英国留学生经济类dissertation范文：国际货币体系的演变分析Analysis of the evolution of the international monetary system

The golden age of real money
真金银子的金子时期

May 1816 , the British Parliament passed the " Mint Act ," the British gold standard system first implemented ; 1871 , Germany began to implement gold standard system ; 1879 , the United States restored gold standard , the same year, the Austro-Hungarian Empire also implemented the gold standard at this time an international gold standard system is basically formed , stable operation is interrupted in World War I , the war on the one hand allow legal tender into the stage of history , on the one hand to change the distribution of the stock of gold is indeed the beginning of the demise of the international gold standard from 1879 1914 , the "golden age" lasted for 35 years or so, stable , sound monetary system has let people cherished .
１８１６年５月，英国议融会贯通过《铸币法》，英国首先实施金币本位制度；１８７１年，德国着手实施金币本位制；１８７９年，美国还原金本位制，同年奥匈帝国也实施了金本位制，此时一个国际金币本位整体体系基本形成，稳健的运作在首次世界大战中被中断，战争一方面让法币走进历史戏台，一方面变更了金子存有的数量的散布，实为国际金本位灭亡的着手，从１８７９年到１９１４年，“金子时期”连续不断了３５年左右，牢稳、健全的金钱制度直到现在都让许多人魂牵梦绕。

In the international gold standard system, each of the major countries in the world to implement almost all gold standard monetary system , gold coins free casting, freely convertible currency , free flow of gold as an international currency , gold can solve the free flow of cross-border international payments imbalances ( gold reserves also solve part of the problem ) , but also safeguard the country relatively stable exchange rate ( exchange rate speculation further accelerate the exchange rate stability ) , the free movement of gold prices on the world level through adjustment to adjust the supply of gold , such as the world of excess money supply , the price level rose gold mining cost increases will lead to lower gold production .
在国际金本位整体体系中，天底下各个主要国度几乎全部实施金币本位金钱制度，金币自由铸造，自由兑换，自由流通，金子变成国际金钱，金子跨国的自由流动可以解决国际收入支出：失衡问题（金子贮备也解决局部问题），也保证着各国相对牢稳的汇价（汇价入垄进一步加速了汇价的牢稳），自由流动的金子经过对世界货物的价格水准调节而调节金子的供应量，例如世界金钱供应量过剩，货物的价格水准升涨，金子的挖掘花销增加会造成金子产量减低。http://www.ukthesis.org/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce/

Everything is not balanced factors will in spontaneous adjustment of status to achieve a balanced , sustained and balanced once achieved there will be self-sustaining intrinsic motivation , however, the stability and integrity of trade development is rapidly replaced by the spread of war , political and cultural differences between the final collapse of the the international monetary system , the consumption of war materiel to the limit , the government raised legal tender printed materials become inevitable , and the destruction of war, the largest stock of gold that the distribution of the gold ever goes free flow of all self-regulating mechanism fails , the gold standard the foundation has been shaken, its demise will reach. But the war accelerated material consumption , while the production of materials has also been greatly improved, the demand will increase as currency , gold supply security into question legal tender will naturally . If there is no war , only the trade , the United Kingdom because of the economic strength of the strongest pound equals that of gold , the other country's currency will be linked with the pound ( showing a similar pattern of the Bretton Woods system ) . With economic development , material wealth , population growth , deflation in the next evolution of money illusion economic crisis , this time will be almost certain legal tender .

" Wizard of Oz" ( Frank Baum 's fairy tale 1900 masterpiece " The Wizard of Oz " was alluding to his own silver coins minted economic freedom advocates ) in the Tao Lisi turning heel , knock three times on each flew back after dreaming of home , while gold standard homes already have changed .

Genuine gold standard

Liberalism and gold anchor
Liberals Friedman supports no anchor currency, that the Government should not be expressed in national currency gold price fixing , abandoned in favor of a fixed exchange rate between the national currency , advocate the use of market-determined floating exchange rate regime , the price of any fixed , are the gold standard. Another Authenticating Hayek's thought of the gold standard gold anchor , gold prices expressed in national currencies must be fixed, the task of the government is to maintain the fixed parity , the Government did not peg gold is pseudo- gold standard . Two seemingly opposite ideas, but they can explain the same phenomenon , but two different monetary system can not be tested in human society , to examine what kind of transaction costs is smaller, less theoretically make a simple deduction .

Starting from the Friedman's ideas , the author called the free market gold standard , assuming an increase in the supply of gold country , through market clearing , currency price of gold fell , the price level of gold prices , the currency exchange rate for foreign currency , causing the outflow of gold ( gold points of modest , assuming one kind of another gold coin cost alternative to 0 ) , the supply of gold fell , gold prices rise in local currency , price level , exchange rates and the price level at this time there is a self-regulating mechanism, the Government merely to protect the free movement of gold .

The rapid development of domestic goods , faster than the supply of gold , the relative decrease in the supply of gold , the gold currency prices, the price of gold prices, gold inflows, if countries were the case, lead to global deflation . Deflation is not terrible , terrible is deflationary monetary illusion caused by political issues , social issues, the government at this time multiple currencies , caused by the free market gold currency prices, the price of gold prices, gold inflows , countries all this is so, then the free market to solve the problem of shortage of gold production . Government to solve is the social problems caused by money illusion , if not money illusion , the government is not required to come forward , but the Government once tasted the benefits of multi -currency , it will continue to intervene in the free market , could trigger inflation worldwide , instead of hyperinflation money illusion is that people are willing to accept.

Starting from Hayek's ideas , referred to herein as the anchor of the gold standard, gold , gold price in local currency fixed ( either the government sale of gold , or the government regulate money circulation , or both facilities ) , if the gold stock rose , a government it should be an increase of the money supply , the currency against foreign currency exchange rate stable, but the price level of gold prices and currency prices rose , export commodity prices led to outflow of gold , the government in order to fix the gold currency prices, money supply adjusted accordingly , price level , the price level at this time there is a self-regulating mechanism , the government should fix the currency price of gold and maintain political security free movement of gold .

Gold gold anchor will encounter the soft underbelly of the gold standard , gold production can not keep up with the growth rate of commodities , gold will always be relatively insufficient , causing global deflation. Since wage rigidity , the government at this time is difficult to hold the currency price of gold , if still abide gold standard, the government announced only once , hold a higher gold price in local currency , on the one hand can not grasp the rise in money supply , on the other cause gold to centralized government , the currency in foreign exchange rates decreased in each country have been completed this process, will not be able to maintain a fixed exchange rate regime , while countries to complete the new parity pegged to gold , they can be resumed at a new level of fixed exchange rate system this could also solve the problem of shortage of gold production .

Visible , as long as strict compliance with true gold standard , no matter what kind of true gold standard , can solve their own problems . Free market gold standard relies on spontaneous market regulation, the Government does not intervene , just resist the temptation of currency circulation , the gold standard system of anchors rely on the government's ability to regulate , governments need to firmly anchor the gold. Insight into the changes in the market to allow the Government to allow the Government to grasp this right , and transaction costs should be in the market self-regulation on the individual that the anchor of gold gold standard method is simple , the operation is more difficult, although the gold standard free market when the crisis will become cold ruthless, in most cases, should win a chip .

Genuine gold standard, easily recognizable in essence , when the war changed the distribution of gold , the gold and can not flow freely when the demise of the gold standard that has already begun , and here the specific theoretical deduction , is really the gold standard in the analysis under the adjustment mechanism so that you can explain gold standard , gold exchange standard , the Bretton Woods system and the presumed direction of development of the world monetary system .

Pseudo- gold standard and the Great Depression

World war aggravated the imbalance in the distribution of gold , the gold flow is restricted, can not return to full international gold standard , in 1922 major Western countries in the world monetary conference held in Genoa, Italy , proposed to implement the gold exchange standard , in addition to the United States, Britain, France Three gold standard system implementation , other nations that have adopted the gold exchange standard , the currency and the U.S. dollar , sterling or franc pegged by these three currencies pegged to gold , thus locking the transmission channels of the crisis . Here mainly to talk with gold hooks United States, Britain , France and the gold standard system, the gold standard system to act as a currency circulation of bank notes , gold output in the case , bank notes can be exchanged for gold and there was exchange restrictions .

Free market gold standard that fixed currency price of gold has become a price control , is a pseudo- gold standard , a free market gold standard can be understood as the government do not control, let the free market self-coordination ; gold anchor the gold standard that the government did not try to maintain a fixed gold this is a pseudo- currency price of the gold standard , gold anchor gold standard can be understood as the government must manage it must necessarily manage , apparently both consensus for the government's mistakes led to running a pseudo- gold standard , this pseudo gold standard lose the ability to self-regulation , inevitable self- destruction.
First World War, the United States implemented expansionary policies lead to higher prices , the gold outflow , in order to prevent the outflow of gold , the Federal Reserve System from late 1919 , and again in January 1920 and May took significantly more severe deflation measures, which first led to the money stock growth slowed , and later led to a sharp decline in the stock of money , which the wholesale price collapse into a severe economic contraction. Be considered the gold standard with the free market , the outflow of gold to a certain extent by the free market forces , outflow rate will slow until the reflux , and the government 's monetary policy interferes with their self-coordination , in accordance with the gold standard gold anchor to consider the government 's austerity monetary policy transition , failure to maintain the currency price of gold . United Kingdom April 28, 1925 at Churchill's strong support, announced the pre-war parity restored the gold standard, but this recovery is different from McKinnon "Recovery Principles " ( when a country for any reason whatsoever or manner temporarily interrupted when gold convertibility , the premise is assumed to be in a crisis or emergency after the end of this country will be restored traditional gold parity freely convertible ) , when the war changed world situation , all countries can not be restored when the pre-war parity , this " recovery " is not reversion , but out of the UK is the new level to adjust its currency price of gold , resulting in sterling overvalued, in order to stabilize the pre-war parity , England serious deflation . The late 1920s, the French approach is totally contrary to the implementation of the " Pu Enjia to reform" devaluation policy that France maintained the post-war parity. France and the United States, the British gold seal makes deflationary pressures greater shaken the position of the United Kingdom , in 1931 to give up the gold standard .

United States made ​​the same mistake a second time, in 1931 , when the United States from the gold standard , and the U.S. is experiencing outflow of gold , the Federal Reserve System to change course once again , made ​​the gold outflow overreact , but this currency crunch time when the recovery phase of the economic cycle , which greatly exacerbated the recession , but also significantly prolongs the recession cycle.

Disintegration of the Bretton Woods system

December 27, 1945 , 22 countries participated in the meeting on behalf of Bretton Woods in the " Bretton Woods Agreement " was signed , formally established in IMF and World Bank. Since then, the development of the international monetary system began a new era in the history . Bretton Woods system , the dollar and gold directly linked to national currencies are pegged to the dollar and 35 dollars according to the official price of an ounce of gold to the U.S. exchange .

The establishment of the Bretton Woods system , a considerable period of time after the war , had brought unprecedented development of international trade and the global economy increasingly interdependent era. The fixed dollar price of gold , and all countries to adhere to a fixed dollar price of the currency of each country's government gave a problem, if the United States insist on a fixed dollar price of gold , Triffin dilemma is non-existent , which is anchored in gold the gold standard , the dollar 's circulation strictly hold the amount of gold , confidence in the dollar from gold , rather than trade surplus with the United States to continue to ensure that national confidence in the dollar , the Korean War , the Vietnam War , the oil crisis, the U.S. government can not stick to a fixed the dollar price of gold : one dollar expansion , on the one hand to reduce the gold , the fixed dollar price of gold has become price control. The countries pegged to the dollar , exchange rate movements can not regulate the use of the international balance of payments , conduction inflation.

Pseudo- gold standard , countries will lose confidence in the dollar , August 15, 1971 , the "New Economic Policy" ceased to fulfill foreign governments or central banks available to the U.S. dollar gold convertibility obligations. April 1, 1974 officially excluded from international agreements, currency and gold fixed relationship , dollar -centric total collapse of Bretton Woods .

Build a world currency reverie

Anyway , history among the government or frequently shot , deflation occur rarely , inflation is a relatively easy thing to do , after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system of Jamaica system , completely non-monetary gold , international reserves are trusted in any currency or country materials , exchange rate regime diversified to become a non- system of the system, with the outbreak of the financial crisis spread , so that people once again was desire to maintain global financial stability , promote world economic development of the international reserve currency , namely finding a gold alternatives.

Build world currency - Special Drawing Rights

March 2009 , the British central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in the " on the reform of the international monetary system thinking" to learn from Keynes Bancor ideas, the role of the IMF SDR issue further expansion , and thus reconstruct the international monetary system . Uneven distribution of gold , making the return of the gold standard can not be achieved , SDR paper gold alternatives gold , can solve the uneven distribution of gold , but the dollar has replaced gold distributed to the national reserve currency , after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system , the country 's foreign exchange reserves All of the foreign currency should be converted into SDR, SDR allocation becomes a problem , is to take the free-market based or take a fixed price based SDR currency ? Ideal state is a single SDR reserves ...... , growth rate kept pace with the global economy , to take the free market based, to achieve a floating exchange rate system ; suboptimal state governments to SDR as anchors, fixed the SDR currency prices, the implementation fixed exchange rate regime , SDR can not be achieved if domestic circulation , sub- ideal state to implement a high possibility , but no matter what kind of ideal state, the government still has devalued the motives of any one country are likely to non-compliance " gentlemen's agreement" , and then enter a kind of pseudo- gold standard state, this state is a pseudo gold standard international speculation would expect, as the 1997 Asian economic crisis baht because national policies can not be pegged to the dollar , the currency will be devalued because of their own can not be pegged to SDR, will become international speculation goal.
Non- political and cultural integration , borders still to establish the world 's self- regulating mechanisms of public money will eventually be self- disintegrate in the game among the countries .

A basket of goods as anchor

A basket of goods as the anchor , the anchor of gold is exchanged for gold in a basket of goods by Steven Cheung raised. The price of a fixed basket of goods range , or government trading a basket of commodities , or the amount of money the government regulation . The government is unlikely to buy and sell goods , the biggest problem is that this idea of ​​delay, that is, from the amount of the adjustment to the impact of currency to a basket of commodity price index of the time, no matter what this delay will encounter ideas . A basket of commodities as the anchor of the actual amount of the currency and commodity quantity to be linked with the quantity theory of money is the same idea , to stabilize domestic prices, liberalize the exchange rate . The amount of currency and commodity quantity linked to a country's currency is strong , which is the currency of a country 's external credit guarantee , if countries have this as anchors, liberalize the exchange rate is also nothing wrong with such an international monetary system , we do not need world currency , because each country's currency with credit guarantees , and certain foreign exchange can be saved as a national emergency ( such as shortening the economic cycle recession ) . Perfect peg to a basket of commodity prices, difficult, a basket of commodity prices ( currency adjusted over the last ) , rose marginally , the government can take the opportunity to change the appropriate anchor to resolve quantity than the quantity of money , but about peg You can also maintain the corresponding steady state conditions of each country starting from this idea , it is worth a try.

Epilogue

If stricter enforcement of the free market gold standard , deflation, short-term money illusion causes the free market transaction costs and renewed , this time the role of government-issued currency is the key , if strictly enforced gold anchor gold standard , the government would be unwise to intervene in the market ( no peg anchor ) , but also make the transaction costs and renewed government intervention , most regulatory role of market mechanisms is greater than government intervention , and the government for other reasons ( political, cultural , etc. ) and had to intervene in the market , will the pattern appears today . Deflation is the negative impact of money illusion , slight inflation is a positive impact on money illusion , a false hope and confidence encourage people to produce more goods , why not do it . Looking back at history , the war is more than trade boost productivity , and now trade more than the war to promote productivity, the international monetary system will be as the political , cultural integration and development , perhaps in a way to promote political and cultural integration, which is an era of globalization . The international monetary system will be no such system is still in the system, the regional cultural similarities may form regional currency ( or currency from one country instead of ) , and then with cultural, political integration , monetary zone continuous integration .