萨塞克斯大学金融分析毕业论文 literature review 范文

Although to national consumer confidence index compiled, there are many differences in background, the start time, release frequency, depth of research, origins consumer confidence indicators are derived from the judgment of the macroeconomic situation and forecast. Therefore, this chapter in the right research consumer confidence index literature review process, the literature of different countries and regions in accordance with the macro-economic entity, and stock  Shenzhen composite index both classification, aimed to send a comprehensive and complete understanding of the consumer confidence indicator system exhibition context and research process.

 

Preparation and application of international consumer confidence index began in the mid-century, so many scholars spent a long time and a lot of energy in consumer confidence predictors and the correlation. Especially in the University of Michigan and CB (Conference Consumer confidence index Board) which had compiled its research specifically since that time, mainly by consumer confidence, including two aspects of the relationship between indicators and macro economic variables entity and its relationship with the stock market  Shenzhen composite index of the composition. The following study abroad consumer confidence index will be classified summarize, organize consumer confidence index role and significance of the variables in the real economy and the stock market  Shenzhen composite index in two ways.
 

Scholars on consumer confidence indicators and macro economic variables associated entities degree of predictability studies starting early, but also a wider scope of the study, studied the national GDP forecast, consumer spending and sub-regional economic variables explain predict and many other aspects, which are more representative Research has Muelle (1963), Batchelor and Pami (1998), Gattet (2004) and several other scholars.
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Mueller (1963) 10-year consumer confidence index compiled by the University of Michigan as a starting point, and found that current and lag indicators of the consumer confidence index were able to explain consumer spending, and its mutual 
 

A causal relationship, which can effectively explain the law changes Batchelor and Pami (1998) using the consumer confidence index and the GDP forecast value data from 1979 to 1993 the United States during the period, were used regression analysis and econometric analysis of two samples within-sample regression methods to assess the accuracy of the predicted value of the American GDP. Found that when the United States at this stage making economic forecasts, excessive emphasis on the traditional model predictive variables, ignoring the consumer confidence index is representative of the many typical leading indicator, resulting in the American economy in the 1990s predicted effect poor. Empirical research Batchelor and Pami will clever combination of economic growth and consumer confidence index up, come to the conclusion index can effectively predict the American 1990s recession conditions.
 

Compared with mutual funds, although the scale of stock markets is limited, but people can unrestricted use of leverage, and flexible change strategy, which makes transactions active. Greenwich Associate (2006) reports that stock markets in fixed CCI and credit markets is in the dominant role, transaction objects include the vast majority of credit derivatives. In a series of risk transfer markets the emergence of stock markets showed its leadership in financial innovation,which will help promote market integrity.