留学生金融学专业代笔参考：《浅析日本大地震后日元异常升值的现象 Analysis of the phenomenon o
Abstract: In 2011, the Japanese economy can be described as a difficult autumn, when the economic situation to get rid of the global financial crisis, started toward the positive direction of development on an unprecedented scale "3 11" East Japan earthquake and the resulting Fukushima's first nuclear power plant nuclear leakage "from heaven". Then, the plot Yun has been a long time throughout Europe and the U.S. debt crisis engulfed once again led to the "super-appreciation of the yen (U.S. $ against the Japanese yen exchange rate fell below $ 1 dollar to 80 yen), which gave Japan an economic earthquake as severe as least as much as 3 • 11 "East Japan earthquake impact.
Keywords: background information of the East Japan earthquake, the Japanese yen exchange rate, abnormal appreciation
Background information
Since Japan's catastrophic earthquake, the yen soared, as the traditional safe-haven currency, the dollar is way down. 16 New York trading the yen against the U.S. dollar closed at 80.11 than 1. On the 17th morning Tokyo foreign exchange market, the yen against the U.S. dollar exchange rate was about 76 to 1, to refresh the highest level of post-war record in April 1995.
Northeast Pacific Ocean, Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami and nuclear leakage accident caused heavy loss of lives and property, resulting in a lot of damage to infrastructure, shortage of electricity supply, supply chain disruptions and social panic spread, the Japanese economy suffered heavy losses. The Japanese stock market has given this a panic reaction. March 15, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell to the lowest point of 8228, compared to 10 434 points before the earthquake, a decrease of 21.1 percent, creating a new record of Japan's post-disaster stock market decline. Then, after the Bank of Japan injected a large amount of liquidity to the money market emergency, the confidence of the Japanese stock market recovery, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average stock index rebounded to around 9600 points. In sharp contrast with the violent decline of the Japanese stock market, the yen exchange rate has not only devalued, but out of a period of abnormal skyrocketing prices. March 16, the yen-dollar exchange rate once rose to 76.25:1 yen in the four trading days after the earthquake cumulative appreciation of 8.9%, the highest level of post-war history. Quantitative easing monetary policy and the joint action of the joint intervention of the Group of Seven (G7) in the new round of the Bank of Japan, the yen exchange rate correction, and has been hovering at 80 yen / dollar above the.#p#分页标题#e#
In accordance with the common sense of economics, if a country had such a large scale natural disaster, usually fell after its currency. East Japan earthquake, the Japanese yen exchange rate as described above, the sharp appreciation of the situation. However, for the earthquake-prone Japan, this phenomenon seems there is no novelty. For example, after the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake in January 17, 1995, the Japanese yen have also gone through a substantial appreciation. Academia a more popular view is that the Japanese government, insurance companies and residents need to redeem overseas assets to meet the funding requirements of the post-disaster reconstruction, coupled with investors because of the generally expected to overseas flow of capital to do large-scale multi-yen, resulting in the yen's sharp appreciation. However, according to official statistics in Japan, East Japan after the earthquake, the Japanese did not show large-scale foreign capital back into the phenomenon. So, what factors lead to the yen in such a short period of time so intense appreciation?
Reason
From a fundamental perspective, the economic losses after the earthquake in Japan, government debt worse, and arguably the formation of short pressure on the yen. However, the actual trend of the yen is just the opposite. Analysts believe that the soaring yen short-term, mainly because of the disaster relief and reconstruction, as well as insurance claims require a lot of money, many Japanese companies to sell overseas assets, the flow of capital led to significant increase in the demand for yen in the short term resulting in the exchange rate appreciation. In addition, each year by the end of March early April, the settlement period of the fiscal year in Japan, many Japanese multinationals are often at this time of repatriation of funds to the domestic capital back into the formation after the earthquake additive effect.
Logically speaking, the currency of a country is a barometer of the country's economic strength, but also a manifestation of "national values": a strong currency that you "national" value increased. However, sometimes this indicator would be "wrong medicine". The trend of the yen index is a good example: after the earthquake, the yen substantially stronger yen against the U.S. dollar has risen to the highest historical point: one U.S. dollar can only change yen to 79 units it!
In general, the above are talking about the monetary theory of the value of a country reflects on the medium to long term, affect the exchange rates in the short term trend, but the relationship between supply and demand and market players expected on this relationship. This time is.
A direct result of the earthquake, a lot of property and loss of life, such losses to a large extent, require insurance companies to bear liability. For the catastrophe, the insurance company can do is sell a lot of overseas assets (in U.S. dollar-dominated era, the decline in demand for dollars), including stock holdings, bonds, and replaced with yen (a substantial increase in demand for the yen) back to save his business in Japan. Is in 1995, resulting in a substantial increase in demand for short-term yen, the yen against the U.S. dollar increased significantly.
From the investors point of view, analysts believe that market psychology is critical against the Japanese yen late trend. Further development of Japan after the earthquake disaster, the direct effect on market psychology, investor psychology is the important one of the reasons of short-term push the yen. So if things get worse, do not rule out the yen continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar.
Affect
"Super appreciation of the yen again against Japan, the grim situation of export industries. Triggered a rush to buy yen, the wind in the people's future economic growth began to increase confidence, the U.S. debt limit and bond credit rating is reduced, resulting in the recent yen continued to surge, giving export-dependent Japanese economy a heavy blow. According to the Cabinet Office data estimates based on the current situation, the yen appreciated by 10%, Japan's exports will be reduced by 1.7%, gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 0.2%; if the overseas needs of the economy is reduced by 1 percent, Japan's exports will be reduced by 0.4%, GDP will drop 0.1 percent.#p#分页标题#e#
The Japanese government to take countermeasures
Situation against the yen soaring, the Japanese government shows strong commitment to intervene in currency markets to ensure economic recovery, August 4th, the Japanese government and central banks acting together to take the heavy selling of the yen in the foreign exchange market (for the history of the most trillion yen) to buy USD interventions in order to maintain the stability of the yen, and promote the hard-hit Japan's economy embarked on a recovery track. This is a joint intervention in currency markets of the Group of Seven (G7) in the East Japan earthquake, Japan for the first time to take a separate interventions.
Summary: a country's exchange rate changes are far-reaching impact on a country's economy. Maintaining monetary stability is an important condition of a country's economic development, a government to promote economic development, macroeconomic regulation and control an important contributing part. Combined with the current situation in Japan, the universal demand of the pressure of RMB appreciation in the international circumstances to maintain the stability of the renminbi has become an important issue that needs to be considered in our government today.
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