通用动力公司和洛克希德马丁公司财务报表分析
时间:2016-03-01 19:17:02 来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者：英国论文网 点击:189次
通用动力公司和洛克希德马丁公司 这种分析提供了一种比较两个主要公司通用动力公司和洛克希德马丁公司在航空航天和国防工业的方法。通用动力公司的ROE是25%而洛克希德·马丁公司是49%。相比GD，以前有高于股权资本的成本的高传播和产生高回报。GD产生更高的NOPAT保证金在航空航天(分别为9.4%和7.8%)允许GD ROE案件的判决结果作出更大贡献的减少利息支出对净利润和对总销售收入的影响。以前有一个相当大的优势,,通过生成1.37美元每一美元相比GD的1.08美元每一美元花在公司资产上导致资产周转率增加。通用动力公司的股票非常低估(大约77.71美元的收盘价相比，57.79美元),而洛克希德·马丁公司的股票有点高估(85.93美元的收盘价相比，84.08美元)。股票估值表明投资者过于乐观在以前的收入潜力和悲观GD的收入潜力。尽管估值,这个行业的命运仍是依赖政府决定减少军费开支,这将对两家公司产生负面影响。然而,商业航空公司的扩张和伙伴关系与医疗行业将对这些企业有积极影响和整体这个行业将会有一个中立的结果在即将到来的一年。 通用动力公司是世界上第六大国防承包商和公司专机的第二大手机制造商。公司维护四个业务集团包括航空航天、战斗系统、海洋系统和信息系统和技术。公司的净收益从2006 - 2008年增加(1.86 - 2.46美元),三年增加了24%。销售所有组从24.1美元增加到293亿美元,从2006年到2008年,增长了17%。 Financial Statement Analysis—— 财务报表分析 General Dynamics vs. Lockheed Martin——通用动力公司和洛克希德马丁公司
General Dynamics is the sixth largest defense contractor in the world and the second largest maker of corporate jets. The company maintains four business groups including aerospace, combat systems, marine systems and information systems and technology. Net earnings for the company increased from 2006-2008 ($1.86 to $2.46), a 24% increase over 3 years. Sales for all groups increased from $24.1 to $29.3 billion from 2006-2008, a 17% increase. The company is based in Virginia and gets 67% of its revenue from the Department of Defense. The aerospace group generated $5.5 billion (19%) in sales in 2008, mostly due to Gulfstream business jet, which include long-range and ultra-long-range jets. In response to the downturn in the economy, the production of large-body and medium-size aircraft were reduced from 87 to 73 and 69 to 24, respectively, in 2008. In product development, Gulfstream introduced 2 additions, which are the ultra-large-cabin, ultra-long-range G650 and the super-mid-size G250. Production of both of these aircrafts, which enter into service in 2011 and 2012, are foreseeable income generators based on orders placed in 2008. The combat systems group generated $8.2 billion (28%) in sales in 2008, mostly driven by demand for combat vehicles, specifically Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles. The combat system group makes, repairs and supports wheeled and tracked armored vehicles and munitions. Combat system product lines include combat vehicles, guns and ammunition systems, mobile bridge systems, armor, chemical, biological and explosion detection systems. Future opportunities include delivering hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles to Saudi Arabia between 2010 and 2012. The marine systems group generated $5.6 billion (19%) in sales in 2008, extremely productive as compared to 2007. The group delivers destroyers, submarines, logistic ship and the first commercial product carrier. Upcoming contracts include doubling production to two submarines per year beginning in 2011, which is predicted to increase revenue and earnings over the next three years. The information systems and technology generated $10 billion (34%) of sales in 2008; its biggest achievement developing a battlefield communications network program and Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS). Customers include federal civilian agencies and commercial customers, which primarily focus on electronics for land, sea and air-based weapons systems. The acquisition of two companies in the tactical communications and healthcare information technology field are indicative of the direction this group will be making in the upcoming years. Information gathered from Morningstar1.
The aeronautics segment generated 27% of sales ($11.5 billion) in 2008. The segment's primary production are the F-35 Lightning II combat aircraft which is projected to be completed in 2010. The aeronautics segment is focused on making fighter jets and military transport planes and on unmanned military aircraft. The segment also operates the Global Sustainment enterprise to ensure success throughout the life cycle of its aircraft. The electronics systems segment also generated 27% of sales in 2008 and primarily makes land, sea and air-based missiles and missile defense systems. Specifically, this segment is focused on maritime systems and sensors, missiles and fire control, and platform, training and energy. This system also manages and operates the Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy. Current projects include the Terminal Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD), the Ballistic Missile Defense system and the firehead control system for the Apache helicopter. The space systems segment generated 19% of sales ($8.2 billion) in 2008. This segment is comprised of satellites, strategic and defensive missile systems, and space transportation systems. The US government customers accounted for 96% of this segment's sales in 2008. An ongoing partner is NASA; the LMT-built Phoenix Lander will continue to rove on Mars. Another venture is with Boeing, the United Launch Alliance, which provides satellite launch services to the US government. Information systems and global services segment account for 27% of sales in 2008. This segment contains mission solutions, information systems and global services. The US government customers accounted for 93% of the segments sales in 2008. Major products/programs include communication systems, mission and combat support solutions, civil agency programs (US Census), the FAA Automated Flight Service Station, the FBI's Sentinel IT program, and various NASA programs. Collaborations and partnerships with companies around the globe enable Lockheed Martin to grow its international business both with government and industry. The establishment of Lockheed Martin Australia in 2009 indicates an international interest to grow and expand. Information gathered from Morningstar1.
On the other hand, it is estimated that there will be an increased growth of global passenger air traffic in 2010 as compared to a decline in 2009. This is based on positive air traffic growth since comparison between 2009 and 2010. Aircrafts that are less fuel-efficient in the US will also need to be upgraded and replaced with newer aircraft. The industry predictions are moderate production cuts at Boeing and Airbus, and declines in the business jet markets due to falling corporate profits.#p#分页标题#e# The industry outlook is therefore at a neutral rating, due to decreased military budget but increased commercial air traffic for 2010. Competition in the industry (Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Honeywell and Raytheon) will strive for contracts within the industry. Many of these defense contractors will face uncertainty from upcoming government decisions in the next year and hence the neutral outlook for this industry.
Financial Statement Adjustments——财务报表的调整
Adjustments
· Increase Net Income by $19 million from loss from discontinued operations net of tax
· Increase Net Income by $196 million from deferred portion of income tax · Decrease Net Income by $56 million for gain on land sale · Increase Net Income by $215 million to reverse impairment charge (215 = 314(1-.316) · Increase Net Income by $72 million to unwind deferred taxes · Subtract $246 million from Net Income for Pension Income
· Increase assets by 75% of PV of capitalized leases ($709 million) · Decrease assets by $7 million to unwind taxes (DTA) · Adjustments for LIFO reserve not added to Total Assets. Added in denominator of ITR and Current Asset in Current Ratio · Added 100% of PV of capitalization of leases to Total Liabilities ($946 million) · Subtracted 25% of PV of capitalized leases to SE ($236 million)
· Decrease SE by $7 million to unwind deferred taxes effect (-DTA; +DTL) · Decrease assets by $5,390 million to unwind deferred taxes (DTA) · Increase liabilities by 100% of PV of capitalized leases ($932 million) · Decrease SE by 25% of PV of operating leases ($233 million) · Decrease SE by $5,390 million to unwind deferred tax (-DTA; +DTL)
· Termination of A-12 program in 1991 is an unlikely contingency of $690 and is currently on appeal in the Appeals Court.
Historically, LMT common stock has proven less sensitive to the broad stock market. With a beta of .923 and using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), LMT investors require an annual rate of return of 10.2%. Although this is lower than the expected market return of 10.8% (see appendix for calculation and assumptions), it is greater than its industry (Guided Missile & Space Vehicles) expected return of 8.7%. However, although LMT may be more volatile as a stock than its competitors, it enjoyed a Return on Equity (ROE) significantly higher than the industry average.#p#分页标题#e# In 2008, LMT had an ROE of 49.2% while the industry followed with a 23.4% average ROE. Just as significant and telling is the comparison of LMT's ROE to its own required rate of return. This spread of 39% is an impressive sign as it demonstrates the amount of return LMT generated above its cost of equity capital. This is also impressive to investors at first glance, and will warrant a deeper interest from prospective investors. Much the same can be said for GD when comparing its required rate of return to its ROE. Although the spread was only 12.9%, it is still a good sign that GD generates such a return above its cost of equity. However, unlike LMT GD has a beta greater than 1 and is therefore more sensitive to stock market moves; and has an expected return less than its industry return by approximately 1.25%.
When we analyze the potential net income in the absence of debt, NOPAT, we observe that General Dynamics (9.4%) generates a higher margin over Lockheed Martin (7.8%), which allows General Dynamics to contribute more to ROE in comparison to Lockheed Martin as a result of the decreased effect interest expenses have on net income with respect to total sales revenue. However, when comparing NOPAT performance to the rest of their industry (Ship & Boat Building & Repair), General Dynamics' comes in slightly below the 9.9% average that was established for 2008, but does not necessarily signify any under-performance in this area since the industry data only takes into account two firms when generating Industry NOPAT margin averages. Lockheed Martin was similarly compared to Industry data, generated by two firms as well, in which NOPAT margins were recorded that were more than double of what was found for similarly classified companies (Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles - 3.69%).
This portion of the ROE evaluates the efficiency to produce revenue based on the investment in assets made by the company. When we begin to evaluate the simplified Asset TO values provided by the multiplicative decomposition of ROE, we observe a noticeable advantage by Lockheed Martin since they reportedly generate $1.37 for every $1.00 spent on assets. General Dynamics generate slightly lower values at $1.08 for every $1.00 spent on company assets. We then continued to analyze Asset TO, now based on the additive decomposition of ROE to see how other variables affect the turnover rates. When this approach is taken, average assets for both companies in 2008 needed to be adjusted, and was done so by pulling out all non-interest bearing liabilities (NIBL). This is where we noticed that NIBL's for Lockheed Martin ($20,742) were 62.8% higher than those reported by General Dynamics ($12,735). As a result, the Asset TO ratios increased significantly for both companies (LMT - 2.05 and GD - 4.09) with respect to assets dollars invested by each company. As we can observe, unexpected losses in each company's pension fund had led them to classify their losses as liabilities since they will still needed to be accounted for in the near future. The 32% drop in the fair value of the LMT pension fund ($27,259 down to $18,539) in 2008 and the 35% drop in the fair value of the GD pension fund ($7,452 down to $4,823)was felt somewhat more extensively by LMT, since the higher amount lost reflects LMT's larger workforce of 140,000 employees. GD, although enduring a similar percentage drop in fund value, only accommodates a workforce of 91,000, and therefore lost less in overall value amount.#p#分页标题#e#
When we analyze leverage, we are analyzing each company's ability and efficiency in using interest bearing debt to generate revenue. The higher the leverage value, the better the ability of a company is at using invested funds (IBL's) to obtain desired revenues. When evaluating LMT's and GD's effect of leverage as a result of their 2008 results, we observe that the numbers generated by LMT (0.17) are over three times higher than those generated by GD (0.05) during the same time period. As we continue to drill down into the effect of leverage, we notice that ROA is also higher for LMT as a result of the large variation in NIBL's between the two companies. Although a higher leverage effect value may indicate that LMT relies more on interest bearing debt to generate more sales revenue, an analysis of interest bearing liabilities for both LMT and GD was performed based on data available at the end of 2007 and 2008. This analysis revealed that LMT had reduced their interest bearing liabilities ($4,407 down to $3,805) while GD, whom recorded a smaller leverage effect, had done the opposite and showed to have increased their interest bearing liabilities ($2,791 increased to $4,024) by the end of 2008.
General Dynamics
39.51 From the results presented above, General Dynamics demonstrates that it under-performed the rest of the industry by exceeding the average account receivable days by 7 days. In contrast, Lockheed Martin out-performed the rest of its industry by having recorded an account receivable average of 43.62 days, which means LMT was collecting from customers on an average of 13.5 days ahead of the rest of the industry.
33.88 - GD is collecting from customers on average over 2 days past the industry average of 31.50 days - LMT is collecting just ½ day over the industry average of 19.66 days
25.97 - GD is turning inventory on average over 30 days under the industry average of 56.62 days - LMT is turning inventory on average over 3 days over the industry average of 13.55 days Interest Coverage
General Dynamics
29.57 - GD could cover its yearly interest expenses 29.57 times in 2008, just under its industry average of 30.43 times#p#分页标题#e# - LMT could cover its yearly interest expenses 29.57 times in 2008, significantly over its industry average of 5.49 times
Abnormal net income was computed as predicted net income less the cost of equity capital. Predicted net income was computed using 2008 pro forma net income of $2,674 and implementing annual growth rates suggested by Goldman Sachs earnings forecasts5. The growth rates from 2009 through 2013 were -2.9%, 7.3%, 5.2%, 7.3% and 7.8% respectively. The same earnings forecasts were used to calculate the predicted dividends. The predicted dividends from 2009 to 2013 are 577, 617, 643, 671 and 700 respectively. The terminal value assumption used in computing abnormal net income was the competitive equilibrium on incremental real sales assumption. This strategy was chosen because the government is one of General Dynamics' most significant customers, comprising approximately 67% of the company's revenue. This lead to the assumption that General Dynamics may not need to invest a large amount of resources in developing new customers and that most of their future growth would be lead by existing customers. This assumption provided a terminal value of $21,999. The cost of capital for General Dynamics was calculated using a beta of 1.119, a risk free rate of 5% and a market risk premium of 4%. This produced a cost of capital of 9.5%. The present value of abnormal net income was calculated to be $20,265, by dividing abnormal net income by a discounting factor derived using the cost of capital. The present value of abnormal net income was combined with the initial book value of $9,810 to produce an estimated predicted price of $30,075. This price was divided by the number of shares outstanding according to the 2008 annual report to arrive at an estimated share price of $77.71. The equity valuation for Lockheed Martin for 2008 produced an estimated share price of $85.93, which is slightly higher than the actual share price as of the end of 2008 of $84.08. This shows the stock was slightly overvalued. This shows investors may have been overly optimistic in their opinion of Lockheed Martin's earnings potential. Abnormal net income was computed just as that of General Dynamics. Using analysts' reports6, estimated (negative) growth rates of (6%), (7%), (6.6%), 11% and 8.92% were applied to the 2008 pro forma net income of $3,114. The same terminal value assumption was used for Lockheed Martin as was used for General Dynamics. The US government is a substantial customer of Lockheed Martin's, which lead to the assumption that a large portion of future growth could be attributed to existing customers and few resources could be devoted to developing new customers. The terminal value assumption provided a terminal value of $41,132. The cost of equity capital was calculated using a beta of .923, a risk free rate of 4% and a market risk premium of 5%. The 8.7% cost of capital was used to find the present value of abnormal net income of $37.936. This present value was combined with an initial book value of ($2,758) to produce an estimated price of $35,178. The estimated price divided by the number of shares outstanding per the Lockheed Martin annual report to arrive at a per-share price of $85.93.#p#分页标题#e#
CAPM = Rf Rate + (Beta*Rmrkt)
LMT Beta =
GD = .0377 + 1.119*.07
GD
2008
Beginning assets
Ending assets
Beginning equity
Ending equity
Beginning interest-bearing liabilities
Ending interest-bearing liabilities
Net income (pro forma)
Sales revenue
Other revenue
Research & development expense
Selling, general & administrative expense
Income tax expense
Income tax rate
Interest expense
Beginning inventory
Ending inventory
Cost of goods sold
Beginning accounts receivable
Ending accounts receivable
Beginning accounts payable
Ending accounts payable
Shares outstanding
Closing price per share
Average equity
Average interest-bearing liabilities
Average accounts receivable
Average inventory
Average accounts payable
After-tax interest rate
ROE
Net profit margin
Asset turnover
Leverage
ROE
Market-to-book
Asset turnover
ROA
Spread
Leverage
Effect of leverage
Gross profit margin
Accounts payable days
Cash-to-cash cycle
Interest coverage
Debt ratio
Cumulative Financial Statement Adjustments
Unwind tax effects
Pension Income
Adjusted Net Income
Total Liabilities as reported
of operating leases
Pension Income Pro Forma Calculation——养老金收入形式上的计算
Net postretirement plan cost
Total cost
Percentage
2
Funded status other postretirement plans
Total funded status
Difference
Expected return
Implied asset base
Actual return percentage
Pro forma expected rate
Pro forma expected return
Less: Original expected return
Difference (reduction in pension income)
1 - Effective tax rate
Adjustment (reduction) to net income
Lockheed Martin Pension Income Pro Forma Calculation
Net postretirement plan cost
Total cost
Percentage
2
Funded status other postretirement plans
Total funded status
Difference
Expected return
Implied asset base
Actual return percentage
Pro forma expected rate
Pro forma expected return
Less: Original expected return
Difference (reduction in pension income)
1 - Effective tax rate
Adjustment (reduction) to net income General Dynamics
Enter interest rate below:
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 & thereafter
Calculation of Present Value of Operating Lease Payments:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PV of operating lease commitments
Total Assets (increased by….)
Total Shareholders Equity (decreased by….)
Total Liabilities (increased by…..) Lockheed Martin Capitalization of Operating Leases Enter interest rate below:
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 & thereafter
Calculation of Present Value of Operating Lease Payments:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PV of operating lease commitments
Total Assets (increased by….)
Total Shareholders Equity (decreased by….)
Total Liabilities (increased by…..) |