利兹大学University of Leeds:后金融危机时期转轨国家经济发展态势分析

Since 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis ravaged the world, hit the global economy, leading to a severe recession. The international financial crisis on the impact of transition countries is more serious, Russia and Central and Eastern European countries since the second half of 2008 began to fall into a deep recession, a number of countries in transition and even a currency crisis occur simultaneously, the stock market crisis, the debt crisis, the real economy crisis, economic growth crisis and political crisis. Faced with these crises and resulting financial turmoil and economic downturn, income decline, rising unemployment and other conditions, transition countries have to implement economic stimulus plan, and take various measures to support the real economy, and maintain financial sector stability, stimulate consumption and investment demand, increasing unemployment relief to alleviate the crisis, the adverse impact on society. Some countries also won the international financial institutions and organizations for financial assistance. These initiatives for countries in transition to get rid of the impact of the international financial crisis, especially after the financial crisis to restore economic growth, played a crucial role .

自2008年以来，由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机肆虐全球，重创全球经济，导致严重的经济衰退。国际金融危机对转轨国家造成的影响更为严重，俄罗斯和中东欧国家自2008年下半年开始陷入深度衰退，一些转轨国家甚至同时出现了货币危机、股市危机、债务危机、实体经济危机、经济增长危机以及政治危机。面对这些危机及其所导致的金融动荡、经济下滑、居民收入下降、失业率上升等状况，转轨国家纷纷实施经济刺激计划，采取多种措施扶持实体经济，维持金融业稳定，刺激消费和投资需求，增加对失业人口的救助以减轻危机对社会造成的不良影响。一些国家还获得了国际金融机构和组织的经济援助。这些举措对转轨国家摆脱国际金融危机的影响，尤其是后金融危机时期恢复经济增长，发挥了至关重要的作用.

One, gradually out of the shadow of the crisis of the country's economic transition

一、逐步走出危机阴影的转轨国家经济 

Gradual recovery in the international financial markets, the global economy is gradually emerging from crisis, coupled with the country's economic stimulus plan transition work, the vast majority of countries in transition economies to varying degrees of recovery growth, and some transition countries to restore economic growth even faster.

国际金融危机爆发以来，中国坚持实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，全面实施应对国际金融危机的一揽子计划和经济刺激方案。而且，中国的经济刺激方案是转轨国家中规模最大的，对于2009年经济的恢复发挥了关键性的作用。 #p#分页标题#e#

(A) faster to get rid of the international financial crisis, China's economy

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China adheres to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the full implementation of the international financial crisis and the economic stimulus package plan programs. Moreover, China's economic stimulus package is the largest country in transition, for the recovery of the economy in 2009 has played a key role. Table 1 reflects the Chinese government invested 4 trillion yuan (accounting for 12% of total GDP) for the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures.

Since four trillion yuan huge investment driven, and other related measures, so that China took the lead in the world to achieve the overall economic recovery to the good. This trend mainly reflected in the following five aspects: First, the downward trend in economic growth can be quickly reversed. Chinese 2009 economic growth rate was 8.7% (economic growth of 6.2% from the first quarter, the way the line from 7.9% in the quarter, 9.1% in the third quarter, 10.7% in the fourth quarter). Second, the main price index bottoming out. 2009 CPI continuous decline in nine months later, in November turned up, in December rose 1.9%; PPI after 12 consecutive months of decline, in December rose 1.7% in the first turn. Three is a clear trend of economic stabilization and recovery. 2009, the annual social investment in fixed assets 22.5 trillion yuan, a real increase of 35.2%, the annual cumulative total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 16.9 percent real. Fourth, exports recover quickly. December 2009, foreign trade export growth from negative

Growth to rapid growth in export volumes to return to pre-financial crisis, the highest level of 96%. Five is the situation in the financial sector significantly to the good. Main features: macro-financial environment is stable loose money supply grew rapidly. End of December 2009, broad money supply (M2) amounted to 60.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.6%. Meanwhile, the financial institutions of RMB loans and deposits rapid growth, the end of December were up 31.74 percent and 28.21 percent. Country's foreign exchange reserves reached 23,992 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.29% [1].

(Two) slow recovery of the Russian economy

Russia is affected by the international financial crisis, the most serious impact of the transition countries. Since the second half of 2008 by the severe impact of the international financial crisis, after nine years of growth in the Russian economy into a deep recession, but also by the financial market turmoil turned into a financial crisis. Russia's economic and financial system withstood a severe test. Table 2 reflects the economic situation in Russia, 2008-2009.

 

The face of the serious impact of the international financial crisis and the resulting deep recession, Russia has adopted a number of bailouts and economic stimulus measures: First, inject the banking system in order to maintain the stability of the banking system, and to ensure that the financial system and the domestic currency stability. The second is to support the real economy, especially for large companies (including some SMEs) to take major support measures. Third, a number of important sectors of the economy to take special protective measures, depending on the industry to take a targeted assistance program. Four is to maintain social stability and people's livelihood, strengthen national social security, pension substantial increase in the level of residents, reduce unemployment and increase employment, and thus fulfill the Government's commitment to social welfare for all. According to IMF data, Russia's stimulus package in 2009 and 2010, the proportion of GDP reached 4.1% and 1.3%. Table 3 shows that the Russian anti-crisis measures in the relevant circumstances.#p#分页标题#e#

Implementation of these measures in the Russian economy in the second half of 2009 there have been signs of recovery: First, the 2009 ruble devaluation after the first rise, the annual devaluation phenomenon does not appear, thus avoiding significant losses. According to the Russian Central Bank data, from January to December 2009, the real effective ruble exchange rate fell by 3.8% [2]. Second, Russia's banking sector to maintain the overall stability, some experts predict no "second wave of crisis." Russian government and central bank interventions enhance depositor confidence in the banking sector, resident deposits in 2009 increased by 27%, increased the stability of the banking sector. Third, the real economy in the first half of 2009 despite a severe decline, but in the second half because the growth in government spending to promote the domestic demand has picked up, so that output gradually restored. Seen from Table 2, Russia 2009 GDP fell by 7.9%, slightly lower than expected. 2009 fourth-quarter GDP fell by only 3.2 percent, better than expected economic recovery. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted figures show that the Russian economy in the third quarter of 2009 began a weak recovery in the fourth quarter to accelerate the trend. Fourth, the financial position of the Russian Federation should be better than expected. 2009, as oil export revenue growth, budget deficit of 5.9% of GDP, accounting for no more than GDP 7% of the cordon [3]. After entering 2010, a further improvement in the economic situation in Russia. 2010 first quarter, GDP grew by 2.9%, reversing the 2009 fourth quarter, the downward trend of -3.8%. According to the Russian Federal Statistics As of April 2010 data, Russia's economic situation continues to improve, unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in March to 8.2% in April, for the four months since the minimum; retail trade sales grew by 4.2% to achieve four consecutive months of growth; real wages rose by 6% in October 2008, the largest increase since the residents real disposable income grew by 3.7%; ruble-dollar exchange rate for the fourth consecutive month appreciation; April industrial Following the March production index increased by 5.7% after a 10.4% rise again; fixed capital investment rose 2.3%, also in October 2008, the largest increase since [4].

(Three) the economy bottoming out in Eastern Europe

 

By the profound impact of the international financial crisis, countries in transition economies in Eastern Europe fell sharply in 2009, Table 4 shows the number of the country's economic growth.

 

Other data show that the second quarter of 2009, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Serbia and Ukraine, and other countries have been converted to positive growth in industrial output. Poland is relatively strong domestic demand, but also to maintain a positive GDP growth. Figure 1 reflects China and Russia and other countries of the industrial output growth.

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On the one hand, to improve the international demand, coupled with currency devaluation, to a certain extent, enhance the competitiveness of their products, and promote the Eastern European transition countries export. From mid-2008 to mid-2009, during the international financial crisis, foreign trade contributed to Poland's GDP growth of 3.2%, growth of 0.5% in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, up 1.6% Hungary 7.3% (but its domestic demand fell by 10.5%) [5] . Especially in the fourth quarter of 2009, the global economic recovery contributed to a number of Eastern European countries in transition export growth.

Figure 2 transition country exports growth

 

Source: UniCredit.CEE Quarterly, 2010Q2.

 

On the other hand, despite the severe impact of the international financial crisis, but Russia and Eastern European countries the banking system does not appear systemic bankruptcy, there is no general loss of depositor confidence. Nevertheless, due to the economic recovery is slow, loan delinquencies rise, banks have to cut lending to the private sector in order to repair their balance sheets, thus affecting consumption and investment demand, can not effectively promote economic growth. Figure 3 shows the transition state bank loans to the private sector (Figure 3)

 

In summary, after the international financial crisis in transition economies have been able to gradually get rid of the serious impact of the crisis appears to the good economic situation, mainly due to the transition countries decisively implemented economic stimulus and bailouts, in particular measures to vigorously to support the real economy and stabilize the financial sector, do everything possible to stimulate consumption and investment demand, increasing unemployment and vulnerable groups bailout. Practice shows that the transition countries, the practical effect of these policies and measures are more obvious.

Second, the post-crisis transition countries, the basic trend of economic development

Since the international financial crisis, because the world is widely taken to stimulate the economy and other interventions, not only the national economy but also the global economy has resumed growth, particularly in Asia, strong economic growth and U.S. consumer demand recovery of the global

Source: UniCredit, CEE Quarterly 2010Q2.

A role in promoting economic growth. In view of this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2010 global economic growth expectations. In the updated "World Economic Outlook" report and the "Global Financial Stability" report, IMF global economic growth in 2010 expected from the previous 4.2% to 4.6%. The World Bank also believes that the global economy is showing signs of steady recovery. According to the World Bank's latest economic forecast released ,2010-2011 global GDP growth will be between 2.9% -3.3%. However, global financial markets remain fragile and the European sovereign debt crisis and the possible escalation and increased market uncertainty, not only will drag on economic growth in the euro zone, will drag the global economy back leg, delaying the process of global economic recovery . The World Bank pointed out that if any of a sovereign debt crisis in European countries, the debt default or market confidence crisis situation worse, and trade and credit contraction will inevitably severely depleted curb global GDP growth and, thus, can not be excluded in some countries fall into two degree recession may [6]. Post-crisis transition countries economic growth and development is faced with the global economic situation is getting better, but increased uncertainty and variables such a development.#p#分页标题#e#

(A) recent basic situation of China's economic development

International Monetary Fund (IMF) on China's response to the international financial crisis and post-crisis initiatives in the global economic recovery, China's important role to be fully affirmed. IMF 2010 年 7 27 release reported that the Chinese government during the financial crisis to take "swift, decisive and effective" policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis on China's economy, and to ensure that China leading the global economic recovery. The report concluded that, in fiscal policy, the Chinese government has stepped up infrastructure construction, pension, health care, education and other spending efforts to reduce the tax rate. In monetary policy, China's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, the abolition of the restrictions on credit growth, prompting the bank credit increased significantly. Under the action of multiple policies, the Chinese economy since the second quarter of 2009 began to accelerate recovery, and is expected to continue to maintain strong growth momentum in the future. Meanwhile, the Chinese economic recovery of the region and the global economy will have a "significant and positive" spillover effect [7]. IMF forecasts, as the leader of China's economic growth in 2010 is expected to reach 10.5%, thanks to a strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand. 2011 growth is expected to be 9.6%. In addition to IMF, the World Bank predicts that in 2010 China's GDP grew by 9.5%, an increase of 8.7% in 2011, will continue to maintain steady growth [8]. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also on China's economic development and its prospects for the forecast that in 2010 China's economy will continue to grow strongly in the role of a package of economic stimulus plan, the projected GDP growth of 11% in 2011 years, despite the slowdown will reach 9.7%. Deteriorating terms of trade and domestic demand remains strong, in 2010 the current account surplus may continue to decline, accounting for 2.75% of GDP, and then rose to 3.4% in 2011 [9].

Whether the IMF or the World Bank and the OECD, its economic development in the post-crisis period, China's positive comments and forecast is based on the financial crisis, the Chinese government adopted effective policies and measures to stimulate the economy and the post-crisis period was driven economic stimulus plan strong economic recovery. Chinese government to the 2010's 4 trillion yuan investment (12% of total GDP), not only greatly promoted China's economic growth, but also led to the world, especially in East Asia's economic growth. From the next period, the 4 trillion yuan investment effect will be further demonstrated, coupled with the Chinese government's new economic development policy objectives and have taken a number of other important measures, the next few years China's economic development will have a positive impact . A basic conclusion: the future of China's economy will not only continue to show a good trend, but will gradually enter the expansion and rapid development.#p#分页标题#e#

1 China can vary according to the economic development of the situation and make timely economic policies and development goals effectively adjust

In the international financial crisis when, in December 2008 8-10 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, clearly stated that "to maintain growth, expand domestic demand, adjusting structure, promoting reform and benefit people's livelihood," the major initiatives and policy objectives . Among them, to maintain growth as the top priority of economic work in 2009. Around this center, the state has promulgated a series of policies to stimulate the economy, such as the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy; launch of expanding domestic demand, "State 10", arranged four trillion yuan investment; repeatedly cut interest rates, and deploy financial "national nine"; solutions to SME difficulties, and so on. At that time the expansion of domestic demand to maintain growth as a fundamental way; will accelerate the transformation of development mode and structural adjustment as the main direction of capital growth. Therefore, "growth" is a masterstroke, "expanding domestic demand, readjusting the structure" is to achieve "growth" objectives important means and guarantee.

2009 "growth" objectives achieved and (GDP grew by 8.7%), especially in the post-crisis era of economic development in 2010 with the mission and development goals into focus. 5-7 December 2009 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, in 2010 the general requirements for economic work are: to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, according to the the new situation and new efforts to improve the policy relevance and flexibility, in particular, to pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, more emphasis on promoting economic development mode and economic restructuring, more emphasis on promoting reform and opening up and independent innovation, enhance economic growth vitality and power, more emphasis on improving people's livelihood, maintaining social harmony and stability, greater emphasis on co-ordinate domestic and international situations, efforts to achieve stable and rapid economic development. 2010 To expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand increased focus on enhancing consumer stimulating effect on economic growth, while "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" is the central economic work conference, one of the main tasks. June 5, 2010, Finance Minister Xie spoke at the G20 meeting also reiterated that China in 2010 will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and in accordance with domestic and international economic situation, a good grasp of the intensity and focus of policy , efforts to expand domestic demand, adjust and optimize the structure, accelerate the transformation of economic development, and promote stable and rapid economic development [10]. Therefore, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, is 2010 and for a period of China's economic development policy objectives focus. Based on this, IMF, World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts were optimistic about China's economy in 2010 will grow by 10.5%, 9.5% and 11%, in 2011 it will grow by 9.6%, 8.7% and 9.7%. At the same time, some economists worry that China will be even overheating of the economy, Yixianrong that in Troika pull, do not worry about China's economy in 2010 will not be completed in early control of the government work report to set goals, but do not worry about the second half of 2010, the downside risks to economic growth, should be worried about economic growth in 2010 is not too high and more than 12% of economic overheating [11].#p#分页标题#e#

(2) investment and export dual-pull effect on the economy  http://ukthesis.org/jr

National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2009, GDP growth stimulating "Troika", the final consumption's contribution to economic growth rate of 52.5 percent, driving GDP growth by 4.6 percentage points; investment's contribution to economic growth rate of 92.3 percent, driving GDP growth of 8 percent; foreign demand that "net exports" contribution to economic growth was negative 44.8 percent, down 3.9 percentage points from GDP growth negatively. Or even negative growth in exports is a double-digit decline, this is the first time in recent decades. The 2010 investment and exports will pull effect on the economy. From an investment perspective, China is committed to stimulate the market demand, especially investment demand. By the end of 2009 Central Economic Work Conference stressed in 2010 to maintain appropriate growth of investment. Especially in May 2010, the central government to the "new 36" form once again actively encourage private capital investment in most industries in the economy, especially in infrastructure and some monopoly industries. Some people think that this could become the next 5-10 years, China's economic development and reform is an important driving force. From the export perspective, in 2010 the GDP contribution of exports to China will not only from negative to positive, and the contribution of increased exports in 2010 China will become the major driving force of economic growth. Sharp rebound in exports in 2009 will also be investment-led economic growth to investment and economic growth driven by exports.