经济学Essay模板：Macroeconomic Analysis of Linda’s Bakery Ltd

本文是经济学专业的Essay代写模板范例，题目是“Macroeconomic Analysis of Linda’s Bakery Ltd（林达烘焙有限公司宏观经济分析）”，1959年，利昂内尔•秦法特先生创立了琳达烘焙店，他看到了人们对优质烘焙食品的需求，同时又能负担得起价格。他们目前在特立尼达有12家分店，并计划在2017年之前再增加10家。如今，他们的产品线包括面包、咸味糕点、甜点、蛋糕等烘焙产品，以及“琳达的新鲜”系列产品，包括沙拉、三明治、卷饼、三明治、百吉饼和椰子烤饼。

Introduction介绍

Linda’s was established in 1959 by Mr. Lionel Chin Fatt who saw the need for quality baked goods at an affordable price. They currently have 12 locations in Trinidad with plans to add 10 more by 2017. Their product line today includes bakery items such as bread, savoury pastries, sweet treats, cakes and their “Linda’s Fresh” line consisting of salads, sandwiches, wraps, subs, bagels and coconut bakes.

Macroeconomic Analysis

GDP

The Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) economy is predicted to continue sustainable growth (1.8-2.1%) over the short to medium term (see Figure 1.1), but less than in 2014 (2.3%). This will be driven by robust growth in the non-energy sector (2.0-2.5%) (IMF 2014).

The main risk to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the energy sector – which contributes 40% of national GDP – will be a sustained decline in energy prices. At the current price of $45 for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI), we anticipate a further downward revision of 2015 projected growth in the sector.

We are of the opinion that both Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and WTI will remain at or around current prices, at least for 2015. This is in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast for LNG but not for WTI (see Figure 1.2); however we agree that crude oil prices will not go into further decline given current circumstances.

Interest Rates利率

The Repo Rate was increased to 3.25% for three main reasons, to keep in line with expected increases in U.S. interest rates, the headline inflation rate – driven mainly by double digit food inflation, and continued steady performance in non-energy output (Kissoon 2014). We expect as the U.S. rates increase, so will the Repo Rate.

回购利率上调至3.25%有三个主要原因，一是与美国利率预期上调保持一致，二是总体通胀率——主要由两位数的食品通胀推动，三是非能源产出的持续稳定表现(Kissoon 2014)。我们预计，随着美国利率的上升，回购利率也会上升。

The Federal Reserve is basing changes in its rate on economic performance however current indicators show mixed results. We expect that the rate of increase for both rates will be slower than originally anticipated.

Unemployment Rate失业率

With an unemployment rate of 3.5%, there is extremely limited excess capacity in the labour market. Linda’s has a staff turnover of 8% monthly in stores. This may be attributed to government make work programmes. Reforms that will help diversify the economic base and reduce the fiscal deficit will be difficult to implement, especially in an election year. As such we do not anticipate significant changes to the makeup of the labour force in the short to medium term.

在3.5%的失业率下，劳动力市场的过剩产能极其有限。琳达商店的员工流动率为每月8%。这可能是由于政府制定了工作计划。将有助于经济基础多元化和减少财政赤字的改革将很难实施，尤其是在选举年。因此，我们预计短期至中期劳动力的构成不会有重大变化。

Wheat

The major ingredient in Linda’s products is flour. Although the flour is produced locally, wheat is imported mainly from the USA; the world’s largest wheat exporter. Wheat exports from the USA are at its lowest over the past three years and are expected to decrease because of reduced demand and a surging dollar.

In the short term prices are predicted to move lower then recover in 2016, depending on demand for wheat as feed and a recovery in corn prices (Wilson and Mulvany 2015). When coupled with increased production worldwide, we anticipate continuing fluctuations in the price of wheat in the short term but not to the extent of 2010-2011 which triggered the last local price increase.

Consumer Confidence消费者信心

In Quarter 3 of 2014 Central Bank conducted its first Consumer Confidence survey measuring at -4. This can be an indicator that consumers will spend less and save more as they are mildly pessimistic about the economy. If consumers spend less, suppliers may decrease their production output which can affect national productivity and wages. (News.gov.tt, 2015)

在2014年第三季度，中央银行进行了其首次消费者信心调查，测量值为-4。这可能是一个指标，表明消费者将减少消费，增加储蓄，因为他们对经济持温和悲观态度。如果消费者减少消费，供应商可能会减少他们的生产产出，从而影响国家的生产力和工资。(News.gov.tt, 2015)

Porter’s Five Forces

Supplier Power – Flour

Linda’s purchases its flour exclusively from the National Flour Mills (NFM); a state controlled Public Limited Company, and is their second largest customer.

NFM recently adopted a more proactive relationship with its major stakeholders, including Linda’s and the Seamen & Waterfront Workers Trade Union (SWWTU), such as including them in its strategic planning. This bore positive results like a collective bargaining agreement for wages in place for 2013 to 2016 (Trinidad Express 2015).

We would expect this proactive mindset to continue with the importation of wheat, if US wheat becomes too expensive. NFM can easily import wheat from Canada and Uruguay, two politically stable countries that NFM previously or currently imports other grains from.

We don’t expect the fluctuations in the world wheat price to affect the price of NFM flour locally, as it is set by the government – NFM’s majority shareholder. Historically government is averse to increasing the price of flour, regardless of who is in power. This can be seen in flour – and bread – maintaining Value Added Tax (VAT) exempt status, the discounts offered on flour by the current administration, and other price fluctuations being absorbed except in 2011.

Buyer Power

Linda’s recently increased the prices on some products and, according to their CEO, this has had no effect on their sales. Linda’s believes that once they have a quality product, their customers will pay the price for it. As such we are of the opinion that buyer power is not a major factor at this point in time.

Competitive Rivalry竞争激烈的竞争

Linda’s is second in the bread market to Kiss Company Limited and they state that they are number one in the pastry business in the country. Whilst Kiss sells the same product – bread – we are of the opinion that they have different target markets. Kiss is available from groceries to sidewalk shops throughout the country, whereas Linda’s products are only available in their stores. Linda’s products have little or no preservatives and they believe that this is to their advantage since some customers will choose their products over for this reason.

在面包市场上，琳达是仅次于Kiss公司的第二家公司，他们声称自己是全国最大的糕点公司。虽然Kiss销售同样的产品-面包-我们认为他们有不同的目标市场。Kiss在全国各地从杂货店到路边商店都能买到，而琳达的产品只在他们的商店里有售。Linda的产品几乎没有防腐剂，他们认为这是他们的优势，因为一些客户会因为这个原因而选择他们的产品。

Threat of Substitution – Gluten Free

“The number of consumers who think gluten-free is generally healthier fell from 46% in 2010 to 35% in 2012, and the number who thinks it is effective in managing weight fell from 30% to 27%.” (IFT 2014) Based on the premium in product costs, we do not foresee gluten-free entering the mainstream in T&T.

Threat of New Entry

There are some significant barriers to entry for this type of business:

Capital Requirements: The CEO of Linda’s stated that the minimum investment required to enter this business is approximately $50 to $70 million. Two of their major investors are Prestige Holdings and Trent Restaurant Group.

Economies of Scale: In order to produce bread and pastries for multiple geographic locations, capacity must be significant and utilization maximized. Linda’s expanded its factory in El Socorro, where they prepare all the products to be distributed to all locations.

Product Differentiation: Linda’s has recently rolled out their “Fresh” line which is an attempt at differentiating their product line from other bakeries.

Sector of the Economy

Linda’s is catergorised under the food and beverage manufacturing sector of the local economy. According to the Food and Beverage Industry Development Company, “with the continued expansion of the local economy, the domestic food and beverage sector is expected to continue along its progressive track. In addition, expansion of the regional economy, renewed efforts for research and further product development, and strategic niche marketing will also support sustained growth over the longer term.” (FoodAndBeverageTT.com 2015)

Competition竞争

Trinidad and Tobago has a free market economy with Linda’s Bakery operating in as an oligopoly. The bread market is dominated by the leader Kiss Baking Company followed by Linda’s Bakery. There are other competitors but they are small in comparison. In order to compete at the same level as Linda’s you would need to have at least $50-$70 million TTD in startup costs.

特立尼达和多巴哥实行自由市场经济，琳达面包店是寡头垄断经营。面包市场由Kiss烘焙公司主导，其次是Linda 's Bakery。中国还有其他竞争对手，但相比之下规模较小。为了与琳达的竞争水平相同，你至少需要5000万到7000万美元的TTD启动成本。

Their products however are differentiated. They are price makers utilizing product differentiation by offering a wider range of high quality products some of which may not found in other bakeries. They have also added a new line called “Linda’s Fresh” to accommodate changing customer demands and to stay one step away from the competitor.

Customer Analysis

Analysis of Demand and Supply

There is limited statistical data on demand and supply within the industry. Therefore we made assumptions using the theoretical concepts and behavioural changes in wheat imports and consumer purchasing.

Wheat imports steadily declined from 2011 to 2014 from 140 to 135. It is projected at 135,000 MT in 2014/2015MY in the Trade report and current USDA World Markets (USDA 2015). The wheat import forecast fell by -2 (1.45%) thd. mt in the 2014/2015 in comparison to 2013/2014 season. The opening stock for 2014/2015 was 5 thd. mt (indexmundi.com 2015).

Using this trend we can assume that the consumption of flour based products (such as bread) has decreased over the years. We can assume that this may be due to lifestyle changes considering “There is an explosion of diabetes in Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean and it is now the second leading cause of death in T&T.” (Baboolal 2015) With a prevalence rate of 14.2% and an undiagnosed rate of 37.6%, it is possible that 1 out of 2 adults (20-79) in T&T are diabetic (IDF 2015). We anticipate a surge of diabetic related issues over the medium to long term. According to the World Health Organization the life expectancy for Trinbagonians has increased from an average of 70.85 to 72.5 years. This can lead to suppliers producing less.

Price Elasticity

Linda’s Bakery product is price inelastic. Their bread prices are lower when compared to Kiss Bakery; however Kiss is the market leader. Bread is considered to be a necessary commodity used in everyday life and is highly consumed in Trinidad. If there is an increase in price, then ceteris parabus, the quantity demanded will not decrease. The percentage of income spent is relatively low; there is a wide availability of substitutes, a high degree of necessity and no switching costs.

Complementary and Substitute Products补充和替代产品

On a very basic level Linda’s complemented their goods with drinks for sale, a common practice for most food outlets. For example the sale of a sandwich or Linda’s fresh might increase the demand for drinks. However with a substitute the buyer might buy something other than the intended good in store but if the substitute is outside the business then the company will not maximise profit.

在一个非常基本的层面上，琳达用饮料来补充他们的商品，这是大多数食品店的普遍做法。例如，三明治或Linda 's fresh的销售可能会增加饮料的需求。然而，有了替代品，买家可能会购买商店中预期的商品以外的东西，但如果替代品在企业之外，那么公司将无法实现利润最大化。

Externalities (Positive and Negative)

Positive externality in consumption is Linda’s Bakery training their staff resulting in an increase of human capital. They are therefore able to educate other people who benefit from them. Positive externality in production is the tax break in manufacturing that will encourage entrepreneurship to lead to diversification, employment and economic growth.

Free markets allow the negative externality in consumption is the increase rate of diabetes and obesity in Trinidad and Tobago.

Conclusion结论

There are major opportunities and challenges for Linda’s within the current economic environment. Linda’s Bakery has plans for expansion nationally and potentially regionally. Based on the expense to expand production capacity, Linda’s must continue on its current expansion path to effectively utilize this increase in production capacity.

在当前的经济环境中，Linda’s面临着重大的机遇和挑战。琳达的面包房计划在全国和地区范围内扩张。基于扩大生产能力的费用，林达必须继续其目前的扩张路径，以有效利用这一增加的生产能力。

They can accomplish this expansion by utilizing their current resources and revenue to accomplish the task. As such they currently do not need to go for financing and are not affected by the increase in interest rate. This is another reason why we recommend Linda’s continue on its current expansion path.

They can gain a competitive advantage through the application of technology. For example the introduction of an app can boost the company’s visibility and brand awareness, generate sales and capture customer data to make projections.

However, a major challenge for the company is the limited supply of labour in the country. Even though persons can seek employment at Linda’s with limited experience, there exist easier options through government programmes. The application of technology above may also mitigate some of the burdens of in store staff by shifting the effort needed to the customer.

然而，该公司面临的一个主要挑战是中国的劳动力供应有限。尽管经验有限的人可以在Linda 's找工作，但通过政府项目也有更容易的选择。上述技术的应用还可以将所需的工作转移给客户，从而减轻店内员工的一些负担。

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