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宏观和微观经济驱动力 Macro and Micro Economic Drivers

时间:2018-03-19 09:16来源:www.ukthesis.org 作者:英国论文网 点击联系客服: 客服:Damien
在宏观层面上,通过研究商业周期波动,可以更好地理解全球企业管理的复杂性。然而,随着微观经济力量的存在,复杂性进一步增强,我们将利用Michael Porter的五力模型来研究。 
商业周期波动是跨国公司利润的主要驱动力。因此,准确地了解商业周期波动的长度和深度,是成功规划企业投资和制定适当战略的一个重要因素。在过去的五十年中,大多数国家的经济衰退的频率和深度都有所下降,这就是所谓的“大缓和”。然而,从2007年底开始的大萧条结束了这一格局。理解大缓和的原因是至关重要的,因为它有助于了解宏观经济环境的未来格局。 
经济衰退的两个重要方面是信贷紧缩和失业增加。然而,这些情况在各国之间有很大差异。而在德国和丹麦的失业率增加不多,西班牙已从过去的8%提高到20%。 
 
At a macro level, the complexity of global corporate management can be better understood by studying the Business Cycle Fluctuations. However, the complexity is further intensified with the existence of micro economic forces, which we will be studying using Michael Porter's Five Forces model.
 
MACRO-ECONOMIC FORCES 宏观经济的力量
 
Business cycle fluctuations are a key driver of multinationals’ profits. An accurate understanding of the length and depth of business-cycle fluctuations is therefore an important element in successful planning of firms’ investments as well as in forming the appropriate strategies. During the last fifty years there have been a decline in frequency and depth of recessions in a large majority of countries in what is known as the Great Moderation. However, the Great Recession that began at the end of 2007 brought this pattern to an end. Understanding the causes of the Great Moderation is critical as it helps in understanding the future patterns of the macroeconomic environment.
 
Two important aspects of recessions are tightening of credit conditions and increased unemployment. However, these conditions significantly differed across countries. While in Germany or Denmark the unemployment rate did not increase much, in Spain it has increased from 8% to over 20%.
 
The Great Recession should be seen as a wakeup call for the risks of globalisation. Increased trade volumes that have come with globalisation is the international amplification of downturns in large developed economies such as the U.S., Japan and the EU. Increased financial integration paralysed developing countries from counteracting the global effects of these shocks. As a result, domestic recessions in developed economies contribute with a significant destabilizing force towards developing countries.
 
This new reality was hard to anticipate 10 years ago when the consensus was that openness to international capital was the main destabilizing factor of developing economies. However, China did not experience any currency crisis in the 1990s and became the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, together with effective capital controls, China maintained an artificially low RMB that helped it grow its export markets. Despite China’s productivity miracle had many factors, one of the most important was the acceleration at which Chinese companies mastered increasingly sophisticated technologies.(责任编辑:cinq)


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