旅游业对亚洲经济增长的影响

旅游业对亚洲经济增长的影响

1.1简介

旅游业是亚洲一些国家发展的关键产业之一。马来西亚，它本身就依赖于旅游业的发展。在亚洲，像马来西亚这样的国家从旅游业中获益颇多。亚洲各国旅游业的发展是不同的。如空气污染，洪水和地震这样的自然灾害，将对亚洲的旅游业带来影响。

 

1.2生态灾害与旅游业

在先前就有过针对自然灾害与旅游业之间的关系的研究。在2010年，巴基斯坦的危险性洪水影响了经济的增长。旅游者所做的旅行计划会被包括经济、技术、国际政治、社会文化、环境因素这些直接与自然灾害相关的因素所影响。（马西森与沃尔，1993年）。根据辛克莱与斯特布勒（1997），该系列产品和服务涵盖旅游包括自然资源，尤其是非价格特征和来自有吸引力的环境和污染的负面影响正效益。辛克莱与斯特布勒指出，旅行的感知成本由于自然灾害所增加已经影响到了旅游业。

 

坎波斯1999年的研究表明，热带气旋（自然灾害）与酒店的收入（旅游业）之间有着一定关联，同时Chang在1983年发现，飓风和其他自然灾害会降低旅游收入使直辖市的收入降低，虽然联邦政府增加了对该地区的援助。

 

1.3亚洲旅游业：亚洲一些国家旅游业的发展

旅游业在亚洲经济发展中的比较和作用可以通过对所选择的国家间的比较进行具体的讨论。包括在本研究名单之内的国家有马来西亚，新加坡，文莱，菲律宾，印度尼西亚，泰国，越南，老挝和柬埔寨。

 

 

旅游对亚洲经济增长的影响-Effect Of Tourism On Asian Economic Growth

1.1简介-1.1 Introduction

Tourism is one of key industry in the development of some countries in Asia. Malaysia, itself depend on tourism in its nation growth. In Asia, country like Malaysia has benefited a lot from the development of its tourism industry. The developments of tourism in Asia are differing amongst countries. Natural disaster such as air pollution, floods and earthquake will bring an effect on the tourism industry in Asia.

 

1.2生态灾害与旅游业-1.2 Environmental Disaster and Tourism

There has been previous research regarding to tourism which study the relationship between natural disaster and tourism. In the year of 2010, hazardous flooding in Pakistan has influence its economy growth. Decision-making by tourists on travel plan is influenced by economic, technological, international or political, sociocultural and environmental factors including those directly related to environmental and natural hazards ( Mathieson and Wall, 1993). According to Sinclair and Stabler (1997), the range of goods and services encompassing tourism include natural resources and especially the non-price feature and the positive benefits derived from attractive environment and the negative effect of pollution. Sinclair and Stabler noted that the perceived cost of travel increases by the realization of natural disaster has effect tourism at all.#p#分页标题#e#

 

The research by Campos, (1999) stated that there was relationship between tropical cyclone (natural disaster) and the income of hotels (tourism industry), meanwhile Chang (1983) found that hurricane and other natural disaster can decreases revenues to a municipality through reduce tourism revenues, although the increases assistant by Federal Government to the effect area.

 

1.3亚洲旅游业：亚洲一些国家旅游业的发展-1.3 Tourism in Asia: Development of Tourism in Some Countries in Asia

Comparison and effect of tourism in Asia on the development of economy can be discussed specifically by making comparison between the chosen countries. The countries included on the list of this study were Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Philippines, Indonesia,Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambondia.

 

1.3.1 Malaysia

The research by Mohd Hafiz Hanafiah and Mohd Fauzi Mohd Harun in June 2010 regarding to tourism in Malaysia show that tourism in Malaysia is the third largest industry after oil and automobiles. Malaysian economy will increase due to the increase in tourism sector. Number of tourists visits Malaysia is a major factor which influences the Malaysian economy alone. During Asian Financial Crisis 1997, number of tourists declined and reached a new record after the economic stalemate.

 

There was another research which shows how tourists influence the growth of tourism in some countries. According to Song and Witt (2000), they described tourist products as the amount of tourism demand that the consumers are willing to acquire during a specific period of time and under certain conditions which controlled by the explanatory factors used in the demand equation. Smeral (1988) and Syriopoulos and Sinclair (1993) empirically examined the relationships between the variables underlying the determinants of tourism demand. Lim (1997), Song and Witt (2000) and Song et al. (2003), used econometrics forecasting model to which forecasts changed as a result of changes in the variables that act as economic drivers of tourism. Loeb (1982), Nordstrom (1996), Uysal and Crompton (1982) have used the demand function approach to identify the quantitative relationships of tourism demand. Jorgensen (1996) and Muller (1999) have focus on the statistical properties of an important time series, namely on the international tourist demand.

 

1.3.2 Singapore

In Singapore the research analysis on tourism was done by Xianming Meng, Mahinda Siriwardana, Brian Dollery and Stuart Mounter in June 2010 on the impact of the World Financial crisis in 2008 by using CGE analysis. They found that tourism industry is one of the important sectors in Singapore that contribute to the increase in the country economy development. Singapore tourism was greatly effect during the World Financial Crisis in 2008. It shows on Singapore Tourism Board (2009), tourism declined 13.5% in the first half of 2009 compared with the first half of 2008.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Blake and Sinclair (2003) used a 98-sector CGE model of the US economy to estimate the impact of 911-event in the absence of any offsetting policy response which is when the fall in the tourism expenditures reduces GDP and it will worsen the government budget and under different policy responses. Blake et al. (2003) use CGE model to analyse the impact of Foot and Mouth decease (FMD) on tourism and the UK economy. From the model it can be consider that there is a fall on the real GDP, declining in exports, increase in BOP deficit and falls in government revenue.

 

1.3.3 Brunei

The research by Kwabena A. Anaman and Chee N. Looi in September 2000 was on Economic impact of haze-related air pollution on the tourism industry in Brunei Darussalam.They found that haze-related air pollution is a major problem why Brunei has a problem on increasing their number of visitors comes to their country. The causes of this problem in Brunei tourism is because of the pollution that happen and country losses about one million to the tourism industry.  The pollution and human health effects tourists to visit Brunei and this will decreased the benefits of Brunei economy.

 

1.3.4 Philippines

In Philippines, study by (October 2000) by P.L. Cadiz and H.P. Calumpong (2000) on the revenues gained from tourism show that Philippines has a potential to increase in the tourism industry especially in Apo Island. According to White and Dobias 1990, the overall cost and benefits of tourism development options showed from a particularly of who is incurring the cost and who is benefiting. They also agree that tourist will visits Philippines because of the beautiful beaches and marine parks. From study of White 1996, the entire island coral reef was declared a marine reserve and a small portion a fish sanctuary in 1986 and this boost the economy growth.

 

1.3.5 Indonesia

Local Economic Impacts of Dragon tourism in Indonesia (2000) by Matthew J. Walpole and Harold J. Goodwin (2000) in their study of Local Economic Impacts of Dragon tourism found that tourism in Indonesia is an important industry to increase Indonesia economy so they can compete with other country. The number of tourists visit Indonesia will be show from the environment of this country.

 

According to Goodwin, Kent, parker and Walpole 1997 and1998, many international tourism emerged rather than industrialize countries. Brohman 1996, believe that tourism industry are increasingly being promoted in rural areas as a means to combat the historic trends of dependency and inequality. From Boo 1992 perspective, ecotourism is increasingly held to embody both sustainable development ideals and conservation.

 

1.3.6 Thailand

The study by Aswin Sangpikul and Ardash Batra (2007) on perpective of Thai Youths regarding to ecotourim found that Thai youths had a general knowledge and experience on ecotourism industry. The study is to decide their knowledge and attitude towards ecotourism as well as to survey their travel experiences relating to ecotourism. From the statement of Walailak University, 1997, they believe that people are regarded as one of the key factors for the success of ecotourism development. The study shows that Thai youths still have a limited knowledge on ecotourism but they understood the meaning of ecotourism.  Thai youths also have a problem to know on how ecotourism can effect on Thailand tourism. Besides, youths on Thailand like to visit places that are maintained and preserved beauty and pureness.From the previous study of Tonekaew, 1998 and Kunarucks, 2000, two concerned parties have been identified to provide more knowledge and promote ecotourism among Thai youths, namely educational institutes and government agencies.#p#分页标题#e#

 

1.3.7 Vietnam

Professor Malcolm cooper (1998) makes a research about the roles of IT in the development of tourism. He found that IT playing important roles in developing a national tourism industry based on the sustainable development model.  Vietnam is located in both a tropical and a temperate zone. This is because it is a fastest way to inform others about the tourism industry in Vietnam. The study is to compare the information provided by current systems, and managing development while preserving the value of the cultural and physical environment. Besides, Vietnam contributes on the increase in the country’s GDP. Good environment quality leads country to have more tourists visiting Vietnam.

 

1.3.8 Laos

Steven Schipani (2006) study how tourism benefitted Upland Rubber Cultivation in Laos. In the study, he found that Laos tourism will reach a million of tourists arrive over a year. The study of Laos’s tourism estimated that visitors are interested in the country’s natural and cultural attractions.  The study of Laos industry is to examine the ecotourism as an alternative to Upland Rubber cultivation in the Nam Ha National protected Area, Luang Namtha. Ecotourism in Luang Namtha generate financial benefits for local people, providing small group for cultural exchange, minimising adverse cultural and environmental impacts and generating public funds for environmental and cultural protection. Ecotourism activities and rubber plantations can both be conducted independently.

 

1.3.9 Cambodia

Kathryn Conway (2008) whom make a research of ecotourism, poverty, and conservation in Prek Toal found that ecotourism revenues can be analyzed using poor subsistence fishing village on Cambodia’s Tonle sap lake, the conservation organization Osmose to finance poverty intervention programs and promote conservation in a threatened ecosystem. This study is to examine the local perceptions of tourism.

 

According to Valene Smith, she’s defines tourism as a temporary and voluntary travel to ‘a place away from home for the purpose of experiencing a change’. In Cambodia tourism, the level of general awareness of tourists’ activities is low in the community wide. Besides there is a limitation on the perceptions of any negative impacts associated with tourism.

 

1.4研究人员过去的方法与分析-1.4 Method and Analysis used by Researcher in The Past

Method and the way analysis which has been used by previous researcher are vital in this research and therefore it will bring great advantages in this research especially in chapter 3 which will be discussed later.

 

Mohd Hafiz Hanafiah and Mohd Fauzi Mohd Harun (June 2010) study on Malaysia tourism use Gravity model and economic data to analyse the tourism demand in Malaysia. Xianming Meng, Mahinda Siriwardana, Brian Dollery and Stuart Mounter ( June 2010) study on Singapore tourism use CGE models, data and parameters to estimate the negative effects of the 2008 world Finacial Crisis. Kwabena A. Anaman and Chee N. Looi (Septemver 2000) using OLS regression Model and Linear and log-linear on the visitor and tourist..P.L. Cadiz and H.P. Calumpong (October 2000) study on Philippines tourism used questionnaire to determine the number of tourists visiting Apo Island every month other than monitor the number of visitors diving and snorkelling outside and inside the marine sanctuary.#p#分页标题#e#

 

Meanwhile, Matthew J. Walpole and Harold J. Goodwin (2000) study on Indonesia tourism used macroeconomics techniques ,questionnaire and ANOVA test to examine the magnitude and distribution of tourism employment and revenue generation in communities in an Indonesian Park.Aswin Sangpikul and Ardash Batra (2007) study on Thailand tourism used questionnaire and ANOVA test to decide their knowledge and attitude towards ecotourism as well as to survey their travel experiences relating to ecotourism.. Professor Malcolm cooper (1998) study on Vietnam tourism, Steven Schipani (2006) study on Laos tourism use data management and forecasting method. Kathryn Conway (2008) study on Cambodia tourism used fieldwork timeline, translator / assistant, sampling, consent process, data collection and data management to examine the local perceptions of tourism.

 

1.5结论-1.5 Conclusion

As every of us knew tourism play a big role in the development of economy in some countries. Issue such as natural disaster certainly degrades the growth of tourism in the country and of course economy as well. In this research, the event of how the situation of tourism in some countries in Asia will be used in completing this research successfully. Besides, the method and analysis used by previous researcher will give a big help in this research as it will help the researcher in the formation of questionnaire and other relevant analysis. And this will include how tourist had a strong relationship in the development of tourism economy.