英国dissertation：第一太平戴维斯公司的评估及相关论述

The valuation of Savills
第一太平戴维斯的评估

Introduction
介绍

In this chapter will use the previous chapters’ information to make a forecast balance sheet to Savills Company. Then use DDM, DCF and EVA model to calculate the anticipated share price.
在这一章中，将做出预测第一太平戴维斯公司的资产负债表。然后使用DDM，DCF和EVA模型计算预期股价。

In the left side of 2009, data are from annual report of Savills 2009, sales and ROE are anticipated by previous information from historical data.
In the anticipation of market recovery, this report assumed after year 2009 Savills will have 10% increase rate of sales.
Because Equity Pct Total Capital is 95.36% (see chapter 5.10), so this report used ROE for making forecasting. From the past years data, ROE shows a stable figure around 8% despite of changes in conditions (average number in the past 20 years).56 (see appendix)

Calculation of cost of equity
权益成本的计算

This report is using capital asst pricing model (CAPM) to calculate the required return of equity (re).
Required return of equity=risk free rate + β*risk premium
This formula developed by Jack Treynor, William Sharpe, John Lintner and Jan Mossin.

Determination of risk free rate (rf)
无风险利率（RF）的测定
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In this report, the risk free rate (rf) is used to calculate required return of equity and WACC, which are used as discount factors for infinity time period. Since Savills is a UK company, so this report choose UK Treasury Bill rate as risk free rate which is selected as 0.5%
在这份报告中，无风险利率（RF）的股权，加权平均资本成本作为折现因子为无穷大的时间段来计算所需的回报。由于第一太平戴维斯是一家英国公司，因此本报告选择英国国库券息率作为无风险利率为0.5％。

Determination of market return rate (rm)
市场收益率的测定

Rm represents a market risk, in this report, using FT100 index which can reflect a fair UK market return

Determination of risk premium
风险溢价的测定

Risk premium defined as expected rate of return above the risk free rate.58 Formula is: Risk premium=rm - rf
In this report, risk premium used by average annual risk premium within 25 years, which is 7.53% from 1985 to 2009(see appendix).

Determination of β
β is the coefficient covariance of Savills return rate (re) and market return rate (rm). In this part, β is selected as 0.66 which is from 14 August 2010.59#p#分页标题#e#

Result of required return of equity (re)
After the calculation which used the formula re=rf + β*risk premium
Re equals 5.4%
Determination of cost of debt
The cost of debt figure is from the annual report of Savills the calculation method used the weighted average cost of debt, and the final result is 4.26%

Determination of tax rate
The tax rate 28% is selected from annual report of Savills 2009; this is a consolidated tax from international business.
Determination of weighted rate of debt and equity
The weighted rate used the market value of equity and debt.
Market value of equity =share number * share price
131791925*314.10GBp60=413958436GBP
The market value of debt is complex to chase, so in this report, only used the book value of debt £253.5m instead.
So the weight rate of debt and equity is 38%, 62% respectively.
Result of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 4.5%