英国经济学dissertation：对经济价值、现金流量折现法和鼓励贴现法的比较
The comparison among Economic Value Added (EVA), Discount Cash Flow (DCF) and Dividend Discount Method (DDM)
经济价值（EVA），现金流量折现法（DCF）和股利贴现法（DDM）之间的比较
The review of EVA, DDM and DCF
EVA，DDM和DCF的回顾
Before the investors begin to invest into one project, they will usually make an assessment in order to decide whether to put money in or not. Currently, all the financial institution or banks adapt three methods; they are EVA, DCF, and DDM. As calculation of these three methods are based on different input data and assumptions from different aspects, so when people use any one of these three methods, sometimes will obtain the adverse conclusion. Like Alex Faseruk said: “the existence of this discrepancy between these models is dizzy.”
投资者开始投资于一个项目之前，，他们通常会作出评估，以决定是否把钱投入。目前，所有的金融机构或银行适应三种方法，他们是EVA，DCF和DDM。计算这三种方法都是基于不同的输入数据和从不同的方面假设，所以，当人们使用这三种方法中的任何一个，有时会得到不利的结论。像Alex Faseruk的说：“这些模型之间的这种差异的存在是头晕目眩。”
The definition of EVA, DCF and DDM
f EVA, DCF和 DDM的定义
DDM
A procedure for valuing the price of a stock by using predicted dividends and discounting them back to present value. The idea is that if the value obtained from the DDM is higher than what the shares are currently trading at, then the stock is undervalued.
Value of stock= dividend per share/discount rate-dividend growth rate
股票价值=股息/每股折现率股利增长率
DCF
A valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.
贴现现金流（DCF）分析采用未来现金流量预测及折扣（最经常使用的加权平均资本成本），到达现值，这是用来评估潜在的投资。
Calculated as:
DCF=cf1/(1+r)1+cf2/(1+r)2+......+cfn/(1+r)n
Cf=cash flow
R=discount rate (WACC)
EVA
A measure of a company's financial performance based on the residual wealth calculated by deducting cost of capital from its operating profit (adjusted for taxes on a cash basis, also referred to as "economic profit".)
The formula for calculating EVA is as follows:
= Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT) - (Capital * Cost of Capital)
EVA的计算公式如下：#p#分页标题#e#
=税后净营业利润（NOPAT） - （资本*资本成本）
The comparison among EVA, DCF and DDM
EVA, DCF 和 DDM之间的比较
http://www.ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/
First of all, let us talk about DCF method. From the definition above, apparently, DCF is based on the assessment of present value in cash flow. Irving Fisher first posed this concept in his book "The Theory of Interest" 1930 and John Burr Williams's 1938 text 'The Theory of Investment Value' first formally expressed the DCF method in modern economic terms.
首先，让我们谈谈DCF方法。从上面的定义中，显然，DCF是基于现金流量的现值评估。欧文•费雪（Irving Fisher）首先提出了这个概念，在他的著作“利息”1930年和1938年约翰•伯尔•威廉姆斯的文本“理论投资价值'的第一个正式表示DCF法在现代经济条款的理论。
From their points, the time value of cash should be considered priory, it means that all the future cash flow must be estimated and discounted by their present value, and the sum of all the cash flow, whatever the incomings and outgoings, the amount of all the cash flow is NPV (net present value). If NPV is positive, it reflect that this project could be invested because the revenue is high than the costs, investors acquire the profits, and vice verse.
In DCF model, how to judge the discount rate is the key point, because it decides the model success or not. Jaime Sabal made a point in his article “WACC OR APV”. He said, basically, people usually use the WACC (Weighted average cost of capital) as the discount rate in DCF model, which reflects two parts of the cash flows;
1. the time value of money (risk-free rate) – according to the theory of time preference, investors would rather have cash immediately than having to wait and must therefore be compensated by paying for the delay.
2 .a risk premium – reflects the extra return investors demand because they want to be compensated for the risk that the cash flow might not materialize after all.
So that is the reason why DCF model is used widely, because it is a comprehensive method. DCF model adapt WACC as discount rate, it considers all the influence which bring by different aspects, include impact from equity, debt etc. Due to the combination of all the factors, using WACC could more precisely to value the return rate of investment than other models.
Ben McClure, the director of McClure & Co said, instead of trying to come up with a fair value stock price, investors can plug the company's current stock price into the DCF model and, working backwards, calculate how quickly the company would have to grow its cash flows to achieve the stock price. DCF analysis can help investors identify where the company's value is coming from and whether or not its current share price is justified.#p#分页标题#e#
But free cash flow is difficult and volatile to measure. Michel Habib, and Rudolf Volkart in his text (From Cash Flows to Accounting Numbers in Valuation) said: In many cases, the only discipline imposed on the person estimating the cash flows is self-discipline, especially when estimating cash flows in the distant future. Given the difficulty of forecasting far into the future, some constant rate of growth in cash flows must be assumed beyond some future year.
In general, valuations are extremely sensitive to this growth rate, which by necessity is assumed to go on forever, this naturally dents the credibility of DCF valuations. It represent that in the DCF model any small changes in inputs can result in large changes in the value of a company. Because in the long term, the inputs that produce these valuations are always changing and DCF model will susceptible to error. Like people always said: “garbage in, garbage out”. A single, unexpected event can immediately make a DCF model obsolete. For example, using DCF to analyze commercial real estate during any but the early years of a boom market will lead to overvaluation of the asset.48 Furthermore, with its focus on long-range investing; the DCF model isn't suited for short-term investments.
