商业经济学dissertation-评估公共和个人决策对经济的作用

　　移民对英国经济成本的效益分析

　　A cost – benefit analysis of immigration to the UK economy

　　评估公共和个人决策对经济的作用

　　The role of economic evaluation within public and private decision making

　　Rationale

　　通过对经济评估过程中的识别、计量、估值和比较特定项目的成本及收益，可以对一些经济问题进行评估，从而得到一个可行的结果。这样的评估通常由政府或公司承担，并会伴随着一定的成本节约措施。无论在任何事情上，评估进行时这四个方便都必须考虑到具体的方面。

　　Economic evaluation is the process in which the identification, measurement, valuation and comparison of the costs and benefits of a particular project in question are evaluated to assess a feasible outcome. An evaluation is normally conducted by the Government on potential policies for example or a firm for potential cost saving measures. No matter on the conductor, the evaluation is carried out for the same four specific reasons which must be considered.

　　当进行经济评估的时候，最理想的结果可以更有效地分配可用利用资源的成本。这是因为影响效益的决策总是有一个损失和增收的成本。

　　When conducting an economic evaluation it is desired that the outcome will allocate resources available more effectively and efficiently by the use of opportunity cost. This is the cost and the benefit of decision-making as there is always a loss and always a gain.

　　Mostly concerned with Government, the effectiveness of a potential policy in the form of laws and regulation are measured. A technique used by the Government is known as ‘evidence-based’ policy making. This is where an area is researched in order to evaluate the policy which can eradicate or amend a current problem in the economy. (odi.org, 28 March 2010)

　　Evaluations are carried out in order to promote awareness of issues or events in an economy. For example does a specific event such as a global warming awareness concert add to our economic benefits or does it decrease our awareness and eat through our budget?

　　The final purpose is to attract funding, such as that which would be received through Government, or to justify funding in an economy.

　　Examples

　　An example of an evaluation already conducted is research by Manuel Zymelman on vocational training programs. In his evaluation he makes use of techniques such as cost utility analysis to evaluate the benefits that these programs give our economy as opposed to other programs such as on and off the job training. (Zymelman, M 1976)

　　Another example of a previous evaluation was carried out by the Moffat Centre for Travel and Tourism Business Development in Glasgow Caledonian University for the Ayrshire and Arran Tourist Board in 2003. It evaluated the impact of the Burns festival which were mainly social based, analysing the implications on the local tourist industry, residents and visitors. They made use of both qualitative and quantitative methods used for this example based in the form of surveys and intercept analysis. (Moffat Centre for Travel and Tourism Business Development)#p#分页标题#e#

　　ROAMEF model

　　Involved in the economic appraisal function is the ROAMEF framework, this being an acronym for Rationale, Objectives, Appraisal, Monitoring, Evaluation and Feedback illustrated in Figure 1.0. It is used to structure effective feedback on the project and their findings.

　　Figure 1.0 ‘The ROAMEF Model’ (Source: HM-Treasury. (1975). Green Book.
　　The ROAMEF model is recommended by the ‘Green Book’ when conducting an economic evaluation.

　　The ‘Green Book’ is a guide to how the Government conducts the research required to evaluate the feasibility of potential policies or project funding. (HM-Treasury, 1975)

　　The guide focuses on the Appraisal and Evaluation sections of the ROAMEF model and their importance in the research. In the ‘Green Book’ Appraisal is emphasised to be important as it provides the answer of if a project is worth doing and the Evaluation stage in the process usually occurs after the event and is used to educate future projects.

　　Advantages

　　Advantages of economic evaluations when used in research projects are mainly in the informed assistance it provides to the researcher and to the wider parties involved. It allows for an educated solution based on research to a problem posed following the SMART (Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant and Time-dependent) objective plan (dfpni.gov. 14 March 2010). The evaluation allows a simple and transparent analysis of the data through accurate accountability to the topic and information provided (strath.ac 14 March 2010). An example of a successful economic evaluation is that of the impact of the seabird centre in North Berwick carried out by the Scottish Enterprise in order to assess the outcome of extra funding for the centre in future years. Another example is the study of the impact of the MTV music awards hosted in Edinburgh again conducted by the Scottish Enterprise.

　　Evidence based policy making

　　Evidence based policy making is a term which refers to the research commissioned to support a policy which has already been decided upon. It is a deductive approach to research as it works backward from the policy to the evidence based support.

　　An article by Shaxson, L. Compiled in 2005, believes that 'Evidence is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for any decision-making process.' In the journal article, Shaxson identifies five main components of strong evidence; credibility, generalisability, reliability, objectivity and rootedness or authenticity. All of the components are equally as necessary for evidence based policy making according to Shaxson. (odi, 2005)

　　Critique of economic evaluation

　　Disadvantages of economic evaluations are the lack of anticipation of unforeseen circumstances such as problems in the research due to lack of information for example. There may also be the problem of a biased view altering the outcome, for example the research may be primarily focused on a one sided argument to produce a favourable outcome. (strath.ac,14 March 2010)#p#分页标题#e#

　　Methodologies used in Evaluation

　　Main methods which can be used in economic evaluations are: cost effectiveness analysis, cost utility analysis, cost benefit analysis, cost minimisation analysis and environmental and social impact assessments.

　　Cost effectiveness analysis is a method designed to highlight the optimum cost saving way of completing a project or conducting research. It effectively supports objective decision making through evaluating the given options in similar terms which relate to each other and can evaluate programs. http://ukthesis.org/jr/ It also allows for a strategic review of organisations which leads to effective decision making.

　　If child immunisation is used to illustrate this example, the cost of increasing the amount of mobile vaccination units may be less than increasing the spending on fixed clinical vaccinations. This would be even more apparent given the area of the children in question, for example they may be in a remote location that does not allow for the fixed clinical vaccinations.

　　Disadvantages of cost effectiveness analysis are that it is more so related to the health sector when used for evaluation and even then it is difficult to determine the most effective solution to a problem posed.

　　Cost utility analysis, which is linked to cost effective analysis, is primarily used when on the subject of Healthcare Economics. This method focuses on the utility gained from treatments given, using the method of evaluation known as QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Years). If an individual receives a low QALY estimation then the treatment is deemed not to produce a significant impact on that particular individuals life circumstances and may not increase their life by a significant amount.

　　Using the QALY as an example of this, consider the hypothetical scenario of patient A. She is an elderly woman at 92 years old and has a heart condition which would normally be eligible for a transplant. If the technique of cost utility analysis was used to evaluate her life

　　chance after obtaining a new heart it would result in a low QALY due to her old age. Other factors such as the QALY effect on a child with the same condition would also be considered when implementing the decision.