅速扩大及其经济效益的凸显，WTO体制的局限性日益显现，包括中韩在内的各国逐渐认识到缔结FTA的重要性。

Since the new century, China-ROK FTA vision gradually been recognized. 2004 APEC meeting, Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on the feasibility of an FTA Korea reach consensus, marking the China-ROK FTA to accelerate the pace of the beginning of the formation. March 2005, China's State Council Development Research Center of Foreign Economic Policy Institute and South Korea signed the "China-ROK FTA feasibility study to establish memorandum", you start the "China-ROK FTA feasibility of joint research and policy proposals folk" agreement, which The study mainly involve South Korea trade and investment, economic cooperation with China and South Korea concluded FTA status of each industry, the impact and policy analysis.#p#分页标题#e#

新世纪以来，中韩FTA构想逐渐得到认同。2004年APEC会议期间，中国国家主席胡锦涛和韩国总统卢武铉就中韩缔结FTA的可行性达成共识，标志着加快组建中韩FTA步伐的开始。

March 2007, China-ROK FTA enters VLSI joint research stage, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and South Korean Foreign Minister launched the "China-ROK FTA VLSI joint feasibility study", mainly involving the establishment of China-ROK FTA coverage areas, trade investment liberalization and on both industry and macroeconomic impact. May 2008, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's state visit in China, with Chinese President Hu Jintao issued a "Joint Statement." The statement stressed "the two sides of the China-ROK FTA joint study VLSI appreciated, the two countries should continue to move in the direction of mutual benefit to actively promote the construction of China-ROK FTA." This shows the beginning of the study FTA between the two countries entered a new phase . May 2010, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao attended the meeting in South Korea, Japan and Korea FTA joint research study of the official kick-off meeting, we recommend ROK FTA negotiations began. Meanwhile, the two sides also signed a commercial department "Free Trade Agreement Memorandum of Understanding." July 2011, China and the ROK government to further agreement, announced during the China-ROK FTA negotiations began.

 

This paper analyzes the factors affecting China-ROK FTA, for us to factors that affect the overall state of China-ROK FTA has a comprehensive and clear understanding, you can find the main factors restricting China-ROK FTA. Through the use of systems analysis systems engineering approach between various factors, by explaining the structural modeling method to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the establishment adjacency matrix, reachability matrix form factors of hierarchical relationships, summarize the China-ROK FTA affect the underlying causes, shallow reasons, middle and superficial reasons reasons, to be able to improve the unfavorable factors of China-ROK FTA guidance.

 

 

 

Second, the impact of China-ROK FTA concluded factors ISM model

 

 

 

ISM (interpretative structural model) is an American scholar (J. Warfield) in 1973 as the analysis of complex structural problems of socio-economic systems and the development of a system analysis method. The method is characterized by mutual influence between system elements (including one-way or two-way causal relationship between size, exclusion, the correlation between slave or possessive relationship) identification of the decomposition of complex systems become clear hierarchy of multi-level ladder structure, so many elements of the complex hierarchical relationships, principled. ISM belongs to the conceptual model can be used to clear the image of the conceptual structure diagram showing the system of relations between the various elements, structural analysis is an effective method. In this case, the use of China-ROK FTA ISM structural relationship between influencing factors has good applicability and practical significance.#p#分页标题#e#

 

(A) Factors Korea FTA

 

Is easy to calculate, in reference to this article on the basis of extensive literature following indicators selected as the factors affecting establishment of China-ROK FTA ISM model. Constitute ROK FTA between the various subsystems are interconnected, including economic factors (sub 1), political factors (sub 2), cultural factors (sub 3) and other factors (sub 4). After analysis of these factors on the impact of China-ROK FTA is more significant, it can be said that the dominant factor affecting China-ROK FTA. Among them, the subsystem also includes a trade structure, industrial structure, technological differences; subsystem 2 FTA strategy also includes motivation, political relations, geopolitical and economic systems, etc.; subsystem 3 also includes Confucian culture, history and psychological aspects; son System 4 also includes concerns such as the industrial hollowing out. Is easy to calculate, in reference to this article on the basis of extensive literature following indicators selected as the factors affecting establishment of China-ROK FTA interpretative structural modeling.

 

S1 (complementary trade structure): South Korea established diplomatic ties, bilateral trade has been expanding, while also deepening trade structure. 20 In the 1990s, China's exports to South Korea are mostly agricultural products, minerals, raw materials, textiles, base metals such as low technological content and value-added resources and labor-intensive products; while South Korea's merchandise exports to China are mainly concentrated in the chemical, electronics, machinery, shipbuilding and other technical content and high value-added technology and capital-intensive products.

 

S2 (complementary industrial structure): At present, China's economic fundamentals in the industrial end of the chain, while the Korean economy in the industrial chain in the end, some of the excess Korean industries and industries to be eliminated is transferred to China, indicating that the two industrial structure there is a strong complementarity. From the previous trade relations, China in labor and resource-intensive industries have a comparative advantage, South Korea in the capital and technology-intensive industries have a comparative advantage, and this strong industrial advantages complementarity also determine the future of the two countries economic and trade interests.

 

S3 (the industrial "hollowing out" of fear): China's industrial products, especially steel, automotive and chemical industries such as production technology is relatively backward, after the completion of China-ROK FTA, Korea, China will import large quantities of high-end steel, automobiles, etc. industrial products, to a huge impact on the local industry. In addition, after the completion of China-ROK FTA, in order to meet China's trade demand, Korean companies will shift the focus to the production of technology-intensive industries, expect sophistication of industrial structure with a high added value, thus, low value-added sectors Korea will for structural adjustments, which will bring huge economic burden Korea. Therefore, it has also become the construction of China-ROK FTA resistance.#p#分页标题#e#

 

S4 (trade imbalances and trade friction): Although China and South Korea in the trade structure has a strong complementary, but South Korea's trade deficit with China has expanded each year. Trade deficit with China and South Korea economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has become more difficult problem. Not only lasted for many years the deficit has been difficult to change, and trade friction events are endless, more trade friction concentrated in the agricultural fields. After the conclusion of South Korea FTA, China will require Korea to expand the scope of liberalization of agricultural trade, accelerate the process of agricultural trade liberalization, but South Korea worry about changing protection policies on agriculture, accelerate agricultural liberalization would threaten their food security, to agricultural belt to shocks.

 

S5 (technical differences): South Korea with strong processing and production technology and high-tech superiority, and China in the underlying technology and aerospace higher technical level; ROK core technology development level differences also exist with complementary technical cooperation between the two sides which offers the possibility.

 

S6 (FTA strategic motivations difference): ROK FTA to promote the strategic motivations differ. South Korea hopes the establishment of China-ROK FTA can effectively control the trade friction between the two countries to reduce trade disputes, to further improve bilateral trade reciprocity policy; inadequate protection of internationally operating capability in Korea SMEs; increase investment in China, in particular, to increase Northeast investment to expand exchanges and cooperation with the DPRK opportunity to promote the unity of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia peace. China hopes to conclude an FTA, and enhance international competitiveness, and promote trade liberalization process; expand political and security relations, the impact of the U.S. strategy of containment in Asia; rising China in the international political situation and the status of the multilateral system, to achieve the Asian regional economy prosperity and development.

 

S7 (common Confucian culture): ROK has a unique geographical advantage, are close neighbors across the sea, a long history of cultural exchange. Back in China's Sui and Tang period began, the people of China and the ROK learn from each other, learn from each other, communicate, have created a splendid culture. Two cultures strain, have their origins in China, Confucianism, so two people have a natural sense of intimacy, cultural traditions similar to the nationals of both countries to communicate and understand each other more easily. China's long history, rich cultural heritage and resources of the Korean people have a strong attraction, but also in China began sweeping Korean. In recent years, non-governmental exchanges between China and Korea also toward deeper, broader direction. In 2007, the "China-ROK Exchange Year" project was officially launched, China and South Korea to carry out various forms of exchange activities. Cultural exchanges between the two countries and for the establishment of China-ROK FTA convergence laid a solid emotional foundation to further expand mutually beneficial cooperation and promote common development of the two countries.#p#分页标题#e#

 

S8 (stable political relations): China and South Korea established diplomatic relations in 1992, has always maintained a good-neighborly and friendly political relations, and constantly establish and improve the political and security dialogue mechanism between the two countries, bilateral high-level visits between the leaders of the ongoing and meetings. In 1998, the two governments established a "21st century partnership." In 2003, the two leaders signed again "Joint Declaration", the statement stressed that the "21st century partnership" to further enhance the "comprehensive cooperative partnership." May 2008, the two governments sent the "comprehensive cooperative partnership" to enhance the strategic partnership between China and South Korea to achieve a qualitative leap. China supports a unified Korean peninsula, with both the north and south sides have maintained good neighborly and friendly political relations, South Korea also announced its recognition of China's market economy status, recognizing only one China and support China's reunification. ROK steady development of bilateral political relations, the two sides to promote the process of paving the way for free trade.

 

S9 (history of psychological factors): With China's rapid economic take-off, China has gradually become the driving force of economic development in East Asia, some Koreans believe that China's economic and political status of the upgrade will lead to restored ancient Chinese domination of Asia "tributary system." model, over dependence on China will lead Korea to be absorbed into the "China Economic Circle", became a vassal of the Chinese economy. Therefore, this kind of psychological factors also become an FTA between the two barriers.

 

S10 (geopolitical): a geopolitical point of view: who controls the edge of the area, who will be able to control Eurasia, which determines the fate of the world. Korean Peninsula determines its special geographical position to become the country eleven Russian land power, sea power of sovereign states eleven US-Japan intersection of the core. Located on the Korean peninsula while South Korea faced both land and sea, so Japan, the United States and Russia and South Korea etc actively seeking to conclude FTA, consolidate and enhance their position in Northeast Asia. For Russia is concerned, South Korea and its main driver of an FTA is the attractiveness of oil and other resources, while Russia is also able to leverage resources in Northeast Asia to increase their strategic advantage. For Japan, in terms of an FTA with South Korea to actively help accelerate the process of political power to prevent China to become the leading nation in East Asia. The United States as the world's largest import market and military powers, regional economic integration in Northeast Asia showed a high degree of attention. Korea in Northeast Asia in order to survival and development can not be good to get rid of dependence on the United States. Meanwhile, the United States in order to enhance economic cooperation in East Asia in the role of a solid economic position in Asia must contain China, to contain China and South Korea integration. Therefore, the United States to contain China would like to use to achieve the purpose of Korea. And prevention and to contain China is South Korea signed an FTA is an important factor, the United States hopes to strengthen the US-South Korea FTA and East Asian economic and trade ties, hindering Korea into China economic circle and weaken China's influence in East Asia. The signing of the Korea-US FTA conclusion of the China-ROK FTA worse, bilateral FTA negotiations more difficult.#p#分页标题#e# http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_writing/sociology 

 

S11 (ROK bilateral direct investment relationship imbalance): In recent years, South Korea's investment in China has always maintained investments in other countries in the world's top investment in China, South Korea's direct investment in China grew rapidly, but the South Korean investment in China scale and small scale. 2010, China's total investment $ 1.2 billion South Korea, foreign investment in China ranked 15 countries. In the same year, South Korea's investment in China was $ 31.8 billion, accounting for Korea's total foreign direct investment in fifth.