英国留学生经济学案例分析小dissertation：咖啡种植及经营的市场分析Coffee-growing market analysis and operations

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1. COFFEE BEAN PRODUCERS (GROWERS)
1、咖啡豆生产商（种植者）

‘Coffee is the world’s second most valuable traded commodity, behind only petroleum’i.
咖啡是世界上第二个最有价值买卖的商品，仅次于石油。

Growing Coffee
种植咖啡

There are about 25 million coffee farmers and coffee workers in more than 50 countries situated in the tropical regions of the world. Coffee beans come from trees that grow best in rich soil and at a high altitude. Brazil is by far the largest producer, followed by Colombia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico. Coffee is also grown in Africa, with Ethiopia being the largest of that continent’s producersii.
有大约25万咖啡农和咖啡工人在超过50个国家和地区，坐落在世界上的热带地区。来自树木生长最丰富的土壤和高海拔的咖啡豆。巴西是目前世界上最大的生产商，其次是哥伦比亚，越南，印度尼西亚和墨西哥。咖啡也生长在非洲，与埃塞俄比亚是这片大陆上最大的生产商。

Coffee plantations vary in size, but the small farm is common. Traditional coffee growing is labour-intensive; that is, there is little automation and constant worker attention is required. Coffee seeds are planted, in areas with good shade, and are tended as they grow. The area around the trees is weeded. The berries, which contain the coffee beans, are picked and the beans contained therein are dried. Coffee trees produce berries for harvest after around 5 years (and then continue to produce for many years).
In Brazil, however, new industrial methods have been developed whereby large areas of land, not usually used to grow coffee, are cleared of trees by tractors (the cut trees are sold to other businesses). Coffee seeds are planted. Water is pumped from rivers to the plantation. Coffee can grow well in the sun without shade if fertilisers, fungicides and other chemicals are added to the water. The areas around the trees are sprayed to kill the weeds. This method encourages rapid growth so coffee beans may be harvested after 18 months, with the highest yields occurring after 42 months. Machines are used to pick the berries and extract and process the coffee beans.
This new mechanised method also reduces labour costs. More coffee trees can be planted close together so can be more easily watered and fertilised. Moreover, because of the larger size of the plantation, economies of scale further reduce costs. Nevertheless, few coffee farmers have enough money to set up new plantations and use the new mechanised methodsiii.

Small scale coffee farmers predominate globally and cannot control the price. In Ethiopia, for example, the farmers struggle to earn an income. There are other more profitable crops, such as corn, sugar and ‘khat’ (a mild narcotic drug). However, it is expensive to switch to growing another crop. Once coffee trees are producing, it makes sense to keep producing even if prices are low. In any event, land suitable for coffee (in terms of soil and altitude) is not necessarily suitable for other crops. There would be high transition costs involved in pulling out coffee trees, planting other crops, and learning new growing techniquesiv.

Price in the coffee growing market

Coffee is a globally traded commodity. The trade price, which changes daily, is set by the New York and the London coffee exchanges (similar to share markets and foreign exchange markets)v. Coffee is bought by large multinationals involved in the processing, marketing and retailing of coffee. In addition, increasingly large amounts of coffee are traded for the purpose of investment and speculation. The latter makes up ‘around 80% of the coffee trade, with only 20% based on sales of real coffee’vi.

The price of coffee goes up and down for a number of reasons. In terms of supply, the variables include changes in weather conditions (hurricanes and heavy rain causing mudslides and erosion), transportation costs (eg oil), and political situations. Another key variable is speculation about production levels. However, since Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, the most important influencing factor in global coffee prices is the weather in that country - droughts and frosts damage the coffeevii. More generally, there is concern that coffee supply is likely to come under serious threat from climate change. Central American farmers ‘were already experiencing changing rainfall patterns and more severe pest infestations’viii.

On the demand side, a key factor contributing to increased consumption is the economic growth, with its associated rise in incomes and lifestyle changes (ie ‘café culture’), in India, China and other Asian economies. In this sense, coffee demand has high income elasticity. However, price elasticity is lowix. The current global recession, for example, had only a small impact on the demand for coffeex. Nevertheless, it is possible that demand may fall in traditionally high coffee-consuming countries. In Scandinavia, Europe and the USA, there are signs that habits are changing and there is an increasing interest in alternative drinks to coffee.

Coffee growing and the environment

‘Coffee ranks as one of top three most heavily pesticide sprayed crops in the world’xi

As mentioned above, traditional coffee growing techniques in parts of Central and South America were replaced by industrial methods to increase crop yields. This resulted in deforestation, chemical fertiliser and pesticide pollution, and the extinction of birdlife. There is a risk, too, that coffee workers will suffer from drinking water contaminated by chemicalsxii. Given the low incomes of coffee farmers, very few of them can afford to invest in ‘clean and green’ technology.

2. COFFEE RETAIL – CAFES

Coffee shops have become central to the British way of life. The economic downturn has had little effect on sales, with the market reaching a high of £5.0 billion turnover at the end of 2010. Consumers have a large amount of choice in a market that contains 14,022 outlets. Of these, 4,645 are branded chains, such as Costa, Starbucks and Nero, accounting for 33% of outlets and 39% of total market revenue. They confront increasing competition on price from the non-specialist operators, such as McDonalds and Wetherspoon’s. Artisanal independent operators, offering high quality coffee and a unique experience, are predicted to put more pressure on the branded chains xiii.
Unlike coffee beans, retail coffee is not traded as a commodity. Prices in the coffee shop market do not fluctuate as they do in the coffee growing market. As the coffee
moves through the stages of roasting and brewing, the price becomes stable. Consumers would not respond well to rapid changes in their daily cup of coffeexiv.

Coffee shops, however, are not making it easy for consumers to recycle takeaway cups. One consumer group said that the recycling instructions, describing how to recycle different parts of the packaging, are confusing. As a result, 2.5 billion cups are thrown away in general waste bins every year in the UK. Disposable cups mainly contain cardboard, but they also contain some polyethylene (a plastic resin)xv. The consumer group argued that the coffee shops should do more to help customers recycle their cups. However, the Foodservice Packaging Association (FPA – a business association) replied that the shops were not to blame. Local governments should develop their public recycling facilities, while customers should take more responsibility for disposing of the packaging of the products they choose to purchasexvi.