经济学Essay代写模板：Solow Model of Economic Growth
本文是工商管理专业的留学生Essay范例，题目是“Solow Model of Economic Growth（索洛经济增长模式）”，在XX世纪80年代中期，人们对经济增长问题以及决定经济增长过程的因素的兴趣开始复兴，尤其是对人力资本的兴趣。研究导致对迄今取得的成就进行批判性分析，并开始研究新的增长理论，根据这些理论，广泛理解的技术进步是相互依存的，科学技术知识和人力资本的积累主要是消费者和生产者以及实施特定长期经济政策的国家有意投资决策的结果。
In the middle of 80s of XX centuries, the renaissance of interest in the issues of economic growth and the factors determining the course of the growth process happened, especially human capital. Research led to a critical analysis of the achievements to date and initiated work on new growth theories on the basis of which the broadly understood technical progress is interdependent, accumulation of scientific and technical knowledge and human capital is primarily the result of intentional investment decisions of consumers and producers as well as countries that implement a specific long-term economic policy.
The Solow growth model is also known as the Solow-Swan model. It is a simple macroeconomic exogenous growth model that uses the production function which makes the production volume dependent on the amount of production factors used, such as labour, capital and the state of technology. This model is set within the framework of neoclassical economic school. The Solow model is showing how savings, population growth and technological advances affect the rate of economic growth. According to the assumptions of the Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, the increasing amount of capital that goes to a single employee causes a smaller and smaller increase in the portion of production allocated to him. The function of that model is represented by: y=A∙f(k)
Where:
y represents production volume per employed employee
A represents constant value which means the increase in labour productivity caused by changes in technology.
k represents Tangible capital per individual employee
Solow in his model extended the Harrod-Domar model by labour as a factor of production. This model is describing mathematically the phenomenon of economic growth. We can define this as increasing form period to period of basic economic quantities such as production, income, consumption and accumulation.
索洛在他的模型中扩展了哈罗德-多玛模型，将劳动作为一种生产要素。这个模型从数学上描述了经济增长的现象。我们可以将其定义为生产、收入、消费和积累等基本经济数量在不同时期之间不断增加。
Economic growth occurs when the range of services provided increases and the production of agriculture and industry decreases. Growth is related to the dynamics of each of the components of the economy and even implies the possibility of regression of certain parts of it, then production heading in different directions, having different dynamics, eventually leads to a positive effect of these changes. The concept of economic growth includes, on the one hand, quantitative relationships in the process of increasing effects, inputs and efficiency of the economy, and on the other, the mechanism of economic growth like for example social relationships that keep the entire system in motion. Thus, growth processes consists of the functional structure and the system of social interests as well as the institutional structure of the economy. In analyzes of economic growth, we focus on changes in production over time.
Therefore, it is important to define measures of production growth and the periods for which these measures are calculated. A commonly used measure of economic growth is the production growth rate, also known as the production growth rate. There are four main criteria for classifying economic growth models: Time, Theoretical basis, The number of variables in the model and Principles of model construction.
Time criteria时间标准
Long-term models - are used to define the path of sustainable growth, therefore they assume that the market provokes forces leading to the use of production capacity. They also serve as a model for the development of the economy and focus mainly on changes in the resources of the labour force, capital and technology. They are showing how model can look like in future and how we can improve our outcome in near future.
长期模型——用于定义可持续增长的路径，因此它们假定市场引发了导致使用生产能力的力量。它们还可以作为经济发展的模式，主要集中在劳动力、资本和技术资源的变化上。他们展示了模型在未来的样子，以及我们如何在不久的将来改善我们的结果。
Short-run models - they relate to Keynesian economics and focus on finding the reasons by which actual production is brought to its potential level. They are perfect to define today’s problem and giving solution to fix possible errors.
Theoretical basics
Classic models are characterized by: full use of production capacity, flexible prices and wages, which balances supply and demand, natural unemployment level and balance in the labour market, unnecessary role of the state in adjustment processes, ineffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy thanks to flexible prices.
Keynesian models - in contrast to the classical model, the given lacks price and wage elasticity, therefore the balance in a given case is achieved by means of quantitative adjustments.
Number of variables in the model
One-factor models - one factor is tested in them (for example: work or capital), then the other components of economic processes are not important. That model provides information about how one factor is influence model (how important or how insignificant it is) and how we can improve this factor without other factors in count.
Two-factor models - include the study of two factors. How combination of those factors could impact our model.
Multivariate models - it is possible to study two or more factors. Taking into account more components, it is required to extract more equations.
Principles of model construction
Mathematical models - are based on deterministic dependencies and are clearly defined. They are characterized as abstract constructions and not in line with reality. We can’t fully base our decision about next steps based on that model.
Econometric models. It is model representative of reality and using that model we can make some decisions.
Over the past 50 years, life expectancy at birth has increased by an average of around 10 years in across the EU, notably through improving socio-economic and environmental conditions, and improving the quality of healthcare and treatment. In today’s world we can observe three main revolutions: economic and technological revolution, socio-democratic revolution and geopolitical revolution.
在过去50年里，整个欧盟的出生预期寿命平均提高了10年左右，主要是通过改善社会经济和环境条件，以及提高医疗保健和治疗质量。在当今世界，我们可以看到三大革命:经济和技术革命、社会民主革命和地缘政治革命。
Those revolutions impact today’s society and influenced our growth in future. Economic and technological revolution through convergence digital, biological and industrial technologies and making digital tools accessible and affordable to the masses of society everywhere fundamentally change the way of virtually based economies and societies. The new "knowledge society" offers great opportunities in terms of productivity and average welfare growth, and empowerment of the individual. However, it can also cause serious disruptions to the social situation: we are already seeing an increase in unemployment in low-maintenance jobs qualifications and consisting in performing repetitive tasks, an increase in inequality within societies, and relative impoverishment middle class in developed countries, including Europe.
In other hand socio-democratic revolution is using better connection of individuals whose position is empowered, for being more creative, more dynamic, less tied to one workplace, but at the same time more demanding and critical. This revolution is allowing a thorough renovation of the social contract and the development of a new form of governance. However, it makes it difficult developing collective agreements and shaping a joint one approaches using traditional political party structures or trade unions. Reluctance towards those in power may deepen with increasing popularity less traditional local initiatives. In any case, the desire to guarantee is getting stronger accountability and transparency at all levels of management.
另一方面，社会民主革命正在利用那些被赋予权力的个人的更好的联系，使他们更有创造力，更有活力，更少地与一个工作场所联系在一起，但同时也更加苛求和挑剔。这场革命是对社会契约的彻底革新和一种新的治理形式的发展。然而，它使发展集体协议和利用传统政党结构或工会形成一个联合的方法变得困难。对当权者的不情愿可能会随着越来越多的民众越来越不传统的地方举措而加深。无论如何，在各级管理中，保障的愿望越来越强，责任制和透明度也越来越高。
In opinion of political analysts, a geopolitical revolution will most likely continue high levels of economic growth in Asia, and approx two-hundred-year domination of Europe and the United States of the world is coming to an end. With the advent of new ones the powers of Latin America and possibly the world of Africa will become more multipolar. Globalization will no longer driven and dominated by Western powers in favour of more democracy, more open markets and peaceful international cooperation. This swap paradigm can make key factors such as The United States and China can be more and more focused on confrontation. Post-war cooperation framework as a result of this may be placed under increasing pressure, which will threaten the collective ability to effectively manage ever increasing interdependence. Destructive non-state actors, including those whose activities fuelled by religious extremism, they can increasingly make greater use of existing vulnerabilities in the system. At the same time, the international community is struggling to sustain or rebuild the growing number of the weak and fallen countries.
When considering the topic of population growth, we need to deal with the subject of an aging society. Experts predict that by 2100 the global median age of the population will increase to 42 years, in Europe it is now 43.1. Today, the median in the world is 31 years old, in 1950 it was 24. It is predicted that, starting in 2073, there will be more people 65+ in the world than children under the age of 15. Increased life expectancy and a low birth rate will contribute to the increase in the median age of the population. As a result of the aging of the world population and the associated systematically declining fertility rate, which is expected to drop to 1.9 births per woman in 2100 (compared to 2.5 today), the growth of the world's population will be below 0.1 percent - which is means a slowdown in population growth on a global scale. Then the population is expected to reach 10.9 billion.
当考虑到人口增长的话题时，我们需要处理一个老龄化社会的话题。专家预测，到2100年，全球人口的中位年龄将增加到42岁，欧洲现在是43.1岁。今天，世界平均年龄是31岁，1950年是24岁。据预测，从2073年开始，世界上65岁以上的人口将超过15岁以下的儿童。预期寿命的延长和低出生率将有助于人口中位年龄的增加。由于世界人口的老龄化和相关系统的生育率下降,预计在2100年下降到1.9每个妇女生育(今天2.5)相比,世界人口的增长将低于0.1%——这意味着在全球范围内的人口增长放缓。届时人口预计将达到109亿。
By 2100, Africa is the only region in the world where the population will continue to grow significantly and significantly, according to forecasts. According to UN calculations, the population of this continent, from 1.3 billion today, will probably reach the level of 4.3 billion at the end of the century (Europe today - 743 million; in 2100 - 630 million). Projections show that this growth will be driven mainly by the growing population of Sub-Saharan Africa, which could even triple its population by the end of the century. Nigeria is set to surpass the United States in population by 2047. Figures also show that by 2100 half of the babies born in the world will be born in Africa - most in Nigeria.
The stability of the international situation in the 21st century will depend to a greater extent on how the global population will be distributed and what its structure will be, than on how many people will live in the world. Attention should be paid in to the regions of the world where the population is declining and where it is growing; which societies are aging, where the median age is the lowest, where the fertility rates are positive and highest. A closer look at the global demography - from the distribution of the world's population, through the living conditions of societies and the quality of public services in these countries, to the state of the natural environment and climate change as a consequence of global warming - allows us to predict, among other things, potential migratory flows between regions. Immigration - depending on the activity of governments and the accuracy of adopted policies - can be both a positive response to "disappearing" Western societies and a source of growing social and political problems that will contribute to increasing international tensions. Since many of the consequences of global demographic growth have a transnational dimension, they will also be felt in countries with negative growth. Such countries will in particular suffer from the effects of the deteriorating condition of the natural environment, increasing anthropogenic pressure on natural resources and food demand.
The opportunities offered by the growth of the world's population include growing global demand, expanding markets and the migration potential, which in the future may be helpful in coping with the consequences of an aging society. The relationship between the climate crisis and the growing population is two-way road for population. On the one hand, the growth of the world's population exerts a very strong pressure on the climate through the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, on the other hand - the ongoing climatic changes make the conditions for life, including human life, less and less favourable. Unless the climate crisis is resolved, it will threaten the lives of millions, and in the long run, billions of people. The consequences of climate change that we can predict and are already taking place include, but are not limited to, extreme weather events, heat waves and massive wildfires, land desertification and species extinctions. Over time, they will make less and less land suitable for living and farming. There may be problems with access to food and drinking water. Rising ocean levels will lead to the flooding of many islands and coastal areas. An indirect, although expected, effect of climate change may be local and international armed conflicts fought over basic resources, such as food and water. In such a situation, killing as many civilians as possible will become not so much their unintended consequence as an end in itself.
世界人口增长所提供的机会包括全球需求的增长、市场的扩大和移民的潜力，这些在未来可能有助于应对老龄化社会的后果。气候危机和人口增长之间的关系是双向的。一方面，世界人口的增长通过温室气体排放的增加对气候产生了非常大的压力，另一方面，持续的气候变化使生命，包括人类生命的条件越来越不利。除非气候危机得到解决，否则它将威胁数百万人的生命，从长远来看，将威胁数十亿人的生命。我们可以预测并已经发生的气候变化的后果包括但不限于极端天气事件、热浪和大规模野火、土地沙漠化和物种灭绝。随着时间的推移，他们将使越来越少的土地适合生活和耕作。获得食物和饮用水可能会有问题。海平面上升将导致许多岛屿和沿海地区洪水泛滥。气候变化的一个间接影响，尽管是预期的，可能是当地和国际武装冲突，争夺基本资源，如食物和水。在这种情况下，杀死尽可能多的平民，与其说是意外的后果，不如说是其本身的目的。
Climate change is also one of the important factors leading to the gradual loss of biodiversity. More and more species of plants and animals, including pollinating insects, are becoming extinct and their place is being taken by alien invasive species. Due to the complexity of global ecosystems, the effects of these processes on humans are difficult to predict. Further pressure on agricultural crops can be expected related to the increasing aggressiveness of parasitic species and the decreasing population of pollinators. The prevalence of diseases vectors of mosquitoes, ticks and biting insects is also often mentioned (for example, malaria, Lyme disease, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever, Zika, etc.). Due to the decreasing number of natural enemies and the favourable global warming, these arthropods are becoming more and more widespread and dangerous. If climate change is not stopped and reversed within the next half-century, we may pass the point of no return where life on Earth in its present shape becomes impossible. When we think about a rapid demographic growth, it is worth remembering that as long as developing technology does not allow people to be completely independent of the planet's resources, people will continue to be part of nature, subject to its laws. In nature, the sudden and rapid growth of one species usually ends like this: it destroys the resources it needs to live, creating conditions that do not allow it to survive.
Slowing down the trend would be beneficial and desirable in all respects due to the climate and the condition of the natural environment. However, it would mean the need to deal with the problem of an aging society on a global scale. Migration could no longer fill the shortage of jobs in developed countries. If there was a rapid automation of work in the coming decades, the problem would be largely outdated. It should also be noted that limiting the excessive population growth in developing countries may have a beneficial effect on their economy due to increasing the financial capacity of parents in the upbringing and in particular education of their kids. The following precautionary steps are needed to prevent the population from growing too rapidly in Europe and to provide suitable life for big population nowadays.
由于气候和自然环境的条件，减缓这一趋势在各方面都是有益和可取的。然而，这意味着需要在全球范围内解决老龄化社会的问题。移民再也不能填补发达国家的工作短缺。如果在未来几十年里出现工作的快速自动化，那么这个问题在很大程度上就过时了。还应指出，限制发展中国家人口的过度增长可能对其经济产生有益的影响，因为这可以提高父母在养育子女，特别是教育子女方面的财政能力。为了防止欧洲人口增长过快，并为当今的大人口提供合适的生活，需要采取以下预防措施。
The European Union needs an economic recovery. The framework agenda takes into account the changed regulatory environment that will favour investment in human capital and encourage innovation in the productive economy. More efficient social safety nets are needed to increase market flexibility and resist deepening inequalities. There is also a clear one the need to strengthen and expand the euro area with while tackling fragmentation and the weakening of the EU-wide internal market. Solve the problem of inequalities as they weaken the cohesion of the European Union and undermine its position economic. An increasing number of citizens are excluded from the economy, and this state of affairs may go worst, because the European Union is inadequately prepared for the upcoming technological revolution. Situation this could highlight the difference between successful and unsuccessful members of society and thus further exacerbate inequalities socio-economic. The focus should be on improvement primary and secondary education, comprehensive, but affordable healthcare, increasing flexibility of the labour markets and the removal of barriers to taking over and hindering competition. The European Union can no longer afford to focus mainly on her internal problems. External challenges violate its boundaries and threatening its cohesion.
欧盟需要经济复苏。该框架议程考虑到了监管环境的变化，这将有利于人力资本投资，并鼓励生产性经济的创新。需要建立更有效的社会安全网，以提高市场灵活性，防止不平等加剧。还有一个明确的问题是，需要加强和扩大欧元区，同时应对分裂和整个欧盟内部市场的弱化。解决不平等问题，因为不平等会削弱欧盟的凝聚力，削弱其经济地位。越来越多的公民被排除在经济之外，这种情况可能会变得更糟，因为欧盟对即将到来的技术革命准备不足。这种情况可能突出成功和不成功的社会成员之间的差异，从而进一步加剧社会经济不平等。重点应放在改善小学和中学教育、全面但负担得起的医疗保健、增加劳动力市场的灵活性以及消除接管和阻碍竞争的障碍。欧盟再也不能把精力主要放在她的内部问题上。外部挑战侵犯了它的边界，威胁到它的凝聚力。
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