都柏林大学University College Dublin：关于经济发展方式转变的视角分析

An Introduction

 

In recent years, China's diplomacy to adjust, diplomatic transformation and even diplomatic relations reform is the China International scholars discuss hot topics. The basic idea of ​​literature and the main points can be roughly summarized as follows: As Chinese national strength, international status and international influence expanded, other countries, especially the United States is the only superpower, and China's neighboring countries anxieties and apprehensions, and their international strategies and Foreign policy adjustments, China faced international and regional environment changes, China's past international strategy, strategy and foreign policy all the failure or partial failure, therefore, China's diplomacy must be adjusted restructuring or reform. It should be said that the above ideas and perspectives for the interpretation of China's diplomacy adjustment is undoubtedly valuable, but also has some explanatory power, but still further study. In my opinion, due to economic factors, political and social life for the basic role, but also because of internal affairs for a diplomatic priority, therefore, we should observe China from changes in domestic economic activity and the impact of the start, explaining China Diplomatic adjustment root causes, and thus starting to adjust the direction of China's diplomatic thinking, goals and other specific content. In China's domestic economic life, economic development mode shift the focus in recent years, difficulties, especially in 2008 after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, because the world economic environment and domestic economic environment has undergone profound changes, the necessity and urgency of further highlighted. Therefore, from this point of view of economic development mode shift observed Chinese diplomatic adjustments may be able to carry out a more convincing explanation made more valuable judgments.

近年来，中国外交调整、外交转型乃至外交改革是中国国际关系学界探讨的热门议题之一。相关文献的基本思路和主要观点大致可以概括为：由于中国国力增强，国际地位提升，国际影响扩大，其他国家特别是唯一的超级大国美国和中国周边国家产生忧虑和疑惧，并各自进行国际战略和对外政策的调整，中国所面临的国际和地区环境发生变化，中国既往的国际战略、策略和外交政策全部失效或部分失效，因此，中国外交必须调整、转型或者改革。

Based on the above understanding, this article will first discuss a country's economic development and its diplomatic relations between; followed by analysis of China's economic development mode shift may lead to economic and social changes; finally how to respond to such changes, adjustments made for Chinese diplomacy Several recommendations.

基于上述认识，本文将首先讨论一国的经济发展方式与其外交之间的关系；其次分析中国经济发展方式转变可能引发的经济和社会的变化；最后就如何因应这种变化、进行中国外交调整提出若干建议。#p#分页标题#e#

Two brief theoretical and historical analysis

二 简要的理论和历史分析

In theory, a country's economic development and its diplomatic relations between the mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

从理论上讲，一国的经济发展方式与其外交之间的关系主要体现在以下三个方面：

First, a country's economic development determines its foreign objectives, tasks and layout. The main methods of economic development, including economic growth, economic way to share the results of economic activities and the natural environment coupling three aspects, including economic growth is the prerequisite and foundation. In order to ensure their sustained, stable growth, rising to meet the material needs of citizens, in addition to those in power must maintain a generally stable domestic political and social order, should also maintain a generally stable and the overall favorable international environment, in order to ensure that the domestic and international resources and markets can be effectively applied. In essence, a state of anarchy in international society, to maintain a favorable international environment for its own, those in power must take full advantage of the existing diplomatic resources, and for a reasonable configuration. In summary, a diplomatic goals, tasks, and layout is not a vacuum, it is always based on the internal affairs of demand, especially their economic needs. Not out of the internal affairs of demand, especially demand in the economy purely foreign affairs. Therefore, once the country's economic needs change, the economic growth mode transformation of the mode of economic development as a whole, and its diplomacy must also be adjusted accordingly, in order to effectively perform their functions.

 

Second, a country's economic development mode selected appropriate or not, its international status, have an important impact on diplomatic space. Because natural resource endowments, domestic market size, economic operation, the external environment facing the national strategic objectives and different factors, each country chosen mode of economic development is very different; even in the same country, in different historical periods The selected mode of economic development are quite different. Select a different mode of economic development, and its performance is also significant differences. The use of appropriate economic development, can effectively enhance the country's hard power, and help enhance its international status, to expand its diplomatic space. On the contrary, the use of improper mode of economic development, it is likely to lead to national development fails or growth without development, and thus seriously undermine the hard power of the country, to enhance the international status and expanding diplomatic space naturally out of the question.

 

Finally, the quality of a diplomatic impact of their domestic economic development more and more direct, is also growing. In-depth development of globalization, interdependence among countries an unprecedented increase in the background, a diplomatic affairs with their domestic economic development are becoming increasingly closer. Without quality diplomacy, national sovereignty, security and overseas interests are not effectively protected; country's foreign relations may even be dangerous in an unstable state, with other international actors friction between the conflict and even war could break out . And a diplomatic ineptitude even in a serious setback for the regime, will face the domestic public, interest groups --- especially those with extensive contacts with other state of the domestic public, interest groups --- the enormous pressure. This pressure is often transformed into a threat to the legitimacy of the regime. Once such things happen, those in power will inevitably need to spend a lot of energy, the use of various resources, use of various means to be resolved, and thus can not effectively carry out domestic economic development.#p#分页标题#e#

 

From a practical perspective, a country's economic development and the close diplomatic ties do exist.

 

First look at the case of Japan after World War II. As a great shortage of natural resources, the domestic market is small, so the Japanese economy has a very high degree of dependence of foreign. With a well-known economist Mitchell Mandelbaum (Michael Man-delbaum)'s words: "Japan's dependence on foreign necessities than any one industrial nations." And a defeated position limits demilitarization , but it can only choose pacifist national development route. The combined effect of these two factors must be taken in order to determine the Japanese "export-oriented" as the core of economic development. This, in turn Japan's diplomatic strategy, diplomacy layout and specific foreign policy had a very big impact: on the one hand, it must attach great importance and priority to deal with other developed countries, especially the relationship between the United States, to ensure that key international markets stable; other hand, it must attach great importance to and seriously deal with the major national resource supply, adjacent to its maritime strategic channels mainly those countries --- the relationship between small developing countries --- in order to ensure supply of resources stability. But the latter they often conflict with the former, which led to Japan often take some seem contradictory, inconsistent diplomatic behavior. "Its foreign policy is an important feature for the international situation made opportunistic adjustment, time and time again with significant changes in the external environment and jumped on the bandwagon." For example, in 1973 the fourth Middle East war broke out, the face of the Gulf Arab oil weapon threats and the growing economic crisis in the domestic Japanese had to take there are important differences with the previous "new Middle East policy", the core of the Arab countries are opposed to Israel's occupation of the territory, respecting the territorial integrity of all countries in the Middle East and security respect for the Palestinians based on the "UN Charter" legitimate rights. This is not only the first time in the diplomatic war Japan and the United States adopted different policies, but also with the relevant policies of the EC countries are quite different, which could cause them serious discontent sides of the Atlantic States. Again, in 1989, the "sanctions in the United States in China, Japan has been reluctant to play a role, but in order to maintain a consistent West, barely seven western countries agreed to impose sanctions on China summit resolutions." In 1990, Japan took the lead in the G7 lift the sanctions against China, restoring third yen loans to China. This will also lead to strong resentment among its Western allies. Japan did so largely because it was sluggish domestic economy.

 

 

Second, look at the case of the United States. Unlike Japan, the United States a vast country rich in natural resources, has a huge domestic market, are facing a more favorable external environment; But with Japan the same, its foreign economic development also had a significant impact. The decades after the founding, America was isolationist foreign policy --- performance in the economic field of trade protectionism, in addition to geographical factors, its mainly to agricultural production and the use of a relatively closed economy operating mechanism has a great relationship. After the 1830s, with the completion of the domestic industrial revolution, economic internationalization become America's urgent need, therefore, it began to pursue foreign expansion policy, uphold the supremacy of color with a strong Monroe Doctrine. Specializing in the 18th century, early 19th century American diplomatic historian Bradford Perkins (Bradford Perkins) wrote: After the War of 1812, the United States, "ushered in the upsurge of nationalism, and its logo is a commitment promote U.S. trade, expanding territory have little attention to the past, to expand its influence in the Western Hemisphere region. these efforts in 1823 which culminated in the Monroe Doctrine, "and continued until the late 19th early 20th century. Therefore, the United States emerged as a world-class country. In the 20th century, the U.S. domestic economic development and its ambitious foreign expansion policy more closely. In another well-known historian by Irie Akira (Aki-ra Iriye) called "America's globalization," the first half of the 20th century, America was a willingness and ability to get deeply involved over the world security, economic and cultural affairs among its relying on efficient capital investment and technological progress, and efforts to promote global free trade, economic development has a direct relationship. It is thanks to this economic development, the United States greatly enhance the strength and international status, its capital, technology and commodities wider access to world markets, so as the post-war international order provided the economic basis; its powerful military strength of the victory of the world anti-fascist war, made an important contribution to post-war international order provides security and political foundation. Europe, the United States has thus succeeded to become the leader of the capitalist world. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy continues to pursue liberal trade policy, abandoned its extensive way and instead take a more intensive way of scientific and technological progress; after the Cold War, is entering the so-called "knowledge economic times, "scientific and technological progress in economic development, the importance of further highlighted. Thus further enhance the strength of the United States. Correspondingly, the U.S. foreign policy and foreign acts of hegemonism and power politics has become even more intense colors, and even once appeared in "American empire had" argument. But this aggressive "behavior Empire" also seriously distract the attention of the United States, the United States consumes a lot of strength, strong corrosion of the U.S. economic operation mechanism. Therefore, the relative decline of the United States in recent years, the domestic severe financial crisis to some extent even the economic and social crisis, it is not hard to understand. In short, America's economic development and its diplomatic interaction between the existence of a relationship; especially in the 20th century, U.S. foreign economic, political and military, "the expansion of these three intertwined and mutually influence and promote each other to become the U.S. economy Modernization extremely important part. "#p#分页标题#e#

 

Finally, the new changes in China's foreign policy also reflects the impact of economic development pattern. 1950s early 1970s, as the combined effect of various factors at home and abroad, China is self-employed as the basic characteristics of the planned economic development. Although this period has made some achievements, but as time goes on, the model exposed more and more problems, more and more serious. In the late 1970s, the model has been difficult to sustain. Internally, the overall level of productivity is still low, the national economy on the brink of collapse, the rationality of the model has been widely questioned, and jeopardize the legitimacy of the social system and the ruling party. Externally, began in the early 1970s, the international liberalization of product and factor markets, to increase the scale of two major trends in world trade, and increased self-sufficiency in China to implement economic policy, the opportunity cost to continue using this model is clearly no future . In this context, China's top decision-makers decided to abandon the original model of economic development, began to develop a market economy and export-oriented economy, and to develop and implement a strategy of opening up. "Outside world, including the developed countries open, but also open to developing countries are open to all countries of the world," but the key lies in the developed countries, especially the United States, Japan's opening, this must be adjusted Sino-US, Sino-Japanese bilateral relations the two. This is because the United States, Japan was ranked in the world top two developed economies and innovation base. On the gross domestic product (GDP) to see, in 1980, the United States was $ 2.77 trillion, Japan $ 1.09 trillion, were ranked first and second in the world; on patent applications (residents and non- and residents), the United States was 104 329, 191 020 in Japan, were ranked second in the world and the first one; terms of total reserves (including gold), the United States is a $ 71.42 billion, Japan $ 38.92 billion, a breakdown of the world's first and fifth place. Therefore, the two countries with the US-Japan relationship is good or bad, directly determines the size of China's external markets and to attract technology, how much external funding. In order to ease the external world, Deng Xiaoping

 

1982 held in the historic turning point of China Twelfth National Congress of the Communist Party of his opening remarks, solemn promise: "We unswervingly implement the opening-up policy, on the basis of equality and mutual benefit and actively expand foreign exchanges." After the previous National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party were to confirm this, and become China's basic national policy. In order to implement the basic national policy, services, national development, particularly economic development, more than 30 years, the Chinese Foreign abandoned the principle of drawing lines of ideology has changed, "a line, a large" layout, and gradually established a "non-aligned" diplomatic principle and the "Low Profile" strategic approach, forming a "great power is the key, the surrounding is the most important, is the focus of developing countries, multilateral is a stage" layout, clear the "core interests" and "significant interest" "general interest" national interest structure and accordingly allocation of resources, the establishment of diplomatic policy advisory system and the corresponding organization. From a practical effect, this from the "revolutionary diplomacy" to "building diplomacy" transformation on the whole successful diplomatic work "for domestic security and stability, promoting development, the transformation of economic development mode" to create a favorable external environment. China 'economy from 1978 to 2010 more than quadrupled, reaching $ 5.88 trillion, accounting for the proportion of the world economy from 1.8% to 9.3%. "#p#分页标题#e#http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce

 

Based on the above summary of the research, we can draw the following preliminary conclusions: a country's economic development and its diplomatic ties exist between, where the former plays a fundamental role; once the country's economic development has undergone major changes, the Diplomacy must also be adjusted accordingly. Therefore, to in-depth understanding of a country's diplomatic behavior, foreign policy and even diplomatic strategy to predict the changes that may occur from an analysis of their economic development is a very effective way to start the path.