Valuation of the Option in a continuous time GARCH-Model
When it comes to the valuation of the Option, we general use the Black-Scholes model .while this model assumes the volatility is constant , so the value of the option is different from the actual value of the option. How to describe the future value of the volatility , is very important for us to value the option. So we use GARCH-Model to value the option, which assume the volatility exist the functional relationships between the time of t and t-1. Many researches show that the value of the option which is used by GARCH-Model is more accurate than use by Black-Scholes model.
In this paper , firstly I describe the theory of the valuation of Thesis is provided by UK thesis base the option ,and find the faults of the currently model ,such as the Black-Scholes model. Secondly I describe the features of the GARCH-Model, particularity the advantage of this model. Thirdly I will do some empirical analysis, and use the GARCH model and the Black-Scholes to value some options ,including European option and American option. Fourthly I will compare the results of these models ,and analyze the results http://www.ukthesis.org/ .
Empirical Analysis of the “Flight-To-Quality-Effect”
Flight-To-Quality-Effect is a stock market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, this is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits. Base on the currently researches, we research what touch off the Flight-To-Quality-Effect, such as features of the Macroeconomic and the financial market
SABR model: the features of the model and valuation of the option
The SABR model is a new model , which is used in the value of the finance produces. I firstly describe the features of the SABR model .Then I will use SABR model to describe and research the Black-Volatility, including the sensitive of the Black-Volatility to every model. I also describe the function of the Balck-Volatility in the model. At last I will use SABR model to value the option according to the Monte-Cario Simulat
文章翻译如下:
第一个题目:
“Empirical Analysis of the “Flight-To-Quality-Effect” ”
说明:Flight-To-Quality-Effect 是投资者在金融市场上的一种行为模型。投资者卖出那些风险程度被估计得很高的债券,然后紧接着将自己的资产以低风险的债券为内容进行重组。
投资者可以间接地根据 Flight-To-Quality-Effect 将手中的债券的收益固定化。根据“金融市场行情剧烈向下震荡情况可以触发Flight-To-Quality-Effect ”的理论假说,Flight-To-Quality-Effect 将增加高风险债券的价格地下跌,同时提高低风险债券的账面收益,也就增加了市场对低风险债券需求。
在发生 Flight-To-Quality 行为的经济周期内,两种收益的相关性为负。这和普通经济环境下的相关性正相反。换句话说,相关性结构是不平衡的,在此极端情况下发生了负相关性。#p#分页标题#e#
在前人研究的基础上,我们dissertation的重点是寻找,这种Flight-To-Quality 效应的触发点是什么。(能够触发Flight-To-Quality 效应的宏观经济特征和金融市场元素。)
基础知识:
高阶金融统计知识:time series 理论,Copulas 理论,最大似然估计理论(Maximum-Likelihood-Estimation )
金融统计软件知识:EViews, Matlab
第二个题目:
Valuation of the Option in a continuous time GARCH-Model
在80年代由Robert F. Engle 和 Tim Bollerslev 提出的 Garch 模型,对金融市场和整体经济数据的时间动态波动率进行分析。分析是基于如下假说:“随机模型误差的方差和前一时间阶段实际发生的随机 误差相关”,在此情况下,大误差和小误差各自归类分组。(波动率—收缩率)
Garch 模型在今天得到了极大的深化和发展。07年,发展出了该模型在连续时间(continuous time)情况下的运用。
dissertation的目的是:将 continuous time 条件下的 Garch 模型作为一个金融市场模型的随机驱动因素来进行运用。该模型将以随机波动率和倒闭风险作为自己的主要标志。这使得该模型正好成为传统的 Black Scholes 模型的对立物,在 Black Scholes 模型下,波动率是恒定的,而且没有破产风险。
dissertation首先应该突出理论上的问题,然后再研究模型的性质,波动率的风险溢价也适用于倒闭风险。然后使用该模型对一个 Plain Vanilla 期权在 Monte-Carlo 模拟法下进行估值。
基础知识:
时间连续的随机金融市场:估值量和量的转换,Levy Process
Matlab 软件知识。
第三个题目:
SABR 模型:模型性质和期权估值
随机Alpha, Beta, Rho 波动率模型(SABR 模型),是一个相对新的金融市场模型。目前该模型将加强其在衍生金融产品估值方面的应用。
该模型的强点是,将短期的 Call Option 和 Put Option 的市场价格联系起来。相对而言,在该模型中,波动率的长期发展趋势实质上解释了,是什么主导了长期 Option 的价格趋近市场价格。市场行话就是:该模型具有市场校正作用。这使得外部 Option 被准确估值。
对于应用者而言,该模型就是模型变量和Black-Volatility。这就是说,在市场中,Option 的价格将被包含Black-Volatility的Black-Scholes 方程来阐述。交易者将根据 Black Volatility 而不是市场价格来对Option 进行叫价。在SABR模型中,Black-Volatility被看作SABR参数的应用。
本dissertation的第一目的是,描述SABR模型和模型的性质,第二步是详细使用SABR模型参数对Black-Volatility 进行研究和描述,包括Black-Volatility对每个单一模型参数的敏感度和Black-Volatility在模型中发挥的作用的确切而详细的描述。最后请使用SABR模型按照Monte-Carlo 模拟法对一个Option进行估值。#p#分页标题#e#
时间连续的随机金融市场:估值量和量的转换,软件知识。Wiener ProcessThesis is provided by UK thesis base http://www.ukthesis.org/Matlab
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