爱默里大学Emory University:美国的美元战略与中国的经济政策选择

U.S. dollar in the international monetary system's core, the dollar strategy is an important pillar of U.S. global strategy. Establish and maintain dollar hegemony over half a century of history. Towards the end of the Second World War, the United States embarked on a conscious path to dominate the world economy, the dollar began to occupy the center of the world monetary system location. For a long time, the United States formed a complex community action programs, including a variety of policy instruments and investment strategies to ensure the dollar's center. It is the U.S. dollar in the international monetary system's core, making the U.S. domestic debt default in the welfare losses caused to the American people, but also the U.S. Treasury holdings to other countries suffer. China, as the largest holder of U.S. debt, the debt crisis in the United States has been greatly shifted implicated.

美元处于国际货币体系的核心，美元战略是美国全球战略的重要支柱。美元霸权的确立和维持已有半个多世纪的历史。从第二次世界大战接近结束时起，美国就开始走上一条有意识主导世界经济的道路，美元也开始在世界货币体系中占据中心位置。长期以来，美国各界形成一套复杂的行动方案，包括多种政策工具和投资策略，来保证美元的中心地位。正是由于美元处于国际货币体系的核心，使得美国国内的债务违约在给美国民众带来福利损失的同时，也使持有美国国债的其他各国受到损失。中国作为美债最大的持有者，在美国转嫁债务危机中受到很大牵连。

First, the U.S. dollar to maintain center of action

一、美国保持美元中心地位的行动方案

For a long time, the United States, with its activities in the international political and economic core position, as well as long-established national credit, through Congress, political, financial, and industrial and other sectors of society, the formation of a complex set of action programs, including a variety of policy instruments and investment strategy to ensure that the center of dollars and other currencies to the dollar's status challenges brought great difficulties.

(A) the basis of the dummy value of the dollar

Today's international monetary system is built on the basis of the globalization of credit based monetary system, the reserve currency issuing countries undertake to provide financial liquidity to global responsibility. In this system the core currency issuing countries, the U.S. dominance.

长期以来，美国凭借其在国际政治经济活动中的核心地位，以及长期以来建立的国家信用，通过国会、政界、金融和实业等社会各界，形成一套复杂的行动方案，包括多种政策工具和投资策略，来保证美元的中心地位，并给其他货币挑战美元地位带来很大的困难。

U.S. dollar-based virtual home is a fundamental prerequisite dollar strategy. As long as no restrictions linked to the object, while international trade has been the main use of U.S. dollars, in theory, the dollar had continued issuance and output may be, the United States will be free to control the money supply through the actual monetary and exchange rate adjustment, through output inflation pressure other economies and monetary systems, and even through a lot of additional dollars may be used to repay a huge debt. As the United States suffer from Standard & Poor's rating downgrade, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said this: the U.S. can always print money, so the probability of debt default is "zero", and stressed that the U.S. debt is still safe investment. And if the quantitative easing monetary policy to become the norm in the United States, China and other countries or economies will continue to bear the high international commodity prices caused by imported inflation pressures, external liquidity shocks, as well as increasing the risk of shrinking foreign reserves .

After World War II, the United States single-handedly built the Bretton Woods system, as the basis for running the global financial and monetary framework, control of the dominance of the international financial and monetary system in the world for monetary dumping. 1960s and 1970s, the United States has demonstrated revolutionized the determination of the international monetary system, the Bretton Woods system systematically ousted. July 1971 to fulfill the Nixon administration announced a freeze on foreign governments or central banks available to the U.S. dollar gold convertibility obligation means that the dollar link to gold, other reserve currencies against the U.S. dollar since the implementation of "joint float", abandon the fixed exchange rate between the U.S. dollar system , the final disintegration of the Bretton Woods system. After the United States to promote the establishment of a global system of central banks, monetary authorities to make interest rate, exchange rate policy lost its independence deprived of some other countries the monetary and financial sovereignty.

Bretton Woods system to Jamaica from the United States greatly increased the strategic mobility, its international status and policy autonomy unprecedented strengthened. Decoupling of the dollar and gold, the value of the dollar foundation to become a key issue ambiguous. In fact, the dollar is not a fixed currency basis, which makes the U.S. currency supply has become more arbitrary, the Fed may need to choose according to the situation of a large number of issuance of U.S. dollar, and then across the globe sharing the resulting inflationary effect. Decoupled from the dollar and gold since the exchange rate between the dollar and gold has fallen to the original 1/8 or so, you can reflects currency dollar has been declining in real terms. However, as long as the U.S. dollar newly issued growing deficit mainly going abroad, the United States will not have to bear the major cost of loose monetary policy, which can reap benefits.

(Two) through dollar deficit and win back the wealth

1982-2010 years, the United States only in 1991 to achieve a trace surplus (about 2.9 billion U.S. dollars), the rest of the year are kept U.S. international trade deficit in 2006 is to reach a high of $ 800.6 billion, exchanged for any other country impossible to maintain such a deficit duration and scale. U.S. continue to do so for a long time to maintain such a huge deficit prerequisites: First, the country's foreign trade surplus in dollar-denominated and settled. In order to hedge the U.S. dollar gained, surplus countries almost exclusively limited areas in the United States to invest, so that this part of the U.S. dollar and back to the United States. Second, the United States through a variety of financial products, and continuously borrowing from the international community, the idea of ​​"debt economy" to maintain its ability to buy and consume. Among them, the U.S. Treasury for its country's reputation is based, has been considered a high hedge against inflation, thus becoming the country earned dollars "ideal" dollars go. Third, the Fed's quantitative easing policy of the United States produce large amounts of low-cost dollars.http://ukthesis.org/jr

Huge deficit with the United States for a long time to maintain the results of trade, the United States bought both goods and services, which enjoys the world's wealth, increase people's welfare, and return of capital, resulting in the continued prosperity of the U.S. economy and finance, but also to ensure the value of the dollar. Other countries to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, the more difficult to extricate themselves, the U.S. dollar bond market liquidity is higher, the United States also able to trade for their own deficit financing. In addition, long-term trade deficit, making the U.S. dollar currency issue is almost unlimited. Printed in the USA a $ 1 bill of materials and labor costs only $ 0.03, but it can buy $ 1 worth of goods. Thus, the United States billions of dollars a year can get huge seigniorage. However, the U.S. trade deficit also makes itself faced with the pressure of the trade deficit. One important factor is that the trade deficit will affect the development of domestic industries and employment rate. Therefore, the United States needs to control the size of the trade deficit, the dollar and the benefit of seigniorage space basic agreement. However, because the United States to maintain a long-term overdraft of economic development patterns and lifestyles, government operations have been vicious cycle of debt-strapped economy, facing the trade deficit, the most direct solution is to devalue the dollar. 2010 U.S. exports $ 1.3 trillion, while the depreciation of the dollar began in 2002, exports of only $ 697 billion. Analysts believe that the increase of 1/4 to 1/3 can be attributed to the dollar. By adjusting the value of the dollar, the United States to a certain extent, control the size of the trade deficit, with the dollar in the international monetary system dominance, while net benefit obtained stably.

(Four) through political and economic means to suppress other currencies

Historically, the dollar in order to ensure that the core of the world economic and financial position, when the U.S. dollar faces or may face found in other currencies compete, it will seek to combat its direct or potential competitors, and tried to prevent other regional monetary cooperation and integration process. U.S. economic pressure on its competitors means of exerting political diversity, including: leading the formation of the IMF and other international financial behavior rules of the game, especially for "currency manipulation" is defined, forcing other countries to currency appreciation; foster foreign political agents and experts in the economics profession, advocating its claims of rationality, and so on. Thus, the side of the transfer of its domestic economic contradictions, one side against its competitors.

1950s and 1960s, the United States and Europe weighed on the implementation of the use of a combination of policy, France and other European countries were dissatisfied. De Gaulle had strongly condemned the U.S. dollar is not just international medium of exchange, but only for the U.S. service credit instruments; U.S. dollar as an international currency, the U.S. balance of payments deficit and the long-term need not be adjusted. 20 In the 1960s, France and the United States were spent between security, political, economic and diplomatic resources to conduct monetary confrontation. French attempts to weaken the dollar's status and U.S. hegemony, and the U.S. without any substantive compromises that will keep the dollar hegemony as America's highest national interests.#p#分页标题#e#

1980s forced appreciation of the yen dollar, the U.S. currency through political and economic pressure to force the appreciation of a typical action. 1960s and 1970s, Japan-US trade imbalance appears large, the formation of large trade surplus in Japan, the U.S. dollar began to get invested in U.S. assets. The challenge for Japan, the United States in 1985 joint British, French, German, forced the Japanese government signed the "Plaza Agreement", the U.S. dollar against the yen depreciated by over 40%, as long as 20 years after the recession in the Japanese economy and the adjustment of the important factors world. The resulting sudden sharp devaluation of the dollar, then the U.S. release of a huge domestic economic pressures. 20 In the 1990s, an unprecedented economic boom in Southeast Asia on the occasion, the U.S. financial predators in Thai Baht as a breakthrough, a heavy blow to Thailand and other Southeast Asian country's currency.

The birth of the euro in 1999, provides an alternative to the settlement currency of choice dollar, weakening the dollar in international trade settlement currency status, the impact of the dollar's reserve currency hegemony. On the one hand, the main export commodities in the euro area and the United States competitive varieties, the euro settlement volume will inevitably lead to the rise of a decline in the amount of U.S. dollars, U.S. dollar relative decline in the proportion of the amount that the United States in the international market pricing power loss. On the other hand, after the birth of the euro, which accounted for the proportion of total global foreign exchange reserves continue to rise; while the U.S. dollar continued to decline, from the end of 2001 to 71.5 per cent by the end of 2010 to 62.1%. The International Monetary strong pattern is clearly showing two America's unwillingness to see. Therefore, the United States to use dollar "hedge Properties" and stage a strong, regularly or irregularly to manufacture and use of the euro zone debt crisis, the European debt manufacture unrest turns against the euro, the euro take the absolute initiative.

United States through political, diplomatic and trade instruments, according to their requirements and standards Forced yuan appreciation, in order to reduce their own idea of ​​economic pressure has not changed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said: China currency values ​​"any measure have been undervalued"; "more robust global economy would need in order to suppress China's trade surplus and other exporting countries and the United States and other importing countries to reduce trade deficit." This statement by the view, the United States the idea is to always place the interests of their own heart, and then the world's economic interests and its economic stability linked by such a bundling strategy to maintain the interests of U.S. strategic position, reflecting naked economic hegemony thinking. In fact, in 2008 after the financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate strongly driven by the domestic export industry, the world's economic recovery has an important help; Some analysts have long pointed out that China's economy to lead the world out of the economic crisis, the role of the World a great need to continue this trend ...... therefore, to suppress the RMB exchange rate is not only a blow to China, but also to some extent at the expense of the world economy at the expense of the general interest.#p#分页标题#e#

(Five) through monetary and financial means to suppress other countries' economic

After 20 years of development, the United States has become the world's leading financial derivative products supplying countries, making it the world's most state institutions and individual investors, financial investment an integral part of the menu. Through financial derivatives and other financial means to suppress other currencies are generally not through government activities, but with its dominant market rules and financial concept, by the American capitalists and financial elites to proceed against his country's currency and financial system and profit. Which, with the help of credit leverage a variety of financial derivatives has become an essential tool.

In 1985 the United States on the Japanese economy oppression taken action to appreciation of the yen, the U.S. launched against Japan's Nikkei stock index put options and the Nikkei Index Put Warrants on the Nikkei bring a strong short selling pressure on the Japanese impose a heavy economic blow. Japan's rapid economic bubble burst, can no longer pose a threat to U.S. hegemony. 1997 Asian financial crisis, caused the collapse of Thai baht and other Southeast Asian country's currency is the stock index futures, while short selling currency, stock index and sell stocks as a small economy hard to resist a combination of boxing, and the government increased dramatically overnight bank lending rate and people to absorb the stock market behavior, by external overwhelming accusations that a violation of free market principles. In addition, financial predators who attack other countries, monetary system, they can see a similar credit leverage figure. 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. financial derivatives devaluation, so that international investors huge losses. Many countries have injected a large amount to the domestic market liquidity, in order to prevent the domestic financial industry has been too much impact. In the global money market freeze, States banks and financial institutions have to buy dollars on the open market, in response to the liquidity crisis, the United States took the opportunity to issue more dollars.

Credit leverage and derivatives reason why you can play a huge role, the fundamental reason is: First, the US-led Western countries led economic discourse and the "free market", "market economy" is defined, remove most other countries important means of defense systems. Second, the foreign exchange regime under the Jamaica system with the inevitable flaws, as long as the amount of money the international speculators reaches a certain size, you can use a loop to get the huge economic interests. Its revolving mechanism is: pushing through the influx of hot money freely exchange rate target country, depression and promote their exports increase the amount of money invested to improve their stock and property markets and the prices of necessities, thereby increasing the surface short-term gains; further attract hot money, constantly bigger economic bubble; preliminary short means, at the appropriate time the bubble burst and the economy would benefit significantly, and then absorb the target countries at low cost assets acquired double profits. Financial leverage played in this short mechanism to strengthen the role of the capital of international speculators can quickly zoom into and a small country with the economic strength of the ability to compete, with the strong dollar capital reached at empty one country's currency purposes.#p#分页标题#e#

(Six) through multiple means of digesting foreign dollar reserves

U.S. dollar foreign exchange holder for efficient investment in the United States is very limited scope. The most profitable high-tech and energy, the most stable growth, with a strategic position for the U.S. financial industry has always dominated American financiers who derive significant return on investment, foreign investors are almost impossible to get involved, and can only be purchased relatively return Low assets, U.S. Treasury bonds and other financial derivatives. In such investment options, foreign investors or face lower return on assets, and effective return of inflation and the dollar could be quickly offset by the impact of issuance, thus no actual gain; either a higher degree of risk, especially financial derivatives and various concepts of economic, may at any time make investors lose everything; Even the U.S. Treasury, is also facing the risk of technical default. Current U.S. foreign dollar holders massive dollar reserves to digest a typical channel is the U.S. Treasury bonds. On body mass and liquidity, the market lacks alternative options for U.S. Treasuries. In one into one between the foreign holders of dollars to the U.S. economy may impact was reduced a lot, set to go beyond the dollar is also very limited.

Not only that, the U.S. dollar long-term depreciation trend, considerably weaken the actual share of dollar assets abroad, thus greatly reducing the pressure on foreign dollar reserves. As introduced in other countries are also often the dollar peg policy, to prevent the appreciation of their currencies to suppress passive exports, the U.S. dollar and other currencies and it did not show significant decline. But in a liter of a drop between the U.S. dollar and can obtain huge profits through unilateral advantage. Appreciation and depreciation of the United States, respectively, using the period of unilateral advantage, buying the assets of a free market countries profit. U.S. dollar and the exchange rate between currencies of other countries, there was not only a period of appreciation, but also devalued stage. Appreciation of the dollar, the United States purchased large surplus country currencies; while surplus countries tend to buy U.S. assets, the dollar, the target value of the assets decline in the country, which gives dollar purchase of these assets opportunity. However, in turn, because surplus countries lack economic power, coupled with U.S. investment restrictions and financial review of the threshold, these countries can not turn on the United States to take appropriate measures, the United States to continue with its economic strength, profitability, thereby maintaining its other currencies advantages of the system.